# Sint-Truiden vs Gent > Pro League · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/884) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Sint-Truiden 1–1 Gent ## Model verdict - **Sint-Truiden win:** 69% - **Draw:** 21% - **Gent win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model-heavy home favourite backed by form and Elo advantage ## The stage Saturday’s Pro League fixture kicks off at 18:45 UTC on 16 May 2026 and carries routine but tangible stakes as a league meeting in the closing weeks of the season[^fact-1]. The model places a clear heavy tilt toward the home side with a 66% probability for the home win, 25% for a draw and 9% for the away victory — a spread that comes with a 41 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome, underlining the model’s confidence[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Sint‑Truiden’s recent sequence reads LWWWD across the last ten outings, recorded as a 4‑1‑5 split (wins-draws-losses), yielding 1.30 points per game and an average of 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Gent’s ten-game sample shows DLLDD, a 3‑4‑3 split, also averaging 1.30 points per game but marginally tighter defensive numbers at 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo frame amplifies the home-side advantage: Sint‑Truiden carries a +215 Elo differential against Gent after accounting for home advantage[^fact-3]. Combined, form and Elo point to momentum and underlying rating favouring the hosts rather than a razor-close toss-up[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Sint‑Truiden’s attacking spark has been Ryotaro Ito, who has contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in his last five appearances and holds an average match rating of 7.54 in that run[^fact-9]. For Gent, the most-notable recent performer in the dataset is Tibe De Vlieger, whose last five appearances show 0 goals and 0 assists but an average rating of 7.43[^fact-10]. Injury and suspension will matter: Sint‑Truiden will be without Abdoulaye Sissako, who logged 864 minutes in the recent run before his injury-enforced absence[^fact-11]. Gent will miss Siebe Van der Heyden through suspension; he accounted for 900 minutes in the recent run[^fact-12]. Each absence removes a heavy-minute participant from the recent sample and must be factored into match planning and the model’s assessment[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market edges were analysed by the model against current market prices[^fact-13], and the model flags sizeable discrepancies that favour conservative outcome lines. First, the model’s probability for the home Match Winner is 68% against a market price of 2.05 at Coral, producing an edge of 19.6 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. Second, the model indicates Under 2.5 goals as the likeliest total with a 59% probability versus a market price of 2.25 at bet365, an edge of 14.5 percentage points and likewise a high-confidence view[^fact-7]. Third, the model prefers ‘No’ on Both Teams to Score at 56% against a market price of 2.25 at bet365, giving an 11.8‑point edge and rated high confidence by the model[^fact-8]. These three value calls sit coherently with the underlying signals: modest scoring rates across both sides in recent samples (Sint‑Truiden 1.20 G/90, Gent 1.10 G/90) and similar concession profiles argue for a low-scoring, home-controlled affair[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The home-side Elo advantage (plus 215) and the model’s concentrated probability on the home win further explain why the Match Winner market shows the largest single edge[^fact-3][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is clear: home advantage dominates the probabilistic picture and supports a low-scoring game structure, with the three highest-confidence mismatches versus the market being Home Match Winner, Under 2.5 goals, and No on Both Teams to Score[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. Absent further information beyond the supplied facts, the forecast is a controlled home victory driven by Sint‑Truiden’s Elo edge and recent form, with Ryotaro Ito the attacking figure most likely to influence proceedings and both sides missing heavy-minute contributors in Sissako and Van der Heyden[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-9][^fact-11][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 18:45 UTC — Pro League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 66% / Draw 25% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 41 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SIT vs GNT — Elo differential +215 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SIT recent form** — LWWWD last 10: 4-1-5 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **GNT recent form** — DLLDD last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 68% vs market price 2.05 at Coral, edge 19.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 59% vs market price 2.25 at bet365, edge 14.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 56% vs market price 2.25 at bet365, edge 11.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **SIT in-form player** — Ryotaro Ito — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.54. [^fact-10]: **GNT in-form player** — Tibe De Vlieger — 0 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.43. [^fact-11]: **SIT key absence** — Abdoulaye Sissako out (injury), 864 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **GNT key absence** — Siebe Van der Heyden out (suspension), 900 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .