# Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Tirol > Admiral Bundesliga · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/872) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Wolfsberger AC 2–0 WSG Tirol ## Model verdict - **Wolfsberger AC win:** 68% - **Draw:** 23% - **WSG Tirol win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear home edge as visitors limp into late-season test ## The stage This fixture arrives on Sat 16 May 2026 with a 15:00 UTC kickoff in the Admiral Bundesliga[^fact-1]. The scheduling places both teams under late-season pressure, but the pre-match numbers position the hosts as heavy favourites according to the model[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent results for both sides read similarly on paper: each has three wins, three draws and four defeats in their last ten matches, yielding 1.20 points per game for both teams[^fact-4][^fact-5]. That parity in raw results masks a meaningful quality gap when ratings are applied: the home side carries an Elo advantage of +180 points after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. The model translates that edge into a 68% probability for a home win, a 23% probability of a draw and only a 9% chance for an away victory[^fact-2]. Goal rates diverge defensively: the hosts average 0.90 goals scored and concede 1.30 per match in the recent run[^fact-4], while the visitors average 1.10 scored but concede 2.00 per match, pointing to a softer back line[^fact-5]. ## Personnel In-form contributors are limited but instructive. For the hosts, Fabian Wohlmuth has delivered two assists and no goals across his last five appearances, posting an average rating of 6.86[^fact-9]. That output underlines a supporting influence rather than a heavy scoring dependency[^fact-9]. The visitors had Marco Boras as their statistical bright spot with one goal and one assist in his last five matches and an average rating of 7.09, but he is suspended and will be missing after contributing 877 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10][^fact-12]. The hosts will also be without Jessic Ngankam through injury; Ngankam logged 394 minutes in the recent run before the absence[^fact-11]. Those absences matter: the visitors lose their highest-rated recent performer[^fact-10][^fact-12], while the hosts lose a player who supplied significant minutes in recent matches[^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model[^fact-13]. The clearest discrepancy sits on the Match Winner market: the model prices a Home win at 72% while the market shows a price of 2.12 at 22Bet — an implied market probability materially lower than the model by 24.4 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Secondary edges exist in goal markets. The Over 2.5 goals line carries a model probability of 59% versus a market price of 1.92 at Sbo, producing a 7.1 percentage point edge (mid confidence)[^fact-7]. A third, lower-confidence divergence is the 'No' on Both Teams to Score: the model assigns 48% versus a market price of 2.25 at WilliamHill, an edge of 3.5 percentage points (low confidence)[^fact-8]. The model’s heavy home probability is consistent with the Elo advantage and the visitors’ elevated goals-conceded rate[^fact-3][^fact-5], which creates asymmetric market value across both match result and total goals products. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward the hosts with a 68% home probability and a large 45 percentage-point gap in confidence over the runner-up signal, reflecting the +180 Elo edge and the visitors’ defensive fragility[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. Players missing on both sides alter marginal expectations — the visitors lose their most productive recent performer while the hosts also carry a notable injury absence[^fact-12][^fact-10][^fact-11] — but the aggregate picture remains a clear home advantage. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 15:00 UTC — Admiral Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 68% / Draw 23% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 45 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — WAC vs WSG — Elo differential +180 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **WAC recent form** — WWWLD last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **WSG recent form** — DLWDD last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 72% vs market price 2.12 at 22Bet, edge 24.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 59% vs market price 1.92 at Sbo, edge 7.1 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 48% vs market price 2.25 at WilliamHill, edge 3.5 pp (low confidence). [^fact-9]: **WAC in-form player** — Fabian Wohlmuth — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.86. [^fact-10]: **WSG in-form player** — Marco Boras — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.09. [^fact-11]: **WAC key absence** — Jessic Ngankam out (injury), 394 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **WSG key absence** — Marco Boras out (suspension), 877 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .