# Vålerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 > Eliteserien · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 18:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/882) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Vålerenga 3–2 Sarpsborg 08 ## Model verdict - **Vålerenga win:** 72% - **Draw:** 18% - **Sarpsborg 08 win:** 10% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Firm home favourite backed by large Elo edge ## The stage This fixture kicks off on Sat 16 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC in the Eliteserien[^fact-1]. The scheduling and competition status are implicit; the basic stakes are domestic league points in Norway's top flight[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model makes a decisive pre-match call: Home 72% / Draw 18% / Away 10% as its verdict entering the game, with a high-confidence gap of 54 percentage points to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. That confidence is supported by an 83-point Elo edge for the home side after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Recent results present a more nuanced picture. Vålerenga arrive with a LDLLD sequence in their last 10, recorded as 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats, averaging 0.90 points per game and scoring 1.10 goals while conceding 2.00 per match[^fact-4]. Sarpsborg 08’s last 10 read WLLLD, registered as 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, averaging 1.40 points per game with 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The raw forms suggest Sarpsborg 08 are steadier defensively in recent outings while Vålerenga carry more volatility; the Elo and model weighting favour the home side despite those recent defensive numbers[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Vålerenga’s most in-form attacking contributor in the sample is M. Grundetjern, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average match rating of 7.09 in that period[^fact-9]. Sarpsborg 08’s notable recent performer is Sondre Sörli, who has supplied 2 assists and no goals in his last five with an average rating of 6.88[^fact-10]. Availability issues matter: Vålerenga will be without Omar Bully Drammeh through injury[^fact-11]. Sarpsborg 08 are missing Jo Inge Berget due to injury, a player who accumulated 286 minutes in the run that preceded his absence[^fact-12]. Those absences are the clearest personnel disruptions cited in the build-up[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were compared against the model[^fact-13], and the model flags measurable edges on multiple fronts. - No in Both Teams to Score: the model prices this outcome at 65% versus a Betfair market price implying 38.1% (2.63), creating a 26.9 percentage-point edge, flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. - Home in Match Winner: the model gives the home side a 60% probability versus a MansionBet price implying about 52.1% (1.92), a 7.6 percentage-point edge with mid confidence[^fact-7]. - Yes in Both Teams to Score: despite the first pick above, the model also shows a 68% view for both teams to score versus a Betfair Exchange price implying about 62.8% (1.59), an edge of 5.2 percentage points with mid confidence[^fact-8]. The three-market comparison contextualises where the model and markets diverge and how the confidence levels differ across edges[^fact-13]. The largest single statistical disconnect is the strong model conviction on a clean-sheet outcome for one side (No BTTS) at +26.9 percentage points versus the market[^fact-6]. ## Verdict The statistical case is straightforward: a clear home lean driven by a 72% model probability and an 83-point Elo advantage after home adjustment, even as recent match-level metrics show Vålerenga concede more than they score and Sarpsborg 08 have edged points-per-game in the narrow sample[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. Personnel absences on both sides are noted but do not overturn the model’s confidence; the strongest market-model disagreement sits on No Both Teams to Score, where the model sees the largest edge[^fact-11][^fact-12][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 18:00 UTC — Eliteserien [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 72% / Draw 18% / Away 10% (source: model; confidence high, 54 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Vålerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 — Elo differential +83 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Vålerenga recent form** — LDLLD last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Sarpsborg 08 recent form** — WLLLD last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 65% vs market price 2.63 at Betfair, edge 26.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 60% vs market price 1.92 at MansionBet, edge 7.6 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 68% vs market price 1.59 at Betfair Exchange, edge 5.2 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **Vålerenga in-form player** — M. Grundetjern — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.09. [^fact-10]: **Sarpsborg 08 in-form player** — Sondre Sörli — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.88. [^fact-11]: **Vålerenga key absence** — Omar Bully Drammeh out (injury). [^fact-12]: **Sarpsborg 08 key absence** — Jo Inge Berget out (injury), 286 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .