# Atalanta vs Bologna > Serie A · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 16:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/885) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Atalanta 0–1 Bologna ## Model verdict - **Atalanta win:** 81% - **Draw:** 11% - **Bologna win:** 8% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Atalanta overwhelming favourite as model punts defensive market edges ## The stage Sun 17 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC, Serie A matchweek action with Atalanta hosting Bologna[^fact-1]. This fixture lands late in the season calendar and is classed in the model as a clear home opportunity[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Atalanta arrive with a mixed ten-match record of W‑D‑L shown as WDLDL and 3‑5‑2, delivering 1.40 points per game and averaging 1.50 goals for and 1.20 against per match[^fact-4]. Bologna’s last ten are recorded as WDLLW and 5‑1‑4, producing 1.60 points per game while averaging 1.00 goals for and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model’s Elo comparison assigns Atalanta a sizeable edge — an applied differential of +245 points in favour of the home side[^fact-3]. That Elo gap underpins why the model gives the home result an 81% probability, with draws at 11% and away wins at 8%[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Éderson is the Atalanta in‑form player highlighted by the model: one goal and one assist in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.22[^fact-9]. Riccardo Orsolini represents Bologna’s form threat with two goals in his last five and an average rating of 7.08[^fact-10]. The defensive picture is impacted on both sides: Atalanta will be without Giorgio Scalvini through injury after 698 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11], while Bologna miss Jhon Lucumí to suspension after 825 minutes in the recent run[^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market edges stand out where the model disagrees with public prices across the three markets analysed[^fact-13]. First, the model pins Home in Match Winner at 73% against a market price implying roughly 1.72 on 1xbet, producing a 15.2 percentage‑point edge (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, the model favours No on Both Teams to Score at 58% versus market odds of 2.30 on Betfair, an edge of 14.0 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Third, Under 2.5 goals is viewed at 54% by the model against the market 2.30 on Betfair, giving a 10.9 percentage‑point edge (high confidence)[^fact-8]. Each value line is flagged by the model with high confidence, reflecting the combination of Elo advantage, recent goal rates and personnel availability[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward the home side — Home 81%, Draw 11%, Away 8% — and this underlies the three highest‑confidence edges identified against market prices[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 16:00 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 81% / Draw 11% / Away 8% (source: model; confidence high, 70 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ATA vs BOL — Elo differential +245 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ATA recent form** — WDLDL last 10: 3-5-2 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **BOL recent form** — WDLLW last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 73% vs market price 1.72 at 1xbet, edge 15.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 58% vs market price 2.30 at Betfair, edge 14.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.30 at Betfair, edge 10.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **ATA in-form player** — Éderson — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.22. [^fact-10]: **BOL in-form player** — Riccardo Orsolini — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.08. [^fact-11]: **ATA key absence** — Giorgio Scalvini out (injury), 698 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **BOL key absence** — Jhon Lucumí out (suspension), 825 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .