# Udinese vs Cremonese > Serie A · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/894) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Udinese 0–1 Cremonese ## Model verdict - **Udinese win:** 51% - **Draw:** 37% - **Cremonese win:** 12% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear favorites at home but draw carries the clearest edge ## The stage This Serie A fixture kicks off on Sun 17 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC. [^fact-1] ## Form & momentum UDI approaches this match with noticeably stronger recent numbers: a WWDLW sequence in the last 10 and a 5-3-2 W-D-L split recorded by the model for that run. [^fact-4] That recent form translates into 1.80 points per game, with UDI averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per match across the same sample. [^fact-4] USC, by contrast, has managed a WLLDL sequence and a 2-1-7 W-D-L split over their last 10, producing just 0.70 points per game and averages of 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded. [^fact-5] The Elo differential — already adjusted for home advantage — gives UDI a substantial edge of +290 points over USC, underlining the gap between the sides on an objective strength scale. [^fact-3] Collectively the form lines and Elo point in one direction: the home side arrives hotter and cleaner defensively while the visitors have struggled to convert chances and have been more porous. [^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3] ## Personnel UDI’s in-form midfielder Arthur Atta has three goals and zero assists in his last five appearances, carrying an average match rating of 7.23 in that spell. [^fact-9] USC’s clearest attacking tone comes from Federico Bonazzoli, who has two goals and zero assists in his last five matches with an average rating of 7.19 in that period. [^fact-10] Availability questions alter the margin: UDI will be without Kingsley Ehizibue due to suspension after 843 minutes in the recent run, removing a regular defensive presence. [^fact-11] USC are missing Romano Floriani Mussolini through injury, a player who logged 316 minutes in the recent run. [^fact-12] Those absences are asymmetric: UDI lose a consistent fullback, while USC lose a less-played squad member, but the raw minutes suggest the home side’s personnel disruption is heavier by minutes lost. [^fact-11][^fact-12] ## Where the model sees value Three markets were compared against the model’s probabilities. [^fact-13] Top value identified: “No in Both Teams to Score” at market price 2.02 on Unibet, where the model assigns 65% probability, producing a 15.5 percentage-point edge. This is the highest-confidence value pick flagged by the model. [^fact-6] Second value: a Draw in Match Winner trades at 3.50 on CloudBet while the model prices the draw at 41%, yielding a 12.3 percentage-point edge on the market. [^fact-7] Third value: Home (Match Winner) at 2.51 on 1xbet is priced against a model probability of 51%, giving a 10.8 percentage-point edge. This is the model’s top single-outcome probability and is flagged with high confidence. [^fact-8][^fact-2] Put together, the model highlights both a reasonably strong home lean and a separate, higher-confidence signal that the match may not see goals at both ends. [^fact-8][^fact-6] ## Verdict The model leans to the home side with a 51% probability, but it also assigns a non-trivial 37% chance of a draw and a much smaller 12% chance to the away team — a distribution that produces overlapping value opportunities: home win is the modal outcome yet the draw and a low-scoring match both carry measurable model-market edges. [^fact-2][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-6] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 18:45 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 51% / Draw 37% / Away 12% (source: model; confidence mid, 14 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — UDI vs USC — Elo differential +290 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **UDI recent form** — WWDLW last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 0.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **USC recent form** — WLLDL last 10: 2-1-7 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 65% vs market price 2.02 at Unibet, edge 15.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Draw in Match Winner — model 41% vs market price 3.50 at CloudBet, edge 12.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Home in Match Winner — model 51% vs market price 2.51 at 1xbet, edge 10.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **UDI in-form player** — Arthur Atta — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.23. [^fact-10]: **USC in-form player** — Federico Bonazzoli — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.19. [^fact-11]: **UDI key absence** — Kingsley Ehizibue out (suspension), 843 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **USC key absence** — Romano Floriani Mussolini out (injury), 316 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .