# Famalicão vs Alverca > Liga Portugal · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 19:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/915) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Famalicão 1–0 Alverca ## Model verdict - **Famalicão win:** 78% - **Draw:** 14% - **Alverca win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Famalicão heavy favourites as model backs a low-scoring home win ## The stage This Liga Portugal fixture kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC, a late-evening slot that will decide the immediate fate of both teams over the final weekend of the calendar phase[^fact-1]. No stadium or crowd details are supplied in the available facts, so attention should focus on the numbers the model and Elo produce for this single match[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Famalicão arrive with a recent ten-match sequence showing four wins and six draws (4-6-0), delivering 1.80 points per game while averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Alverca’s ten-match return is more variable: three wins, four draws and three defeats (3-4-3), worth 1.30 points per game, with both goals for and against at 1.20 and 1.30 respectively[^fact-5]. On Elo, the home side carries a substantial edge: +235 points once home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. The model strongly favours the hosts — a 78% probability for a home win, with draws at 14% and the away win probability at 9% — and that projection comes with a high-confidence separation from the runner-up outcome (a 64 percentage-point gap to the next option)[^fact-2]. Together, form and Elo indicate Famalicão are the clear control side, while Alverca project as the more porous and less prolific outfit over the sample provided[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Key in-form players to watch are Mathias de Amorim for Famalicão — one goal and one assist across his last five appearances, carrying an average rating of 7.24[^fact-9] — and Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira for Alverca — one goal and two assists in his last four, with an average rating of 7.41[^fact-10]. Those figures place both men among their teams’ recent impact performers, though the balance of results and the Elo gap suggests Famalicão’s contributions are arriving within a steadier collective structure[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-3]. The supplied facts do not include a full squad list or information on absences, so no claims are made about suspensions or injuries. ## Where the model sees value Three market contrasts stand out, each with a clear model-to-market edge and high reported confidence. - Under 2.5 goals: the model assigns a 63% probability to under 2.5, versus a market price of 2.22 at Betano — an edge of 17.7 percentage points in the model’s favour[^fact-6]. Given Famalicão’s low conceded rate and Alverca’s modest scoring trend in the supplied samples, the under case is coherent with the team-level numbers[^fact-4][^fact-5]. - Both Teams to Score — No: the model’s 62% against the market price of 2.15 at WilliamHill yields a 15.5-point edge[^fact-7]. That aligns with Famalicão’s 0.80 goals conceded per match across the recent sample and the model’s general lean toward a single-side outcome[^fact-4][^fact-2]. - Match Winner — Home: the model’s home probability for Famalicão is 74% against a market price of 1.67 at 1xbet, producing a 14.4-point edge[^fact-8]. This mirrors the explicit model verdict and the Elo superiority applied to the home side[^fact-2][^fact-3]. A total of three markets were compared against the model in the provided analysis, giving a concise window into where disagreement with public prices is concentrated[^fact-11]. Taken together, the model prefers containment (low total goals) and a decisive home result, rather than an open, end-to-end affair[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is emphatic: Famalicão are the strong favourites (78% model probability) with a clear Elo advantage, and the statistical profile points toward a low-scoring, home-controlled affair — expect under 2.5 goals and a likelihood that both teams will not score, with the home win the dominant scenario[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 19:30 UTC — Liga Portugal [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 78% / Draw 14% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 64 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — FCF vs ALV — Elo differential +235 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FCF recent form** — DDWDD last 10: 4-6-0 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ALV recent form** — DLWLW last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 63% vs market price 2.22 at Betano, edge 17.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 62% vs market price 2.15 at WilliamHill, edge 15.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Home in Match Winner — model 74% vs market price 1.67 at 1xbet, edge 14.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **FCF in-form player** — Mathias de Amorim — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.24. [^fact-10]: **ALV in-form player** — Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.41. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .