# Almería vs Las Palmas > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 16:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/879) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Almería 1–2 Las Palmas ## Model verdict - **Almería win:** 64% - **Draw:** 25% - **Las Palmas win:** 11% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home advantage and goals: model leans decisively to favorites ## The stage Saturday’s kick-off lands at 16:30 UTC, a late-afternoon window in La Liga 2 that gives the home side a full day to prepare[^fact-1]. The contest pits Almería against Las Palmas, with the fixture carrying league points and the usual second-division pressures[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Almería arrive on a clear positive run: their last 10 matches read DWWWL and the underlying numbers show 1.90 points per game with 2.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Las Palmas bring a similar streak of wins — LWWWL across their last 10 — and a slightly lower 1.80 points per game, scoring 1.40 and conceding 1.50 on average in that span[^fact-5]. The statistical pedigree tilts sharply toward the hosts when Elo is applied: Almería hold a +169-point Elo edge after adjusting for home advantage[^fact-3]. That edge is reflected in the model’s match verdict, which assigns a 64% chance to the home side, 25% to the draw and 11% to the away win, with a 39-percentage-point gap from the runner-up and high confidence[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Almería’s most productive recent presence has been Adrián Embarba, who has contributed three goals and one assist in his last five appearances while averaging a 7.19 rating over that spell[^fact-9]. Las Palmas’ in-form outlet is Manu Fuster, with one goal, two assists and an average 7.38 rating across his last five appearances[^fact-10]. The visitors will also be missing Viti Rozada through injury; Rozada has logged 812 minutes in the recent run and his absence reduces available minutes and continuity for Las Palmas[^fact-11]. These individual snapshots matter because both sides have been involved in matches with goals: Almería score 2.20 per match recently and Las Palmas 1.40 per match within their last-10 samples[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons stand out when checked against the model. - Over 2.5 goals: the model projects an over probability of 71% versus a market price at Pinnacle of 1.79, producing a 15.2-percentage-point edge and high confidence[^fact-6]. This aligns with Almería’s 2.20 goals-per-game scoring rate and both sides’ recent propensity to be involved in scoring matches[^fact-4][^fact-5]. - Home match-winner: the model gives the home win a 58% implied probability against a market price of 2.10 at 22Bet, an edge of 10.1 percentage points and high confidence[^fact-7]. That sits naturally with the +169 Elo differential that favours Almería after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. - Both teams to score (BTTS — Yes): the model sees BTTS at 70% while William Hill’s price of 1.67 implies a materially lower probability, yielding a 9.9-percentage-point edge and high confidence[^fact-8]. The mix of Almería conceding 1.80 per match and Las Palmas still finding goals at 1.40 per match makes BTTS credible in the model’s view[^fact-4][^fact-5]. All three value lines were among the markets analysed against the model’s forecasts (three markets compared)[^fact-12]. The market edges combine the match-level lean toward the hosts with a clear expectation of goals and contributions from the in-form attackers noted above[^fact-2][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side: Almería are favoured at 64% with a strong Elo cushion of +169 after home advantage[^fact-2][^fact-3]. The same model flags Over 2.5 goals (71%), Home match-winner (58%) and BTTS Yes (70%) as the clearest edges versus listed market prices, reflecting recent scoring trends and a key Las Palmas injury to Viti Rozada[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 16:30 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 64% / Draw 25% / Away 11% (source: model; confidence high, 39 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ALM vs LPA — Elo differential +169 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ALM recent form** — DWWWL last 10: 6-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **LPA recent form** — LWWWL last 10: 6-0-4 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 71% vs market price 1.79 at Pinnacle, edge 15.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 58% vs market price 2.10 at 22Bet, edge 10.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 70% vs market price 1.67 at WilliamHill, edge 9.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **ALM in-form player** — Adrián Embarba — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.19. [^fact-10]: **LPA in-form player** — Manu Fuster — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.38. [^fact-11]: **LPA key absence** — Viti Rozada out (injury), 812 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .