# Lausanne Sport vs Grasshopper > Super League · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 16:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/876) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Lausanne Sport 1–3 Grasshopper ## Model verdict - **Lausanne Sport win:** 75% - **Draw:** 13% - **Grasshopper win:** 12% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home side heavy favourites after large Elo and model edge ## The stage This is a Super League fixture kicking off Sat 16 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The match sits late in the campaign and is presented by the model as a clear home opportunity: a 75% chance for the home side, with draw and away probabilities at 13% and 12% respectively[^fact-2]. That split drives every subsequent line and framing for the game. ## Form & momentum Recent form offers a mixed picture but one that reinforces the model’s lean. The home side arrive with a LLLWL sequence in their last ten matches, officially recorded as 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats, yielding 1.20 points per game and an average of 1.20 goals scored while conceding 2.00 per match[^fact-4]. The visitors’ last ten show WLLLW — 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 defeats — producing 0.60 points per game, 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those raw results already tilt toward the hosts, but the model’s confidence is further backed by an Elo differential of +180 points in favour of the home side after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. That Elo gap is substantial and matches the model’s high-confidence separation between its top pick and the runner-up (a 62 percentage-point gap)[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Two players stand out for recent form. Jamie Roche has contributed two goals and no assists across his last five appearances, registering an average match rating of 7.05[^fact-8]. For the visitors, Jonathan Asp Jensen has one goal and two assists in his last five with an average rating of 6.93[^fact-9]. Availability issues hit both teams: Kévin Mouanga is absent for the hosts through injury after logging 797 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10], and the visitors are without Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom due to suspension after 840 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. Those minutes figures indicate both were significant contributors in recent rotations and their absences deserve attention when considering how each side will compensate[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies two clear edges versus market pricing across three markets analysed[^fact-12]. First, the Match Winner market: the model assigns a 75% probability to the home win while the market price on 22Bet implies a lower probability at decimal 1.77, producing an edge of 18.5 percentage points in favour of the home selection (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, the model flags Under 2.5 goals as a value outcome: the model probability is 48% versus a Pinnacle market price implying a lower probability at decimal 2.96, yielding a 13.8 percentage-point edge (high confidence)[^fact-7]. These two edges are mutually coherent with the underlying footprint: a significant Elo advantage for the hosts[^fact-3], modest recent scoring rates for both sides (1.20 and 1.00 goals per match respectively)[^fact-4][^fact-5], and defensive fragility on both lines (2.00 and 2.60 goals conceded per match respectively)[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s high confidence in the home pick is quantified by the large percentage-point gap between first and second choices in its distribution[^fact-2]. Markets analysed for these conclusions number three in total[^fact-12]. ## Verdict The quantitative picture is clear: a sizable Elo edge and a model that places a 75% probability on the home outcome frame this as a home-favouring matchup[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Recent form and the makeup of absences and in-form performers add nuance — both teams have defensive vulnerabilities but the visitors have been the poorer run side on points and goals per game[^fact-5][^fact-4]. The model’s top value signals are the home match-winner and Under 2.5 goals, each flagged with high confidence against market prices[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 16:00 UTC — Super League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 75% / Draw 13% / Away 12% (source: model; confidence high, 62 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LAU vs GRA — Elo differential +180 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LAU recent form** — LLLWL last 10: 4-0-6 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **GRA recent form** — WLLLW last 10: 2-0-8 (W-D-L), 0.60 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 2.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 75% vs market price 1.77 at 22Bet, edge 18.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 48% vs market price 2.96 at Pinnacle, edge 13.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **LAU in-form player** — Jamie Roche — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.05. [^fact-9]: **GRA in-form player** — Jonathan Asp Jensen — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.93. [^fact-10]: **LAU key absence** — Kévin Mouanga out (injury), 797 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **GRA key absence** — Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom out (suspension), 840 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .