# Osasuna vs Espanyol > La Liga · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/900) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Osasuna 1–2 Espanyol ## Model verdict - **Osasuna win:** 60% - **Draw:** 25% - **Espanyol win:** 15% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans home as draw market pops for value ## The stage This Sunday’s La Liga fixture kicks off at 17:00 UTC on 17 May 2026. [^fact-1] The match arrives at the business end of the calendar and carries routine league significance rather than a cup context, with kickoff time and competition provided in the schedule. [^fact-1] ## Form & momentum Osasuna sit ahead on the model’s board: the predicted outcome is Home 60% / Draw 25% / Away 15%, a strong lean with a 35 percentage-point gap to the runner-up probability and high model confidence. [^fact-2] That view is supported by an Elo differential of +172 points in Osasuna’s favour after home advantage is applied. [^fact-3] Recent form for Osasuna reads LLLWL over the last 10 matches, a W-D-L split of 2-3-5, with 0.90 points per game and an attacking/defensive per-match output of 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded. [^fact-4] Espanyol’s recent ten-match sequence is WLLDL, a 1-3-6 W-D-L split, with 0.60 points per game and 0.70 goals scored versus 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5] The raw metrics show Osasuna creating and conceding more than Espanyol, while the Elo gap and model probabilities favour the home side. [^fact-3] [^fact-2] ## Personnel Osasuna’s most notable in-form profile is Raúl García: two goals and one assist in his last five appearances, with an average match rating of 7.04. [^fact-8] That recent attacking contribution is a clear individual bright spot in a side averaging 1.30 goals per game over the sample. [^fact-4] Espanyol’s in-form highlight is Carlos Romero, who has one assist and no goals in his last five matches and shares the same average rating of 7.04. [^fact-9] The losing impact for Espanyol is compounded by the absence of Javi Puado through injury, a named unavailability that removes a known attacking option. [^fact-10] ## Where the model sees value The model flags two clear market edges after comparing three markets against its probabilities. [^fact-11] - Value pick #1: The model assesses the probability of a draw at 44%, while the market price at CloudBet implies a lower chance with odds of 3.41, producing an edge of 14.2 percentage points in favour of the draw (high confidence). [^fact-6] - Value pick #2: The model gives over 2.5 goals a 52% chance, while Unibet’s 2.43 market price implies a lower probability and the model calculates a 10.7 percentage-point edge for over 2.5 goals (high confidence). [^fact-7] The juxtaposition is instructive: the model’s primary outcome likelihood still favours the home win, but the single largest market inefficiency it detects is in the draw price, not the straight upset. [^fact-2] [^fact-6] The goals market edge suggests the model expects this game to be more open than Espanyol’s recent scoring run implies, with over 2.5 goals seen as slightly more likely than the market prices. [^fact-7] Both picks are reported with high confidence by the model. [^fact-6] [^fact-7] ## Verdict The quantitative verdict is a lean toward the home side: the model gives Osasuna the highest single-outcome probability at 60%, supported by a +172 Elo differential with home advantage applied. [^fact-2] [^fact-3] Nevertheless, the clearest market inefficiency the model identifies is a strong value signal on the draw at 44% versus the market’s 3.41, and a secondary signal on over 2.5 goals at 52% versus a 2.43 market price. [^fact-6] [^fact-7] Raúl García’s recent direct contributions and Espanyol’s notable absence of Javi Puado frame the individual match narratives to watch. [^fact-8] [^fact-10] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — La Liga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 60% / Draw 25% / Away 15% (source: model; confidence high, 35 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — OSA vs ESY — Elo differential +172 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **OSA recent form** — LLLWL last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ESY recent form** — WLLDL last 10: 1-3-6 (W-D-L), 0.60 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 44% vs market price 3.41 at CloudBet, edge 14.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 52% vs market price 2.43 at Unibet, edge 10.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **OSA in-form player** — Raúl García — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.04. [^fact-9]: **ESY in-form player** — Carlos Romero — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.04. [^fact-10]: **ESY key absence** — Javi Puado out (injury). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .