# Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznań > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 18:15 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/883) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Radomiak Radom 1–3 Lech Poznań ## Model verdict - **Radomiak Radom win:** 32% - **Draw:** 23% - **Lech Poznań win:** 44% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Lech slight favourites as Radomiak cope without top scorer ## The stage This Ekstraklasa fixture kicks off Sat 16 May 2026 at 18:15 UTC — a late‑weekend slot that typically raises the stakes for teams hunting points before season’s end[^fact-1]. The model gives the home side a 32% chance, the draw 23% and the away win 44%, a distribution that makes this an away‑leaning game on paper[^fact-2]. The model’s confidence is mid, with a 12 percentage‑point gap to the runner‑up outcome according to its own calibration[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Radomiak’s recent ten‑match sequence reads DWWWL and translates to 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, with 1.50 points per game, 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match — modest attacking output and a defence that has been brittle enough to keep matches close[^fact-4]. Lech Poznań arrive with stronger numbers: a DWWWD run recorded as 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss over ten, worth 2.10 points per game, averaging 2.10 goals for and 1.10 against per match, which signals greater cutting edge and a slightly looser defence[^fact-5]. The Elo comparison, with home advantage applied, gives an edge to Lech of 31 points, a non‑trivial margin that aligns with the model’s away tilt[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Taken together, form and Elo point to Lech as the cleaner, more consistent side over the recent sample; Radomiak’s results suggest resilience at times but less firepower to sustain a shock result[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Radomiak’s most in‑form attacking outlet in the recent run was Abdoul Tapsoba, who registered 3 goals and 0 assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.04 — a clear source of the club’s recent goalscoring punch[^fact-9]. Crucially, Tapsoba is suspended and therefore absent from this match after contributing 367 minutes in the recent run, removing Radomiak’s primary short‑term goals threat[^fact-11][^fact-9]. Lech Poznań’s standout form player in the same window is Luis Palma, who has 3 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.58, representing the side’s most productive in‑form individual attacking contributor[^fact-10]. Lech will also be without Ali Gholizadeh due to injury; Gholizadeh accounted for 624 minutes in the run referenced, meaning Lech will miss a player who accumulated significant game time recently[^fact-12]. Personnel shifts therefore cut both ways: Radomiak lose their top recent scorer, while Lech miss a regularly used attacker — the balance favours Lech given their broader goalscoring numbers over the ten‑match sample[^fact-11][^fact-12][^fact-5]. ## Where the model sees value Three edges stand out versus market pricing across three markets analysed[^fact-13]. First, the model flags Home in Match Winner at 44% while Pinnacle prices the home outcome at 4.19, a 19.9 percentage‑point edge (high confidence) — an anomaly rooted in the model’s internal view of outcome probabilities[^fact-6]. Second, Under 2.5 goals carries a 55% probability from the model against a Betfair O/U price implying 2.55, producing a 15.5 percentage‑point edge (high confidence) and suggesting the model expects a tighter, lower‑scoring affair than the market currently prices[^fact-7]. Third, the model gives 50% to “No” on Both Teams to Score versus a Betfair price implying 2.63, an edge of 12.0 percentage points (high confidence), reinforcing the lean toward one side failing to score or a shutout outcome[^fact-8]. Those three edges — Home match winner, Under 2.5 goals and No on BTTS — are the model’s clearest divergences from the market and are presented with high confidence in the model’s internal ranking[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model leans to an away win overall but highlights multiple market opportunities that favour a low‑scoring game and even a home upset line in its probability space: the away edge in the model’s primary outcome sits at 44% while the home outcome is at 32% and the draw at 23%[^fact-2]. Radomiak lose their in‑form scorer Abdoul Tapsoba, weakening their attacking options, while Lech’s Luis Palma remains a clear threat despite the absence of Ali Gholizadeh[^fact-11][^fact-10][^12]. The numbers point to Lech as the stronger side on balance, with the model simultaneously assigning notable value to lower‑scoring scenarios and a counterintuitive home match‑winner probability on market quotes[^fact-3][^fact-7][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 18:15 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 32% / Draw 23% / Away 44% (source: model; confidence mid, 12 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznań — Elo differential -31 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Radomiak Radom recent form** — DWWWL last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Lech Poznań recent form** — DWWWD last 10: 6-3-1 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 2.10 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 44% vs market price 4.19 at Pinnacle, edge 19.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 55% vs market price 2.55 at Betfair, edge 15.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 50% vs market price 2.63 at Betfair, edge 12.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **Radomiak Radom in-form player** — Abdoul Tapsoba — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.04. [^fact-10]: **Lech Poznań in-form player** — Luis Palma — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.58. [^fact-11]: **Radomiak Radom key absence** — Abdoul Tapsoba out (suspension), 367 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Lech Poznań key absence** — Ali Gholizadeh out (injury), 624 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .