# Gaziantep F.K. vs İstanbul Başakşehir > Super Lig · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/909) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Gaziantep F.K. 1–2 İstanbul Başakşehir ## Model verdict - **Gaziantep F.K. win:** 20% - **Draw:** 21% - **İstanbul Başakşehir win:** 59% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Away side clear model favourite as goals look scarce ## The stage This Super Lig fixture kicks off Sat 16 May 2026, 17:00 UTC[^fact-1]. Gaziantep F.K. faces İstanbul Başakşehir in a contest the model ranks with a pronounced away lean[^fact-2]. The kickoff time and competition set the clock for a match where league positioning and season context will matter for both sides[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Form lines tell a divergent story. Gaziantep F.K. arrive with a LLLWL sequence and have collected 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 10 matches, averaging 0.90 points per game and scoring 1.20 while conceding 1.60 per match[^fact-4]. İstanbul Başakşehir are on a WLWDW run and sit with 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 10, averaging 1.80 points per game and scoring 1.60 while conceding 0.80 per match[^fact-5]. The model’s probability split makes the gap explicit: Home 20% / Draw 21% / Away 59% — a 38 percentage-point gap to the nearest rival and a high-confidence verdict in favour of the visitors[^fact-2]. The Elo differential with home advantage applied gives İstanbul Başakşehir a clear edge of 95 points versus Gaziantep F.K., reinforcing the model’s distance between the sides[^fact-3]. Taken together, recent results, goal rates and the Elo gap point to Başakşehir carrying the momentum into this fixture[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Gaziantep’s most notable in-form attacking outlet in the sample is Mohamed Bayo, who has 3 goals and 0 assists in his last 5 appearances with an average rating of 6.99[^fact-9]. İstanbul Başakşehir’s frontman form is sharper: Eldor Shomurodov has 5 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 7.67[^fact-10]. Absences matter: Gaziantep will be missing Arda Kızıldağ, who accumulated 452 minutes in the recent run before being ruled out[^fact-11]. Başakşehir are without Léo Duarte, who contributed 775 minutes in his recent run and will be absent[^fact-12]. Those losses remove experienced minutes from both squads and should influence defensive balance; the facts do not specify replacements, so their tactical consequences must be inferred from minutes lost rather than names[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model flags three edges versus market prices across three markets analysed[^fact-13]. - No in Both Teams to Score: the model assigns this outcome a 47% probability versus a market price implying lower chance at Betfair 3.10, producing an edge of 15.2 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-6]. - Under 2.5 goals: the model gives this outcome a 43% probability against a Pinnacle market price of 3.14, an edge of 10.9 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-7]. - Away in Match Winner: the model places 58% on an away victory versus an Interwetten price of 1.90, an edge of 5.4 percentage points with mid confidence[^fact-8]. Those three market comparisons constitute the set of markets analysed by the model for this fixture[^fact-13]. The common thread across the primary edges is a lean toward fewer goals and an away winner: the No BTTS and Under 2.5 edges align with the visitor’s superior defensive profile in recent matches and the home side’s lower scoring rate[^fact-5][^fact-4][^fact-6][^fact-7]. The Away match-winner edge mirrors the model’s 59% probability for an away win and the sizable Elo advantage[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is decisive: İstanbul Başakşehir are the clear favourites with a 59% match-win probability, supported by a 95-point Elo edge and superior recent form, while the market shows meaningful inefficiency on lower-scoring outcomes and an away winner[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-8][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Super Lig [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 20% / Draw 21% / Away 59% (source: model; confidence high, 38 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Gaziantep F.K. vs IBA — Elo differential -95 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Gaziantep F.K. recent form** — LLLWL last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **IBA recent form** — WLWDW last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 47% vs market price 3.10 at Betfair, edge 15.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 43% vs market price 3.14 at Pinnacle, edge 10.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Away in Match Winner — model 58% vs market price 1.90 at Interwetten, edge 5.4 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **Gaziantep F.K. in-form player** — Mohamed Bayo — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.99. [^fact-10]: **IBA in-form player** — Eldor Shomurodov — 5 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.67. [^fact-11]: **Gaziantep F.K. key absence** — Arda Kızıldağ out (injury), 452 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **IBA key absence** — Léo Duarte out (injury), 775 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .