# Standard Liège vs Genk > Pro League · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 16:15 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/878) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Standard Liège 0–0 Genk ## Model verdict - **Standard Liège win:** 17% - **Draw:** 36% - **Genk win:** 47% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model Favors Genk; draw and low-scoring edges stand out ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 16 May 2026, 16:15 UTC in the Pro League[^fact-1]. This match sits in the run-in with implications implied by model probabilities: the algorithm assigns Home 17% / Draw 36% / Away 47%, a view expressed with mid confidence and an 11 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Standard Liège arrive with a last-10 sequence of WWDLW, recorded as 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats, yielding 1.80 points per game and averaging 1.70 goals scored while conceding 0.90 per match in that window[^fact-4]. Genk’s recent 10 matches read WLDDW — 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats — worth 1.60 points per game, with 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded on average[^fact-5]. The model applies a home advantage and still grants Standard an Elo edge of +68 points after that adjustment[^fact-3]. Taken together, the data shows Standard with a slightly sharper defensive record in the recent sample and Genk with a marginally higher attacking output in the same period[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Casper Nielsen is highlighted for Standard Liège, contributing 3 goals and 1 assist across his last 5 appearances with an average match rating of 7.27 in that spell[^fact-9]. For Genk, Junya Ito brings direct creation: 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 5 outings, with a higher average rating of 7.60 over that period[^fact-10]. Availability concerns bite both sides: Josué Homawoo is ruled out for Standard, having logged 704 minutes in the recent run-up prior to his absence[^fact-11], while Genk will be without Mujaid Sadick, who had 550 minutes in the same recent sample before missing action[^fact-12]. These absences remove regular minutes from each backline and should be considered when weighing defensive solidity[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were performed against the model[^fact-13], and they produced consistent edges on conservative outcomes. First, the model places a 41% probability on a draw in Match Winner versus a market price of 3.65 at Pinnacle, an edge of 13.6 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. Second, the model assigns 58% to Under 2.5 goals against a market price of 2.10 at bet365, an edge of 10.0 percentage points, again with high confidence[^fact-7]. Third, the model gives 50% to No on Both Teams to Score compared with a market price of 2.25 at bet365, an edge of 5.5 percentage points and labelled mid confidence[^fact-8]. All three comparisons derive from the three markets analysed by the model[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model leans toward Genk as the single most likely outcome but places a large weight on deadlock and low scoring: Away 47% / Draw 36% / Home 17% (mid confidence, 11 pp gap to the runner-up), with specific value identified on the draw, Under 2.5 goals and No BTTS per the market comparisons[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 16:15 UTC — Pro League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 17% / Draw 36% / Away 47% (source: model; confidence mid, 11 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — STL vs GNK — Elo differential +68 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **STL recent form** — WWDLW last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **GNK recent form** — WLDDW last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 41% vs market price 3.65 at Pinnacle, edge 13.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 58% vs market price 2.10 at bet365, edge 10.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 50% vs market price 2.25 at bet365, edge 5.5 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **STL in-form player** — Casper Nielsen — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.27. [^fact-10]: **GNK in-form player** — Junya Ito — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.60. [^fact-11]: **STL key absence** — Josué Homawoo out (injury), 704 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **GNK key absence** — Mujaid Sadick out (injury), 550 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .