# Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor > Super Lig · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/905) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Antalyaspor 1–0 Kocaelispor ## Model verdict - **Antalyaspor win:** 24% - **Draw:** 21% - **Kocaelispor win:** 56% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model makes a clear call: low-scoring road favourite ## The stage This fixture kicks off on Sun 17 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC in the Super Lig[^fact-1]. The match pits a home side with a modest Elo edge against an away team that the model rates considerably higher — the applied Elo differential is +38 in favour of the visitors[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Recent results leave neither side in rich form. The home team have produced LDLLL across their last 10 fixtures — a 1-3-6 W-D-L split, yielding 0.60 points per game with 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visitors arrive with a slightly better recent ledger of LDLDD over their last 10 — a 1-4-5 W-D-L split, averaging 0.70 points per game with 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Despite those similar runes, the model’s overall verdict leans strongly away: Home 24% / Draw 21% / Away 56% — a 32 percentage-point gap to the nearest runner-up, indicating clear confidence in the road side[^fact-2]. That confidence aligns with the +38 Elo edge applied for home advantage[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Two players stand out for recent impact. Soner Dikmen has two goals and zero assists in his last four appearances, carrying an average match rating of 7.02[^fact-8]. On the opposite flank, Serdar Dursun arrives with one goal and one assist across his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.55[^fact-9]. Availability questions will matter. The home side will be without Veysel Sarı due to injury; Sarı accounts for 706 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. The visitors are missing Hrvoje Smolcic through injury as well; Smolcic logged 810 minutes in that same recent window[^fact-11]. Those absences remove two of the more heavily used players from each side’s recent patterns and could nudge how both teams balance risk and defensive cover. ## Where the model sees value The model surfaces two clear market edges against public prices. First, an Under 2.5 goals outcome carries a 79% model probability while the market price quoted is 1.92 at 1xbet — this represents an edge of 26.9 percentage points and is flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. Second, the model assigns a 70% probability to “No” on Both Teams to Score, while the market price quoted is 1.87 at Betfair — an edge of 16.9 percentage points, again indicated with high confidence[^fact-7]. These recommendations are drawn from a comparison against three markets analysed in total[^fact-12]. Both flagged edges point to a low-scoring profile: the Under 2.5 lean and the No BTTS lean are consistent with the visitors’ low goals-for numbers (0.50 per match) and both teams’ elevated goals-against figures relative to goals scored in recent form[^fact-5][^fact-4]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is decisively toward the away side (56% chance) over a home win (24%) or draw (21%), backed by a +38 Elo differential and a clear probability gap to the runner-up[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Concurrently, the statistical picture supports a low-scoring affair: Under 2.5 and No BTTS are the model’s primary value reads versus the market prices cited[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Super Lig [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 24% / Draw 21% / Away 56% (source: model; confidence high, 32 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ANT vs Kocaelispor — Elo differential +38 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ANT recent form** — LDLLL last 10: 1-3-6 (W-D-L), 0.60 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Kocaelispor recent form** — LDLDD last 10: 1-4-5 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 0.50 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 79% vs market price 1.92 at 1xbet, edge 26.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 70% vs market price 1.87 at Betfair, edge 16.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **ANT in-form player** — Soner Dikmen — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.02. [^fact-9]: **Kocaelispor in-form player** — Serdar Dursun — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.55. [^fact-10]: **ANT key absence** — Veysel Sarı out (injury), 706 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Kocaelispor key absence** — Hrvoje Smolcic out (injury), 810 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .