# Wisła Płock vs Górnik Zabrze > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 15:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/873) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Wisła Płock 0–1 Górnik Zabrze ## Model verdict - **Wisła Płock win:** 14% - **Draw:** 41% - **Górnik Zabrze win:** 45% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw-heavy forecast as unders and clean sheets look likeliest outcome ## The stage Saturday’s kick-off is scheduled for 15:30 UTC in a midweek-feel late-season Ekstraklasa fixture, with the timing and competition explicitly set out.[^fact-1] This match carries the statistical framing of a close encounter according to the model: a low probability for the home win, a strong lean toward a two-way outcome with the away side marginally preferred — Home 14% / Draw 41% / Away 45% — and the model flags its own confidence as low with only a 4 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome.[^fact-2] ## Form & momentum Recent form lines point to different stability profiles. Wisła Płock have produced LLLWW across their last 10 results and sit at 4 wins, 0 draws, 6 losses in that span; their points-per-game over that period is 1.20, with an attacking return of 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match.[^fact-4] Górnik Zabrze arrive in steadier shape: DLWWD in their last 10, recorded as 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses, and they average 1.60 points per game with 1.10 goals scored and just 0.80 conceded per match.[^fact-5] The raw Elo picture, adjusted for home advantage, gives Górnik the edge: an Elo differential of -26 points in the Wisła Płock versus Górnik comparison, favouring the visitors after home adjustment.[^fact-3] Taken together, form and Elo suggest Górnik are the less volatile side: they concede less, score more, and hold the Elo edge, while Wisła Płock’s net goal output and higher goals conceded rate mark them as the side more likely to be destabilised.[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3] ## Personnel Wisła Płock’s in-form spotlight is Wiktor Nowak, who has contributed 1 goal and 0 assists over his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 6.92 in that sample.[^fact-9] Górnik Zabrze’s short-term form burden falls on Rafal Janicki, who has netted 2 goals with 0 assists in his last five outings and posts an average rating of 7.03 in that period.[^fact-10] A clear structural absence for Wisła Płock compounds their selection concerns: Marcus Haglind-Sangré is suspended and unavailable after logging 900 minutes in the recent run, removing a heavy-minute contributor from the lineup.[^fact-11] ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model.[^fact-12] 1) Under 2.5 goals: the model assigns a 73% probability to under 2.5 goals while the market price at Pinnacle sits at 1.88, leaving the model an edge of 19.4 percentage points and labelled with high confidence.[^fact-6] 2) Both Teams to Score — No: the model puts this outcome at 67% against a market price of 2.00 at Betfair, a 16.9 percentage-point edge and again tagged as high confidence.[^fact-7] 3) Match Winner — Draw: the model gives a 45% chance to the draw versus a market price of 3.50 at Betfair, producing a 16.7 percentage-point edge, another high-confidence discrepancy between model and market.[^fact-8] Those three value signals form a coherent cluster: the model expects a low-scoring match with a substantial possibility of a stalemate and a meaningful chance of only one side finding the net. The high-confidence tags attached to each edge emphasise the model’s consistency across scoring and result markets in this fixture.[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8] ## Verdict The model leans away from a home success and instead favours a low-scoring, draw-leaning outcome: Away is marginally favoured in the match probability split (Home 14% / Draw 41% / Away 45%) while the strongest, high-confidence edges sit with Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score — No, and the Draw in Match Winner, creating a tight, defence-tilted match narrative going into kickoff.[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 15:30 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 14% / Draw 41% / Away 45% (source: model; confidence low, 4 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Wisła Płock vs Górnik Zabrze — Elo differential -26 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Wisła Płock recent form** — LLLWW last 10: 4-0-6 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Górnik Zabrze recent form** — DLWWD last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 73% vs market price 1.88 at Pinnacle, edge 19.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 67% vs market price 2.00 at Betfair, edge 16.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Draw in Match Winner — model 45% vs market price 3.50 at Betfair, edge 16.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **Wisła Płock in-form player** — Wiktor Nowak — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.92. [^fact-10]: **Górnik Zabrze in-form player** — Rafal Janicki — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.03. [^fact-11]: **Wisła Płock key absence** — Marcus Haglind-Sangré out (suspension), 900 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .