# Granada vs Burgos > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 16:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/880) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Granada 0–1 Burgos ## Model verdict - **Granada win:** 35% - **Draw:** 44% - **Burgos win:** 21% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Granada edge on paper; model leans toward draw ## The stage This fixture is a La Liga 2 match kicking off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC[^fact-1]. The date and competition set a late-season context without an available venue in the supplied facts; the kickoff timing is the only confirmed scheduling detail[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent form paints two teams travelling in different directions in underlying numbers. Granada’s last 10-match sequence is recorded as LWLLW, a W‑D‑L split of 4-1-5, yielding 1.30 points per game with 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Burgos’ sequence is DDDLW, a W‑D‑L split of 4-5-1, delivering 1.70 points per game with 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per match[^fact-5]. On Elo, the matchup shows Granada with a 53‑point edge after home advantage was applied[^fact-3]. Those lines tell a clear statistical tension: Granada carry the historical-quality advantage in Elo[^fact-3], but Burgos arrive with the better recent points rate and the tighter goals‑against number across the sampled matches[^fact-5]. The model itself prefers a draw as the single most likely outcome at 44%, with home victory probability at 35% and away at 21%—the model’s confidence is described as mid with a 9 percentage‑point gap to the runner‑up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Granada’s most notable in‑form contributor in the supplied facts is Rubén Alcaraz, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.10[^fact-9]. Burgos’ form player listed is Curro Sánchez, who has 2 goals and no assists in his last five outings with an average rating of 7.15[^fact-10]. Those individual outputs are the only player-level attacking data provided for either side[^fact-9][^fact-10]. A clear absence for Granada is goalkeeper Luca Zidane, who is out injured and logged 450 minutes in the recent run before the absence was recorded[^fact-11]. No other absences or starting XI details are supplied, so the goalkeeping change is the single personnel disruption identified in the facts[^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Three specific market edges were identified when comparing the model to public prices. The strongest single edge is on Under 2.5 goals: the model assigns a 77% probability while the market price shown at 1xbet implies a lower market probability at the listed 1.56; the reported edge is 13.0 percentage points and the confidence in that edge is high[^fact-6]. The second edge is on Both Teams to Score — No: the model probability is 67% versus a Betfair Exchange price of 1.79, creating an 11.6 percentage‑point edge with high confidence[^fact-7]. The third market edge is on Draw in the Match Winner market: the model places 41% on a draw while Betfair Exchange offers 3.20, equating to a 9.3 percentage‑point edge and again a high confidence flag[^fact-8]. Markets analysed total three when compared against the model in these facts[^fact-12]. Each edge is expressed relative to the specific market prices referenced above: Under 2.5 at 1xbet, Both Teams to Score — No at Betfair Exchange, and Draw in Match Winner at Betfair Exchange[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is toward a deadlocked affair: draw is the single most likely outcome at 44%, ahead of home (35%) and away (21%)[^fact-2]. That probabilistic view sits alongside an Elo advantage to Granada[^fact-3] and recent results that favour Burgos for consistency and defensive solidity[^fact-5], which helps explain the market discrepancies that produce edges on low scoring and both‑teams‑not‑to‑score scenarios[^fact-6][^fact-7]. The absence of Luca Zidane is the clearest named personnel change that could influence the game state[^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 16:30 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 35% / Draw 44% / Away 21% (source: model; confidence mid, 9 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — GRA vs BUR — Elo differential +53 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **GRA recent form** — LWLLW last 10: 4-1-5 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **BUR recent form** — DDDLW last 10: 4-5-1 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 0.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 77% vs market price 1.56 at 1xbet, edge 13.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 67% vs market price 1.79 at Betfair Exchange, edge 11.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Draw in Match Winner — model 41% vs market price 3.20 at Betfair Exchange, edge 9.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **GRA in-form player** — Rubén Alcaraz — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.10. [^fact-10]: **BUR in-form player** — Curro Sánchez — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.15. [^fact-11]: **GRA key absence** — Luca Zidane out (injury), 450 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .