# Trabzonspor vs Gençlerbirliği > Super Lig · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/913) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Trabzonspor 0–3 Gençlerbirliği ## Model verdict - **Trabzonspor win:** 77% - **Draw:** 16% - **Gençlerbirliği win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy Elo Gap Makes Home Side Firm Pre-match Favourite ## The stage This Super Lig fixture kicks off Sun 17 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC, a late-afternoon slot that compresses the window for reaction and in-game adjustments[^fact-1]. The model paints a one-sided picture before a ball is kicked: Home 80% / Draw 13% / Away 7%, with a high-confidence 67 percentage-point gap to the runner-up probability[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum The two sides arrive on visibly different trajectories. The home side’s recent ten-match line reads WDLDD, recorded as 6-3-1 (W-D-L), producing 2.10 points per game with 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded on average[^fact-4]. The visitors’ sequence is WLWLL, shown as 2-2-6 (W-D-L), worth 0.80 points per game with 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those on-pitch trends are mirrored by a wide Elo gap: the home side holds a +413-point differential once home advantage is applied, a margin that usually implies a substantial quality mismatch on paper[^fact-3]. Put bluntly, the numbers identify a clear momentum and quality edge for the hosts: higher points-per-game, better goal difference per match and a large Elo cushion all stack in the same direction[^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Two players enter this game with modest recent contributions but contrasting profiles. Wagner Pina for the home side has produced 0 goals and 2 assists across his last four appearances, with an average rating of 6.95[^fact-9]. For the visitors, Adama Traoré has managed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five outings, averaging a 6.94 rating[^fact-10]. Availability questions are clearer-cut: André Onana is absent through injury after contributing 817 minutes in the recent run, a notable loss in continuity for the home side’s recent setup[^fact-11]. The visitors will also miss Thalisson through injury, who accounted for 720 minutes in the same run, removing one of their heavier-minute contributors[^fact-12]. The absences change selection puzzles but do not alter the relative form or Elo pictures already outlined[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s probability estimates diverge from public prices across three markets analysed, and those gaps point to specific value opportunities[^fact-13]. First, "No" in Both Teams to Score is the model’s top value call: 54% model probability versus a market price at 2.45 on Betfair, an edge of 13.5 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-6]. Second, the model finds value on Home in Match Winner: it assigns 44% to the home win against a market price shown as 3.25 at bet365, a 13.0-percentage-point edge (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Third, the Under in Goals O/U 2.5 is another lean: 54% model probability versus a market quote of 2.23 at 1xbet, an edge of 9.5 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-8]. All three value lines underline the same thematic read: the model anticipates a low-scoring, home-controlled game rather than a high-scoring, open contest, and the market prices leave room for a contrarian statistical stance[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. The fact that these discrepancies were found across three separate markets reinforces the internal consistency of the model’s view[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side — an 80% probability backed by a +413 Elo edge, superior recent form and clearer depth on the numbers — while also highlighting specific market inefficiencies on both teams not to score, home match winner and under 2.5 goals[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Super Lig [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 80% / Draw 13% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 67 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — TRA vs GSK — Elo differential +413 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **TRA recent form** — WDLDD last 10: 6-3-1 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **GSK recent form** — WLWLL last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 0.50 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 54% vs market price 2.45 at Betfair, edge 13.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 44% vs market price 3.25 at bet365, edge 13.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.23 at 1xbet, edge 9.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **TRA in-form player** — Wagner Pina — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.95. [^fact-10]: **GSK in-form player** — Adama Traoré — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.94. [^fact-11]: **TRA key absence** — André Onana out (injury), 817 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **GSK key absence** — Thalisson out (injury), 720 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . 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