# Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 10:15 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/924) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Piast Gliwice 1–3 Raków Częstochowa ## Model verdict - **Piast Gliwice win:** 13% - **Draw:** 33% - **Raków Częstochowa win:** 54% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model backs visitors as suspended midfielder compounds hosts’ task ## The stage This Ekstraklasa game kicks off on Sun 17 May 2026 at 10:15 UTC[^fact-1]. The fixture sits late in the domestic calendar and presents a clear statistical picture from the model heading into the weekend[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form looks nearly identical on the surface: both sides carry a 4-3-3 record over their last 10 matches, presented as W-D-L sequences for Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa respectively[^fact-4][^fact-5]. That similarity extends to points per game — both average 1.50 PPG in that window[^fact-4][^fact-5] — and to expected attacking output, with both sides at 1.70 goals scored per match in the sample[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The small divergence shows up defensively: Piast conceding 1.50 per match while Raków permit 1.40 per match[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model applies an Elo framework that gives Raków a modest edge once home advantage is considered: the Elo differential is -6 points in this head-to-head with home advantage applied (i.e., marginally favouring the visitors under the model’s scaling)[^fact-3]. That margin is consistent with the model’s match verdict, which places Piast as the 12% outcome, the draw at 35%, and Raków as the 52% outcome — the model’s top pick by a clear 17 percentage-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Piast’s most noted recent contributor in the dataset is Patryk Dziczek, who has 1 goal and 0 assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.12 across those games[^fact-9]. The hosts also face a significant disciplinary blow: Grzegorz Tomasiewicz is suspended and misses minutes accumulated to 779 in the recent run[^fact-11]. Raków’s in-form reference here is Jonatan Braut Brunes, who has 3 goals and 0 assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.33 in that span[^fact-10]. Raków will also be without Fran Tudor due to injury, depriving the team of a player who logged 494 minutes in the recent run[^fact-12]. Those availability notes matter because the model’s probabilities reflect both team-level form and the impact of absences and current player output; the slim Elo edge for the visitors and the model’s higher probability for an away win sit alongside these personnel swings[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were analysed against the model for value opportunities[^fact-13]. The clearest edge sits on Raków in Match Winner: the model assigns a 46% chance to an away victory versus a market price of 2.77 at Pinnacle, producing a quoted edge of 9.9 percentage points and recorded with high confidence[^fact-6]. The second value signal is for the draw: the model’s 39% probability contrasts with a market price of 3.40 at Dafabet, giving an edge of 9.4 percentage points, again flagged with high confidence[^fact-7]. The third identified edge is curiously on the home Match Winner outcome: the model’s implied 44% sits against a Pinnacle price of 2.76, an edge of 7.6 percentage points, but noted with only mid confidence in the analysis[^fact-8]. These three edges come from the same comparative process between model and market; the dataset records three markets evaluated for edges in total[^fact-13]. The model’s top probabilistic view, however, still favours the away outcome overall by a substantial margin in its own ranking[^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans solidly toward the visitors, assigning Raków the clear highest probability at 52% and placing the draw and home outcomes well behind at 35% and 12% respectively — a top pick with a 17 percentage-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. That preference is supported by a small negative Elo differential for the hosts (-6 points after home advantage is applied)[^fact-3], a marginally better defensive record for Raków over the recent sample[^fact-5], and the value signal on an away match-winner within the scrutinised markets[^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 10:15 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 12% / Draw 35% / Away 52% (source: model; confidence high, 17 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa — Elo differential -6 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Piast Gliwice recent form** — DDWDL last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Raków Częstochowa recent form** — LWWWD last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 46% vs market price 2.77 at Pinnacle, edge 9.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Draw in Match Winner — model 39% vs market price 3.40 at Dafabet, edge 9.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Home in Match Winner — model 44% vs market price 2.76 at Pinnacle, edge 7.6 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **Piast Gliwice in-form player** — Patryk Dziczek — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.12. [^fact-10]: **Raków Częstochowa in-form player** — Jonatan Braut Brunes — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.33. [^fact-11]: **Piast Gliwice key absence** — Grzegorz Tomasiewicz out (suspension), 779 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Raków Częstochowa key absence** — Fran Tudor out (injury), 494 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .