# Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor > Super Lig · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/907) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Fatih Karagümrük win:** 9% - **Draw:** 52% - **Alanyaspor win:** 39% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Draw | 3.50 | Betfair Exchange | 52% | +23.0 pp | | totals | Under | 2.00 | Betfair Exchange | 54% | +4.4 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw market shines amid tight margins and key injuries ## The stage Kickoff arrives on Sat 16 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC in a Super Lig fixture that primarily looks like a points-scrap rather than a runaway tie[^fact-1]. The time and competition frame the meeting as a late-season match with tangible implications for both sides' league trajectories, given how the model prices outcomes here[^fact-1][^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form suggests a low-volatility game. Fatih Karagümrük arrive with a WWDLL sequence in their last 10, a record the model translates into 1.40 points per game and an average of 0.90 goals scored against 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Alanyaspor's last-10 line is WDLLD, worth 1.10 points per game with 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those raw outputs point to two teams operating at similar levels, with slightly different offensive profiles: Alanyaspor creates more scoring events on paper while Karagümrük concedes marginally less[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Elo adds a modest home tilt in favour of Fatih Karagümrük: an applied Elo differential of +39 points after home advantage is counted[^fact-3]. That edge is real but not overwhelming, and the model’s probabilistic translation overweighted the draw as the likeliest outcome in this fixture[^fact-2]. The model’s verdict sits at Home 9% / Draw 52% / Away 39%, with a confidence label of "mid" and a 13 percentage-point gap to the runner-up, signalling a clear preference for a stalemate rather than a decisive winner[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Spotlight on form and absence narrows the tactical story. Igor Lichnovsky is Karagümrük’s in-form figure in recent appearances: zero goals but one assist across his last five outings, carrying an average match rating of 6.85 in that window[^fact-8]. For Alanyaspor, Florent Hadergjonaj has contributed one goal and one assist in his last four matches with an average rating of 7.24, the clearer attacking influence among the named individuals available in the facts[^fact-9]. Availability alters the setup. Goalkeeper Ivo Grbic is out injured after contributing 810 minutes in the recent run for Karagümrük, a significant absence given the minutes tally noted in the facts[^fact-10]. Alanyaspor are without Steve Mounié, who has featured for 395 minutes in the recent stretch before his injury-enforced absence[^fact-11]. Those two absences change who touches the ball in key moments and the kind of defensive security each side can expect, but the figures supplied do not allow a deeper personnel projection beyond the names and minutes given[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model flags two market divergences the desk would emphasise. First, the Match Winner draw is the clear value call when comparing model probabilities to market pricing: the model assigns a 52% chance of a draw while the Betfair Exchange lists the draw at 3.50 (an implied probability materially below the model), yielding an edge of 23.0 percentage points — a high-confidence discrepancy in the model’s view[^fact-6]. That aligns with the model’s overall distribution, which centers on a stalemate at 52%[^fact-2][^fact-6]. Second, the model nudges towards Under 2.5 goals with a 54% probability versus a market price of 2.00 at Betfair Exchange, a smaller edge of 4.4 percentage points and explicitly labelled as low confidence in the underlying comparison[^fact-7]. The statistical backdrop supports a restrained scoring expectation: Karagümrük’s 0.90 goals scored per match and Alanyaspor’s 1.50 combined with their recent defensive numbers suggest a contest that could trend under 2.5, but the model itself assigns only a modest edge here and downgrades confidence accordingly[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7]. Three markets were analysed against the model in the package provided, contextualising both edges above[^fact-12]. The strongest dislocation is the draw market, followed by a tentative lean on low total goals. ## Verdict The model leans heavily toward a stalemate: Draw 52% (Home 9% / Away 39%), a mid-confidence projection with a 13-point gap to the runner-up, reinforced by an Elo home edge of +39 but tempered by comparable recent form and two notable absences on either side[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-10][^fact-11]. The clearest market friction resides in the draw price versus model probability, while the under-2.5 case carries only a slim and lower-confidence advantage[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC — Super Lig [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 9% / Draw 52% / Away 39% (source: model; confidence mid, 13 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Fatih Karagümrük vs ANY — Elo differential +39 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Fatih Karagümrük recent form** — WWDLL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ANY recent form** — WDLLD last 10: 2-5-3 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 52% vs market price 3.50 at Betfair Exchange, edge 23.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.00 at Betfair Exchange, edge 4.4 pp (low confidence). [^fact-8]: **Fatih Karagümrük in-form player** — Igor Lichnovsky — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.85. [^fact-9]: **ANY in-form player** — Florent Hadergjonaj — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.24. [^fact-10]: **Fatih Karagümrük key absence** — Ivo Grbic out (injury), 810 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **ANY key absence** — Steve Mounié out (injury), 395 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .