# Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray > Super Lig · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/910) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Kasımpaşa 1–0 Galatasaray ## Model verdict - **Kasımpaşa win:** 8% - **Draw:** 10% - **Galatasaray win:** 82% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans heavily to the visitors despite home-stage noise ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 UTC in the Super Lig; Kasımpaşa host Galatasaray. [^fact-1] [^fact-3] ## Form & momentum Form charts draw a clear contrast. Kasımpaşa arrive with a LDLWD sequence in their last 10 and a points-per-game of 1.20, scoring 1.20 and conceding 1.70 per match in that span. [^fact-4] Galatasaray sit on a WLWWD run across their last 10 with a 2.20 PPG return, averaging 2.20 goals for and 1.20 against per match. [^fact-5] That gap is reflected in the rating systems: the Elo differential, with home advantage applied, reads -299 in favour of Galatasaray. [^fact-3] The model’s probabilistic take follows the same script — it assigns an 82% chance to an away win, 11% to a draw and 8% to a home victory, with a high confidence gap to the runner-up. [^fact-2] ## Personnel Kasımpaşa’s form engine over the last five appearances has been Adrian Benedyczak — four goals, zero assists and an average rating of 7.04 in that window. [^fact-9] A disruptive profile in the final third is valuable for the hosts given their modest scoring rate across the last 10. [^fact-4] Galatasaray are coping without Victor Osimhen, who is listed out injured after contributing three goals and one assist across his last three appearances and accumulating 521 minutes in his recent run. [^fact-10] [^fact-12] On the other side of the pitch, Kasımpaşa are missing Andreas Gianniotis through suspension after 900 minutes in the recent run. [^fact-11] Personnel availability moves the needle here: the hosts lose their seasoned goalkeeper for 900 minutes of recent influence, while the visitors are without their most productive attacker from the immediate run. [^fact-11] [^fact-12] Those absences shape expected goal sources and defensive responsibilities in ways the raw numbers already imply. [^fact-4] [^fact-5] ## Where the model sees value The model identifies concrete market edges across three markets that were analysed. [^fact-13] - Match Winner — Away: model 70% vs market price 2.31 at 1xbet (edge 27.1 percentage points, high confidence). [^fact-6] - Match Winner — Home: model 44% vs market price 4.60 at 888Sport (edge 22.1 percentage points, high confidence). [^fact-7] - Over 2.5 goals: model 64% vs market price 1.83 at 1xbet (edge 9.0 percentage points, high confidence). [^fact-8] Those edges paint a clear picture: the model strongly favours an away outcome while still spotting a sizeable market discrepancy on a home win line, and it also leans toward an open game over 2.5 goals. [^fact-6] [^fact-7] [^fact-8] The over/under view coheres with both teams’ recent tallies — Kasımpaşa averaging 1.20 goals and 1.70 conceded, Galatasaray averaging 2.20 for and 1.20 against — which together suggest a reasonable probability mass above 2.5 goals. [^fact-4] [^fact-5] ## Verdict The model’s lean is decisive: an away win is the dominant expectation, supported by a -299 Elo edge and an 82% model probability, while the markets still leave detectable edges on both the away price and the over 2.5 line. [^fact-3] [^fact-2] [^fact-6] [^fact-8] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Super Lig [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 8% / Draw 11% / Away 82% (source: model; confidence high, 71 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Kasımpaşa vs GAL — Elo differential -299 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Kasımpaşa recent form** — LDLWD last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **GAL recent form** — WLWWD last 10: 7-1-2 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 70% vs market price 2.31 at 1xbet, edge 27.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 44% vs market price 4.60 at 888Sport, edge 22.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 64% vs market price 1.83 at 1xbet, edge 9.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **Kasımpaşa in-form player** — Adrian Benedyczak — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.04. [^fact-10]: **GAL in-form player** — Victor Osimhen — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.01. [^fact-11]: **Kasımpaşa key absence** — Andreas Gianniotis out (suspension), 900 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **GAL key absence** — Victor Osimhen out (injury), 521 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .