# Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Tirol > Admiral Bundesliga · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/872) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Wolfsberger AC win:** 70% - **Draw:** 24% - **WSG Tirol win:** 6% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Home | 2.12 | 22Bet | 70% | +22.6 pp | | totals | Under | 1.95 | bet365 | 54% | +3.1 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear home edge as WAC chase control with key striker absent ## The stage Saturday’s kickoff is set for 15:00 UTC in an Admiral Bundesliga fixture that hands Wolfsberger AC home advantage against WSG Tirol[^fact-1]. The match sits as a straightforward measuring stick: the model assigns a strong home probability, putting Wolfsberger as clear favourites[^fact-2]. The market comparison work in this piece examined three different markets against that model view[^fact-12]. ## Form & momentum Recent results paint both sides with identical win-draw-loss counts across their last 10 outings, but the underlying numbers favour the hosts. Wolfsberger’s last 10 are recorded as WWWLD (3-3-4 W-D-L) with 1.20 points per game, scoring 0.90 and conceding 1.30 on average per match[^fact-4]. WSG’s sequence is DLWDD (3-3-4 W-D-L) and also 1.20 points per game, but the goal profile differs: 1.10 scored and 2.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. That defensive gulf is amplified when the model’s strength estimate is considered: Wolfsberger carry an Elo edge of +180 points after applying home advantage[^fact-3]. The model verdict translates that edge into probabilities of Home 70%, Draw 24% and Away 6%, a wide gap between first and second that indicates a high-confidence lean toward the hosts[^fact-2]. On balance of form and Elo, Wolfsberger enter the fixture as the clearer side to control the game. ## Personnel Wolfsberger’s in-form contributor flagged in the data is Fabian Wohlmuth, who has delivered 0 goals and 2 assists across his last five appearances and posts an average rating of 6.91 in that stretch[^fact-8]. His recent outputs look tailored to a support role rather than finishing, which matters more if Wolfsberger are expected to carry the bulk of possession and chance creation[^fact-4][^fact-3]. WSG’s most notable recent performer in the provided dataset is Marco Boras, who recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.09[^fact-9]. That influence is substantial in relative terms, but Boras will be unavailable here through suspension — a heavy loss quantified by his 877 minutes in the recent run the data captures[^fact-11]. Wolfsberger also face a notable absence: Jessic Ngankam is out injured after accumulating 394 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. Both sides therefore lose forward minutes, but the suspension of Boras removes WSG’s top recent creator from the pitch and accentuates the defensive fragility already visible in their goals conceded figure[^fact-5][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Two value signals emerged from the comparison between model probabilities and market prices. First, the model prices the Home match-winner at 70% versus a market price of 2.12 available at 22Bet — an edge of 22.6 percentage points, labelled with high confidence in the dataset[^fact-6]. Second, the model assigns 54% to Under 2.5 goals against a market price of 1.95 at bet365, implying a smaller edge of 3.1 percentage points and noted as low confidence in the source material[^fact-7]. Both market comparisons were part of the three markets analysed for this report[^fact-12]. Those edges sit on top of the match fundamentals already outlined: a meaningful Elo advantage for WAC[^fact-3], identical point-per-game outputs but divergent defensive records for the visitors[^fact-4][^fact-5], and the absence of WSG’s suspended key contributor in Marco Boras[^fact-11]. The Home pricing gap is therefore the standout market inefficiency in the supplied numbers, and the under/over call is a secondary signal with much less conviction[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is unequivocal: Home 70%, Draw 24%, Away 6% — a clear tilt toward Wolfsberger supported by a +180 Elo differential and the pattern of goals conceded that penalises WSG[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. Absences on both sides remove attacking minutes, but the suspension of Marco Boras is the heavier disruption to the visitor’s recent output[^fact-11][^fact-10]. Overall, the balance of the supplied data favours a Wolfsberger-controlled match with limited confidence that the fixture will be high-scoring[^fact-2][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 15:00 UTC — Admiral Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 70% / Draw 24% / Away 6% (source: model; confidence high, 46 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — WAC vs WSG — Elo differential +180 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **WAC recent form** — WWWLD last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **WSG recent form** — DLWDD last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 70% vs market price 2.12 at 22Bet, edge 22.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 1.95 at bet365, edge 3.1 pp (low confidence). [^fact-8]: **WAC in-form player** — Fabian Wohlmuth — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.91. [^fact-9]: **WSG in-form player** — Marco Boras — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.09. [^fact-10]: **WAC key absence** — Jessic Ngankam out (injury), 394 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **WSG key absence** — Marco Boras out (suspension), 877 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .