# Samsunspor vs Göztepe > Super Lig · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/912) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Samsunspor 3–0 Göztepe ## Model verdict - **Samsunspor win:** 34% - **Draw:** 41% - **Göztepe win:** 25% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Samsunspor's home edge tested as draw tempts markets ## The stage This fixture kicks off Sat 16 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC, a late-season Super Lig meeting that carries points for both sides[^fact-1]. The match is set up as a classic home-versus-away test on paper, with the model splitting outcomes across three plausible results[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Samsunspor arrive on the back of form that reads LWWWW over the last 10, a 5-2-3 record in that span, averaging 1.70 points per game and 1.80 goals scored and conceded per match[^fact-4]. Göztepe’s recent sequence is WDWDD — 3-5-2 in the last 10 — with 1.40 points per game and 1.50 goals scored versus 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo model gives Samsunspor a substantive edge once home advantage is applied: +118 points[^fact-3]. That combination — stronger Elo at home but narrower recent PPG gap — frames this as a match where Samsunspor are marginal favourites in underlying quality while Göztepe profile as harder to beat in recent results[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Samsunspor’s in-form attacking outlet is Marius Mouandilmadji, who has four goals and two assists in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.33 in that run[^fact-9]. Göztepe’s recent offensive spark was Juan, who collected three goals and one assist in his last five appearances with an average rating of 6.91, but he is listed out injured after 819 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10][^fact-12]. Samsunspor will be without Joe Mendes through suspension after 623 minutes of involvement in the recent run, a notable absence for their available minutes pool[^fact-11]. The absence of Juan for Göztepe and Mendes for Samsunspor changes attacking textures on both sides and will be a key tactical variable heading into selection and set-piece planning[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market edges stand out from the model’s comparisons across the analysed markets (3 markets compared)[^fact-13]. First, the model flags the draw in Match Winner at 44% probability against a market price of 3.75 (Betway), an edge of 17.3 percentage points and identified with high confidence[^fact-6]. Second, the model gives Samsunspor the home Match Winner at 51% against a market price of 2.55 (1xbet), producing an 11.4 percentage point edge and again rated with high confidence[^fact-7]. Third, the model favours Under 2.5 goals at 51% versus a market price of 2.20 on the Betfair Exchange, an edge of 5.7 percentage points with mid confidence[^fact-8]. The market landscape therefore offers two sizable disagreements on the match-winner and a smaller divergence on total goals; the draw and home win both show material model-market gaps while under 2.5 is a narrower but still notable lean[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model’s raw probabilities place the draw as the single most likely outcome, with a home/draw/away split of Home 34% / Draw 41% / Away 25%, and the confidence gap to the runner-up sits at a mid level (7 percentage points difference reported by the model)[^fact-2]. That package — meaningful Elo advantage for Samsunspor, heavy recent scoring form from Mouandilmadji, the mutual absences of Mendes and Juan, and three clear market edges — points to a contested, low-to-medium scoring game where a draw is the model’s primary lean but a Samsunspor win remains well supported by underlying quality metrics[^fact-3][^fact-9][^fact-11][^fact-12][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Super Lig [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 34% / Draw 41% / Away 25% (source: model; confidence mid, 7 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Samsunspor vs GOZ — Elo differential +118 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Samsunspor recent form** — LWWWW last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **GOZ recent form** — WDWDD last 10: 3-5-2 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 44% vs market price 3.75 at Betway, edge 17.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 51% vs market price 2.55 at 1xbet, edge 11.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 51% vs market price 2.20 at Betfair Exchange, edge 5.7 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **Samsunspor in-form player** — Marius Mouandilmadji — 4 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.33. [^fact-10]: **GOZ in-form player** — Juan — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.91. [^fact-11]: **Samsunspor key absence** — Joe Mendes out (suspension), 623 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **GOZ key absence** — Juan out (injury), 819 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .