# Casa Pia vs Rio Ave > Liga Portugal · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/919) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Casa Pia 1–1 Rio Ave ## Model verdict - **Casa Pia win:** 70% - **Draw:** 18% - **Rio Ave win:** 12% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear model edge points to low-scoring Casa Pia favourite ## The stage This Liga Portugal fixture kicks off on Sat 16 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The match sits late in the campaign and the model gives a pronounced probability split that favours the home side[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Casa Pia arrive on subdued recent numbers: WLLLD across their last 10 matches, a 1-4-5 record with 0.70 points per game, 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Rio Ave’s sequence is steadier: LDLDW across their last 10, recorded as 4-3-3 (W-D-L), with 1.50 points per game, 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model’s Elo assessment applies a 74-point edge to the home side after factoring in venue effects[^fact-3], which helps explain why the probabilistic verdict strongly favours the hosts[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Casa Pia’s most notable recent contributor in the data is Gaizka Larrazabal, who has 1 goal and 0 assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 6.84[^fact-9]. Rio Ave’s top in-form mention is Diogo Bezerra, with 1 goal, 1 assist in his last five and an average rating of 7.11[^fact-10]. The strongest single absence recorded in the supplied facts is Rio Ave’s Ryan, out through suspension after 404 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model flags low-scoring outcomes as the clearest market inefficiency. "Under 2.5 goals" is modelled at 73% against a market price of 2.00 at Sbo, an edge of 23.0 percentage points and rated with high confidence[^fact-6]. "Both teams to score — No" is modelled at 64% versus a market price of 1.95 at bet365, an edge of 12.5 percentage points and also marked high confidence[^fact-7]. On the match-winner market the model places Home at 66% while the market price listed at 1xbet is 1.77, an edge of 9.5 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-8]. Three markets were compared against the model for these edges[^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side with a 69% match-win probability, a draw at 19% and away at 12%, producing a clear home-favouring outlook and a strong signal toward a tight, low-scoring game[^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Liga Portugal [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 69% / Draw 19% / Away 12% (source: model; confidence high, 50 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — CPAC vs RAFC — Elo differential +74 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **CPAC recent form** — WLLLD last 10: 1-4-5 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 0.50 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **RAFC recent form** — LDLDW last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 73% vs market price 2.00 at Sbo, edge 23.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 64% vs market price 1.95 at bet365, edge 12.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Home in Match Winner — model 66% vs market price 1.77 at 1xbet, edge 9.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **CPAC in-form player** — Gaizka Larrazabal — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.84. [^fact-10]: **RAFC in-form player** — Diogo Bezerra — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.11. [^fact-11]: **RAFC key absence** — Ryan out (suspension), 404 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .