# Pisa vs Napoli > Serie A · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 10:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/891) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Pisa 0–3 Napoli ## Model verdict - **Pisa win:** 9% - **Draw:** 12% - **Napoli win:** 78% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Napoli overwhelming favourites as Pisa limp into final round ## The stage This Serie A meeting kicks off Sun 17 May 2026 at 10:00 UTC, with Pisa hosting Napoli in the last run of fixtures for the season[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Napoli arrive with strong recent results: six wins, two draws and two defeats in their last ten matches, yielding 2.00 points per game and scoring 1.50 while conceding 0.90 on average in that span[^fact-5]. By contrast Pisa are in a prolonged slump — one win, zero draws and nine losses in their last ten, producing 0.30 points per game with 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The model assigns a commanding away probability to Napoli at 78%, with the home side at 9% and a draw at 12%; the model’s confidence gap to the runner-up is substantial[^fact-2]. That gulf is echoed in Elo: Pisa carry a -253 point differential against Napoli after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Taken together, form and Elo both favour an away victory by a large margin[^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4]. ## Personnel Pisa’s most notable in-form figure in the recent run is Simone Canestrelli, who has one goal and an average rating of 6.54 across his last five appearances[^fact-9]. Napoli’s standout over the same short sample is Scott McTominay, with two goals and a 7.20 average rating in his last five outings[^fact-10]. Availability issues matter here: Pisa will be missing Felipe Loyola through suspension after 255 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11], while Napoli are without Matteo Politano, also suspended, who logged 705 minutes in the same period[^fact-12]. Those absences should influence selection and possibly attacking balance for both sides given the minutes each player contributed[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were analysed against the model[^fact-13]. First, the model favours Under 2.5 goals at 54% against the market price implied by 1xbet’s 2.13 quote, producing an edge of 7.4 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, the model’s match-winner projection strongly backs the away side — 77% for Napoli versus a 1.40 market quote at 1xbet, an edge of 6.0 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-7]. Third, Both Teams to Score is closer: the model puts it at 50% while 10Bet offers 2.15, leaving a smaller edge of 3.8 points and low confidence[^fact-8]. All three edges are calculated directly from model probability versus market price comparisons described above[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is decisively toward an away win: Napoli are the clear favourites by both probability and Elo, the value analysis highlights an away match-winner edge, and limited offensive output from Pisa alongside stronger defensive numbers for Napoli make lower total goals plausible[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-7][^fact-6][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 10:00 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 9% / Draw 12% / Away 78% (source: model; confidence high, 66 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — PIS vs NAP — Elo differential -253 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **PIS recent form** — LLLLL last 10: 1-0-9 (W-D-L), 0.30 PPG, 0.50 goals scored / 2.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **NAP recent form** — LDWLD last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.13 at 1xbet, edge 7.4 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Away in Match Winner — model 77% vs market price 1.40 at 1xbet, edge 6.0 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 50% vs market price 2.15 at 10Bet, edge 3.8 pp (low confidence). [^fact-9]: **PIS in-form player** — Simone Canestrelli — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.54. [^fact-10]: **NAP in-form player** — Scott McTominay — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.20. [^fact-11]: **PIS key absence** — Felipe Loyola out (suspension), 255 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **NAP key absence** — Matteo Politano  out (suspension), 705 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .