# Kayserispor vs Konyaspor > Super Lig · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/911) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Kayserispor 2–1 Konyaspor ## Model verdict - **Kayserispor win:** 43% - **Draw:** 24% - **Konyaspor win:** 33% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Expectation Shift: Low-Scoring Edge Shapes the Big Underdog Tilt ## The stage Sun 17 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC is the kickoff for this Super Lig fixture[^fact-1]. The match carries the routine competitive importance of a late-season Super Lig tie, with the model assigning probabilities that make home advantage only a partial leveller: Home 43% / Draw 24% / Away 33%[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum The broad momentum picture favours the visitors. Kayserispor arrive with form labelled LDWLL over their last 10, a sequence that equates to 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses and 0.80 points per game, with 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Konyaspor’s recent sequence is LLWWW across 10, presented as 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses and 1.70 points per game, with 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo line, adjusted for home advantage, places Kayserispor 30 points below Konyaspor, a modest but meaningful edge to the visitors[^fact-3]. Putting those three threads together — lower points-per-game, worse defensive output at Kayserispor and a negative Elo differential — gives Konyaspor the clearer recent trajectory[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Kayserispor’s in-form mention is Miguel Cardoso, who has produced 0 goals and 2 assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.37[^fact-9]. That output suggests creative contribution without a goal threat in the immediate sample[^fact-9]. Konyaspor’s current in-form player flagged is Jackson Muleka, with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last four appearances and an average rating of 6.91[^fact-10]. In terms of absences, Kayserispor will miss Ramazan Civelek through suspension after 577 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. Konyaspor’s noted unavailability is Kazeem Olaigbe, sidelined by injury after 699 minutes in his recent run[^fact-12]. Each absence removes a player who has accumulated significant minutes lately, and those minute counts quantify the lost match-experience for each side[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model highlights clear market edges on low-scoring outcomes. The strongest single edge is Under 2.5 goals: the model assigns 72% to Under against a market price of 2.30 at 1xbet, an edge of 28.9 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. Closely aligned is the No on Both Teams to Score: the model gives No 69% versus a market price of 2.35 at 10Bet, an edge of 26.9 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-7]. Those two markets point to the same underlying view — a tight, low-scoring game — and their high-confidence tags underscore consistent model signals[^fact-6][^fact-7]. The model also finds value on the Away match-winner line: an away probability of 36% compared with a market price of 3.70 at Unibet, an edge of 8.8 percentage points and again described with high confidence[^fact-8]. These three markets were the ones analysed against the model in this piece[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The quantitative synthesis favours a low-scoring contest with a measurable lean to Konyaspor: the model’s overall match probabilities are Home 43% / Draw 24% / Away 33%, with an Elo deficit of 30 points for the home side and superior recent form and points-per-game for the visitors[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4]. The strongest model signals are for Under 2.5 goals and No on Both Teams to Score, both carried with high confidence, while the model also shows a modest edge for the away win in the match-winner market[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 14:00 UTC — Super Lig [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 43% / Draw 24% / Away 33% (source: model; confidence mid, 10 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — KAY vs KON — Elo differential -30 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **KAY recent form** — LDWLL last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **KON recent form** — LLWWW last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 72% vs market price 2.30 at 1xbet, edge 28.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 69% vs market price 2.35 at 10Bet, edge 26.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Away in Match Winner — model 36% vs market price 3.70 at Unibet, edge 8.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **KAY in-form player** — Miguel Cardoso — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.37. [^fact-10]: **KON in-form player** — Jackson Muleka — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.91. [^fact-11]: **KAY key absence** — Ramazan Civelek out (suspension), 577 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **KON key absence** — Kazeem Olaigbe out (injury), 699 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .