# Estoril vs Benfica > Liga Portugal · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 19:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/920) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Estoril 1–3 Benfica ## Model verdict - **Estoril win:** 11% - **Draw:** 16% - **Benfica win:** 73% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear away-edge for the visitors as stats point to a tidy finish ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 16 May 2026, 19:30 UTC for this Liga Portugal fixture[^fact-1]. The match pairs EPF and SLB in a tie that carries domestic-league implications across the final weeks of the season[^fact-1][^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum EPF arrive on a worrying run: DDLLL across their last 10 results, a 1-3-6 split (W-D-L) that has produced just 0.60 points per game and an average of 0.70 goals scored while conceding 1.50 per match[^fact-4]. SLB, by contrast, have a far healthier sequence of DDWWW in their last 10, a 6-4-0 record delivering 2.20 points per game and averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo comparison underlines the gap: the model-applied rating differential gives SLB a -272 point edge when home advantage is applied to EPF, a substantial structural advantage for the visitors[^fact-3]. The model verdict is correspondingly lop-sided: Home 11% / Draw 16% / Away 73%, with the model reporting high confidence and a 57 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Personnel EPF’s most notable in-form attacking outlet in the short run is Yanis Begraoui, who has scored 2 goals with no assists in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 6.79 over that span[^fact-9]. EPF will also be missing Pedro Carvalho to suspension; he has logged 405 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes a chunk of the side’s recent minutes[^fact-11]. SLB’s short-term match-turning figure is Andreas Schjelderup, with 3 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.30 over that period[^fact-10]. SLB will be without Gianluca Prestianni through suspension, a player who accounted for 599 minutes in the recent run and whose absence alters attacking options for the visitors[^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market lines were analysed against the model[^fact-13]. The clearest edge is on the Under 2.5 goals market: the model assigns a 54% probability to Under 2.5 while the market price sits at 3.03 with Pinnacle, producing a model-market gap of 21.4 percentage points and high confidence from the model[^fact-6]. The model also flags Both Teams to Score (Yes) as a value line: model 68% versus a market price of 1.71 at 1xbet, an edge of 10.0 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-7]. There is a contradictory signal on Over 2.5 goals where the model shows a 72% probability against a market price of 1.45 at 10Bet, an edge of 3.3 percentage points but with low confidence flagged by the model[^fact-8]. The coexistence of value on both Under 2.5 and on Both Teams to Score suggests the model foresees many low-scoring matches that still carry a good chance of both sides finding the net at least once[^fact-6][^fact-7]. That tension between low expected totals and high BTTS probability is consistent with a match where one side is superior in quality yet both retain offensive capability while defensive frailties remain present in the home side’s recent numbers[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans strongly toward the away side with a 73% probability for SLB and a high-confidence gap to the runner-up outcome, reflecting a -272 point Elo differential and the recent form contrast between the sides[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4]. In-play narratives to watch: EPF without Carvalho and SLB without Prestianni change personnel balance, while Begraoui and Schjelderup remain the short-run outlets most likely to affect the scoreline[^fact-11][^fact-12][^fact-9][^fact-10]. The principal market edges sit on Under 2.5 at Pinnacle and on Both Teams to Score at 1xbet, with an additional lower-confidence signal for Over 2.5 at 10Bet[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 19:30 UTC — Liga Portugal [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 11% / Draw 16% / Away 73% (source: model; confidence high, 57 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — EPF vs SLB — Elo differential -272 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **EPF recent form** — DDLLL last 10: 1-3-6 (W-D-L), 0.60 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SLB recent form** — DDWWW last 10: 6-4-0 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.03 at Pinnacle, edge 21.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 68% vs market price 1.71 at 1xbet, edge 10.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 72% vs market price 1.45 at 10Bet, edge 3.3 pp (low confidence). [^fact-9]: **EPF in-form player** — Yanis Begraoui — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.79. [^fact-10]: **SLB in-form player** — Andreas Schjelderup — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.30. [^fact-11]: **EPF key absence** — Pedro Carvalho out (suspension), 405 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **SLB key absence** — Gianluca Prestianni out (suspension), 599 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .