# Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 10:15 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/924) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Piast Gliwice win:** 13% - **Draw:** 35% - **Raków Częstochowa win:** 53% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Away | 2.77 | Pinnacle | 46% | +9.9 pp | | h2h | Draw | 3.40 | Dafabet | 39% | +9.4 pp | | h2h | Home | 2.76 | Pinnacle | 44% | +7.6 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model Leans Strongly Toward Raków Despite Tight Recent Form ## The stage This Ekstraklasa fixture kicks off on Sun 17 May 2026 at 10:15 UTC and carries late-season weight for both clubs in domestic competition[^fact-1]. The model assigns a clear probability split to the three-way outcome: Home 13% / Draw 35% / Away 53%, a margin that reflects a decisive edge to the travelling side and a high-confidence preference with an 18 percentage-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. The Elo differential, already adjusted for home advantage, shows a small negative edge for the hosts at -6 points[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum On raw form, both teams present remarkably similar snapshots across the last 10 matches: Piast Gliwice’s sequence reads DDWDL and the numbers translate to 1.50 points per game with 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Raków’s last 10 are LWWWD, producing the same 1.50 points per game figure, with 1.70 goals scored and a marginally better defensive return of 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The parity in points per game and goals scored underlines why the model’s probability distribution separates outcomes largely on factors outside raw recent form[^fact-2][^fact-4][^fact-5]. With Elo also tilted slightly toward the away side after home adjustment, the data suggest small but meaningful edges that compound in the model’s forecast[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Piast’s most in-form contributor in the short term is Patryk Dziczek, who has one goal, no assists and an average rating of 7.12 across his last five appearances[^fact-9]. Raków’s clear short-term attacking threat is Jonatan Braut Brunes, with three goals, no assists and an average rating of 7.33 in his last five outings[^fact-10]. Availability is a concrete factor: Piast will be without Grzegorz Tomasiewicz due to suspension after 779 minutes in the recent run, a loss that removes a significant chunk of recent minutes from the host side’s rotation[^fact-11]. Raków meanwhile must cope without Fran Tudor through injury, who accounted for 494 minutes in the recent sample[^fact-12]. The absences are quantifiable and have been incorporated into the model’s output rather than treated as narrative speculation[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Across the markets analysed, three specific edges stand out where the model diverges materially from bookmaker prices[^fact-13]. First, the model rates the away Match Winner at 46% while Pinnacle offers an implied market price of 2.77, producing an edge of 9.9 percentage points and flagged with high confidence by the model[^fact-6]. Second, the draw outcome is also a sizeable model-market gap: the model assigns a 39% chance to a draw vs Dafabet’s price of 3.40, an edge of 9.4 percentage points and again a high-confidence signal[^fact-7]. Third, the home Match Winner shows a model probability of 44% against a Pinnacle price of 2.76, an edge of 7.6 percentage points classified with mid confidence[^fact-8]. These are the top discrepancies discovered when comparing model probabilities against three markets, and the model specifically highlights the away and draw probabilities as the most robust divergences[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is towards the away side, assigning Raków a 53% chance and leaving the draw and home results as less likely outcomes at 35% and 13% respectively; the projection is reinforced by a small Elo advantage for the visitors after home adjustment and the recent-form symmetry that makes marginal edges decisive[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 10:15 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 13% / Draw 35% / Away 53% (source: model; confidence high, 18 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa — Elo differential -6 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Piast Gliwice recent form** — DDWDL last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Raków Częstochowa recent form** — LWWWD last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 46% vs market price 2.77 at Pinnacle, edge 9.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Draw in Match Winner — model 39% vs market price 3.40 at Dafabet, edge 9.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Home in Match Winner — model 44% vs market price 2.76 at Pinnacle, edge 7.6 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **Piast Gliwice in-form player** — Patryk Dziczek — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.12. [^fact-10]: **Raków Częstochowa in-form player** — Jonatan Braut Brunes — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.33. [^fact-11]: **Piast Gliwice key absence** — Grzegorz Tomasiewicz out (suspension), 779 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Raków Częstochowa key absence** — Fran Tudor out (injury), 494 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .