# Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor > Super Lig · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/907) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Fatih Karagümrük 2–1 Alanyaspor ## Model verdict - **Fatih Karagümrük win:** 16% - **Draw:** 38% - **Alanyaspor win:** 46% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw market carries the clearest statistical edge ahead of kickoff ## The stage This Super Lig fixture kicks off on Sat 16 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The match pits the home side against Alanyaspor in what the model rates as a contest where a draw is the likeliest outcome[^fact-2]. No venue detail is listed in the supplied facts; attention should be on time and competition[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent form numbers paint a picture of two middling teams moving in different directions. Fatih Karagümrük arrive with a last-10 ledger of WWDLL — represented as 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses — producing 1.40 points per game and averaging 0.90 goals scored while conceding 1.10 per match[^fact-4]. Alanyaspor’s last 10 read WDLLD — 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses — yielding 1.10 points per game and an attacking/defensive profile of 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-5]. On raw strength metrics the home side carries an Elo edge: the model applies home advantage and gives Fatih Karagümrük a +39 point differential over Alanyaspor[^fact-3]. That Elo premium contrasts with the form snapshots: Karagümrük’s slightly better points-per-game but lower goals-for rate versus Alanyaspor’s higher scoring average[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s overall outcome probabilities remain tilted toward parity rather than a decisive home win, with a draw at 52% and the away side at 39% while the home win probability sits at 9%[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Two players stand out for recent performances. Igor Lichnovsky has registered 0 goals and 1 assist across his last five appearances with an average rating of 6.86[^fact-8]. Florent Hadergjonaj has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last four appearances with an average rating of 7.24[^fact-9]. Availability issues shape selection risk. Fatih Karagümrük will be without Ivo Grbic due to injury; Grbic accounted for 810 minutes in the recent run provided in the facts[^fact-10]. Alanyaspor face the absence of Steve Mounié with 395 minutes reported in his recent run[^fact-11]. Those absences remove experienced minutes from both squads and should be weighed when judging finishing and defensive stability[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model has been compared against three market lines according to the supplied information[^fact-12]. Its clearest edge is on the draw in Match Winner: the model assigns a 52% probability while the Betfair Exchange price implies odds of 3.50, producing an edge of 23.0 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. This is the dominant market divergence between model and market prices in the available facts[^fact-6][^fact-12]. A secondary signal is the model’s lean toward Under 2.5 goals: the model gives Under 2.5 a 54% probability while the Betfair market price sits at 2.00, yielding a smaller edge of 4.4 percentage points and registered with low confidence[^fact-7][^fact-12]. The statistical case for under middles is consistent with the two sides’ defensive profiles in the recent-run numbers — Karagümrük conceding 1.10 and Alanyaspor 1.20 per match — but the model flags lower confidence on that line specifically[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7]. Those two market comparisons capture the model’s priority: it highlights a large market inefficiency on the draw and a tenuous lean on goal totals, while a home win is both unlikely in the model and poorly priced relative to the draw and under lines[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model’s verdict is simple: this is a low-expectation home result (9% home win probability) with parity the default outcome — a draw at 52% — and the away side still carrying a meaningful chance at 39%[^fact-2]. The strongest market divergence is the draw versus the Betfair price, followed by a modest Under 2.5 angle that the model treats with limited confidence[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC — Super Lig [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 9% / Draw 52% / Away 39% (source: model; confidence mid, 13 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Fatih Karagümrük vs ANY — Elo differential +39 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Fatih Karagümrük recent form** — WWDLL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ANY recent form** — WDLLD last 10: 2-5-3 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 52% vs market price 3.50 at Betfair Exchange, edge 23.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.00 at Betfair Exchange, edge 4.4 pp (low confidence). [^fact-8]: **Fatih Karagümrük in-form player** — Igor Lichnovsky — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.86. [^fact-9]: **ANY in-form player** — Florent Hadergjonaj — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.24. [^fact-10]: **Fatih Karagümrük key absence** — Ivo Grbic out (injury), 810 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **ANY key absence** — Steve Mounié out (injury), 395 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .