# Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor > Super Lig · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/908) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Fenerbahçe 3–3 Eyüpspor ## Model verdict - **Fenerbahçe win:** 82% - **Draw:** 12% - **Eyüpspor win:** 6% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy favorites on paper as goals market splits the model ## The stage Kickoff is set for Sun 17 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC in a Super Lig fixture that effectively reads as a routine home assignment on paper[^fact-1]. The market and the model both treat home advantage as decisive, a theme that underpins the numerical case laid out below[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Fenerbahçe arrive with the stronger recent sequence: in their last 10 matches they are W W L D W, recorded as a 6-2-2 line, and have averaged 2.00 points per game while scoring 2.20 and conceding 1.30 per match[^fact-4]. Eyüpspor’s last-10 ledger reads W D W W L, a 3-2-5 record, with 1.10 points per game, 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo gap, already pronounced even before home advantage, sits at +450 points in Fenerbahçe’s favour after the home adjustment[^fact-3]. That scale of differential generally implies a large expected outcome swing, and the model quantifies that with a heavy probability on the home result: Home 82%, Draw 12%, Away 6% — the model’s verdict comes with a 70 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome, signalling strong internal confidence[^fact-2]. Taken together, the statistical snapshot is blunt: Fenerbahçe possess clear superiority across results-based form, goal metrics and Elo standing, while Eyüpspor’s metrics show parity between scoring and conceding but materially lower points production[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Talisca is the standout attacking presence for Fenerbahçe, arriving on the day with 6 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances and an average match rating of 8.06 for that stretch[^fact-8]. For Eyüpspor, Umut Bozok has been the primary creative/finishing influence with 2 goals and 5 assists across his last 4 appearances and an average rating of 8.15 in that sample[^fact-9]. On the availability front, Fenerbahçe will be without Jayden Oosterwolde through injury; he logged 810 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence[^fact-10]. Eyüpspor are missing Ángel Torres due to suspension; Torres had 367 minutes in the recent sequence before the suspension took effect[^fact-11]. The absences are asymmetric in scale: Oosterwolde’s 810 minutes imply a longer-term role prior to the injury, while Torres’ 367 minutes indicate a smaller but still relevant contribution to his side’s recent rhythm[^fact-10][^fact-11]. The in-form names — Talisca and Umut Bozok — are the primary live threats to watch in any goals-related projection[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model highlights two conflicting edges on the goals market, reflecting the tension between a strong home favourite and the recent scoring profiles and personnel notes already cited[^fact-2][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-8][^fact-9]. First, the model sees value on Under 2.5 goals: model probability 54% versus a market-implied price at 10Bet of 2.95, producing an edge of 20.5 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-6]. That suggests the model expects a lower-scoring outcome than the market pricing currently does[^fact-6]. Conversely, the model also registers an edge for Over 2.5 goals, putting the model probability at 74% against Pinnacle’s market price of 1.44, an edge of 4.6 percentage points with mid confidence[^fact-7]. These two edges are not mutually exclusive in the model’s outputs here: they reflect different instruments and bookmakers, and underline the fragmentation across three markets that were analysed against the model[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12]. This split in value signals that market prices are inconsistent; one bookmaker is offering a long price for under 2.5 while another prices over 2.5 as the likelier outcome by model estimates — a tension driven by how the model resolves home dominance, attacking form and the specific player-level contributions already cited[^fact-2][^fact-8][^fact-9]. The model’s confidence levels differ between these two plays, which is material: the under 2.5 edge is flagged as high confidence, while the over 2.5 edge carries mid confidence[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model leans strongly to a home victory (Home 82%) with a wide Elo and form advantage, but the goals market is fractured: the highest-confidence model signal favours under 2.5 goals at the long price shown, while an alternative market and the model’s own higher-probability view favour over 2.5 with lower confidence — both edges arise from the three markets analysed[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Super Lig [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 82% / Draw 12% / Away 6% (source: model; confidence high, 70 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — FEN vs Eyüpspor — Elo differential +450 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FEN recent form** — WWLDW last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Eyüpspor recent form** — WDWWL last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.95 at 10Bet, edge 20.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 74% vs market price 1.44 at Pinnacle, edge 4.6 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **FEN in-form player** — Talisca — 6 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 8.06. [^fact-9]: **Eyüpspor in-form player** — Umut Bozok — 2 goals, 5 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 8.15. [^fact-10]: **FEN key absence** — Jayden Oosterwolde out (injury), 810 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Eyüpspor key absence** — Ángel Torres out (suspension), 367 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .