# Pisa vs Napoli > Serie A · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 10:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/891) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Pisa win:** 10% - **Draw:** 13% - **Napoli win:** 77% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 2.13 | 1xbet | 54% | +7.4 pp | | h2h | Away | 1.40 | 1xbet | 77% | +6.0 pp | | btts | Yes | 2.15 | 10Bet | 50% | +3.8 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model overwhelmingly backs away side amid huge Elo gap ## The stage This is a Serie A fixture with kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 10:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The match sits squarely inside the league calendar as a top-level domestic tie in Italy's first division[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model places a heavy probability on the away side, rating the home win at 10%, the draw at 13% and the away victory at 77% — a gap to the runner-up that the model describes as high confidence[^fact-2]. That assessment is reflected in an Elo differential of -253 in favour of the visitors after applying home advantage[^fact-3]. Recent form underlines the gulf. The home side arrives on a severe slump: LLLLL in their last 10 (1-0-9), averaging 0.30 points per game with 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visitors are markedly steadier: LDWLD in their last 10 (6-2-2), averaging 2.00 points per game with 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those raw trends — poor attacking output and heavy defensive leakage for the hosts versus consistent point returns and defensive solidity for the visitors — align with the model’s probability tilt[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel On form for the home side is Simone Canestrelli: 1 goal, 0 assists in his last 5 appearances, with an average rating of 6.54[^fact-9]. The visitors’ in-form name is Scott McTominay: 2 goals, 0 assists in his last 5 appearances, and an average rating of 7.20[^fact-10]. Suspensions bite both teams. The home team will be without Felipe Loyola, who contributed 255 minutes in the recent run before his suspension[^fact-11]. The visitors are missing Matteo Politano, who logged 705 minutes in the recent run prior to suspension[^fact-12]. Both absences remove players with meaningful minutes from recent squads; the model’s edge remains with the visitors despite those factors[^fact-2]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model[^fact-13]. Top edges identified by the model are: - Under 2.5 goals: model probability 54% versus a market price of 2.13 (1xbet), giving an edge of 7.4 percentage points; confidence flagged as mid[^fact-6]. - Away in Match Winner: model probability 77% versus a market price of 1.40 (1xbet), giving an edge of 6.0 percentage points; confidence flagged as mid[^fact-7]. - Both Teams to Score — Yes: model probability 50% versus a market price of 2.15 (10Bet), giving an edge of 3.8 percentage points; confidence flagged as low[^fact-8]. These edges reflect distinct views. The Under 2.5 call pairs the home side’s meagre scoring (0.50 goals per match) and the visitors’ defensive steadiness (0.90 conceded per match) into a modest lean towards fewer goals[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. The model’s strongest single signal, numerically and probabilistically, is the away win at 77%[^fact-2][^fact-7]. The both-teams-to-score projection sits at a coin-flip in the model and carries the weakest confidence among the three flagged markets[^fact-8]. ## Verdict The newsroom’s takeaway: the model is emphatic — an away win is the primary lean, backed by a 77% probability and a large Elo differential of -253 in favour of the visitors, while goal markets tilt slightly toward a low-scoring game given the hosts’ attacking struggles and the visitors’ defensive record[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 10:00 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 10% / Draw 13% / Away 77% (source: model; confidence high, 64 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — PIS vs NAP — Elo differential -253 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **PIS recent form** — LLLLL last 10: 1-0-9 (W-D-L), 0.30 PPG, 0.50 goals scored / 2.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **NAP recent form** — LDWLD last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.13 at 1xbet, edge 7.4 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Away in Match Winner — model 77% vs market price 1.40 at 1xbet, edge 6.0 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 50% vs market price 2.15 at 10Bet, edge 3.8 pp (low confidence). [^fact-9]: **PIS in-form player** — Simone Canestrelli — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.54. [^fact-10]: **NAP in-form player** — Scott McTominay — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.20. [^fact-11]: **PIS key absence** — Felipe Loyola out (suspension), 255 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **NAP key absence** — Matteo Politano  out (suspension), 705 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .