# Levante vs Mallorca > La Liga · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/899) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Levante 2–0 Mallorca ## Model verdict - **Levante win:** 40% - **Draw:** 32% - **Mallorca win:** 28% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and low-scoring lean define late-season contest ## The stage Kickoff is Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 UTC in La Liga[^fact-1]. This fixture sits at the tail end of the domestic calendar and presents a single-match snapshot rather than a long tournament arc; the model frames it with a clear ordering of outcomes: Home 40% / Draw 32% / Away 28%[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Levante enter the tie on a run summarised as WWLDW across their last 10, producing 1.80 points per game with 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Mallorca’s last 10 read LDWLD, yielding 1.50 points per game with 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model’s underlying strength measure gives Levante an Elo edge of +114 points with home advantage applied, a substantive single-match gap in this framework[^fact-3]. Taken together, form lines show Levante slightly more productive in points and marginally leakier in defence, while Mallorca trade a touch less cutting output for a slightly better defensive return; the Elo differential still tilts the balance toward the home side[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Levante’s recent attacking spark has been Kervin Arriaga, who has contributed 1 goal and 2 assists across his last four appearances and carries an average rating of 7.24 in that sample[^fact-9]. Mallorca’s most notable short-term form note is Samú Costa, with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last four and an average rating of 7.35[^fact-10]. On the absences front, Levante will be missing Iván Romero through injury, a player who logged 416 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. Mallorca are without Manu Morlanes due to injury, who had accumulated 619 minutes in the same recent window[^fact-12]. Those minutes figures underline the impact of both absences on recent match rhythms and squad options[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model[^fact-13], and the clearest single edge appears in the Under 2.5 goals market: the model assigns 54% to Under 2.5 versus a market price of 2.05 at 1xbet, an edge of 5.6 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-6]. The model also registers a home-match-winner lean: Home is 49% against a market price of 2.23 at 1xbet, an edge of 4.1 pp (low confidence)[^fact-7]. Finally, the model shows a 50% likelihood to the "No" on Both Teams To Score versus a market price of 2.18 at Unibet, an edge of 3.9 pp (low confidence)[^fact-8]. These are the three value calls isolated by the model from the markets examined[^fact-13][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s headline lean is modestly home-favouring — Home 40% vs Draw 32% and Away 28% — supported by an Elo advantage of +114 points with home applied[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Converging signals point to a low-scoring contest: the model prefers Under 2.5 (54%) and signals a 50% chance of no both-teams-to-score, while the absence of minutes from Iván Romero and Manu Morlanes further shifts emphasis away from usual attacking rhythms[^fact-6][^fact-8][^fact-11][^fact-12]. The market edges are small to mid-sized and carry mixed confidence, with the clearest model/market divergence on goals[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — La Liga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 40% / Draw 32% / Away 28% (source: model; confidence mid, 8 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LVT vs MLL — Elo differential +114 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LVT recent form** — WWLDW last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **MLL recent form** — LDWLD last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.05 at 1xbet, edge 5.6 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 49% vs market price 2.23 at 1xbet, edge 4.1 pp (low confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 50% vs market price 2.18 at Unibet, edge 3.9 pp (low confidence). [^fact-9]: **LVT in-form player** — Kervin Arriaga — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.24. [^fact-10]: **MLL in-form player** — Samú Costa — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.35. [^fact-11]: **LVT key absence** — Iván Romero out (injury), 416 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **MLL key absence** — Manu Morlanes out (injury), 619 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .