# Deportivo La Coruña vs FC Andorra > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/928) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Deportivo La Coruña 2–1 FC Andorra ## Model verdict - **Deportivo La Coruña win:** 79% - **Draw:** 12% - **FC Andorra win:** 8% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear home advantage and low-scoring instincts shape expectations ## The stage Kickoff is at 12:00 UTC on Sunday 17 May 2026 in La Liga 2, a late-season fixture where points and psychological momentum still carry weight for both sides[^fact-1]. The model produces a decisive verdict: Home 79%, Draw 12%, Away 8% — the home selection leads the runner-up by 67 percentage points, indicating a high-confidence projection[^fact-2]. Three market lines were compared against the model for this preview[^fact-13]. ## Form & momentum Deportivo La Coruña arrive with a steady record across their last 10 matches: WWDWD, translating to 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 defeats, 2.20 points per game, 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per match[^fact-4]. FC Andorra have a strong recent run too — WLWWW in their last 10 (6-2-2), averaging 2.00 points per game, 2.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those surface numbers show both sides capable in attack, but the model’s underlying strength measure is heavily tilted: Deportivo hold an Elo edge of +170 points after applying home advantage, a margin that typically translates into clear favourite status in single-match models[^fact-3]. Combine that Elo gap with the model probabilities and the statistical picture favours a home-controlled match rather than an even shootout[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Deportivo’s in-form contributor to watch is Yeremay Hernández, with 1 goal and 2 assists in his last five appearances and an average match rating of 7.36 across that run[^fact-9]. His output accounts for a significant share of Deportivo’s recent attacking returns given the team’s 1.60 goals-per-game mark in the stated sample[^fact-4][^fact-9]. FC Andorra’s most notable recent performer is Dani Villahermosa, who has supplied 3 assists in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 6.99 across those matches[^fact-10]. Andorra also face a defensive loss: Théo Le Normand is out injured after contributing 224 minutes in the recent run, a notable absence given the team’s 0.90 conceded-per-match figure in the same sample[^fact-5][^fact-12]. Deportivo will be missing David Mella through injury, the club’s stated key absence[^fact-11]. Both absences are listed as important availability notes for each side and should influence defensive balance without being over-interpreted beyond the supplied facts[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies three edges versus market prices across the lines analysed[^fact-13]. The clearest value is the Match Winner market: the model assigns Home 75% while the market price at Dafabet implies a lower probability (odds 1.64), representing a 14.2 percentage-point edge and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. On totals, the model sees Under 2.5 goals at 56% against a market price of 2.15 at bet365, an edge of 9.6 percentage points and also tagged with high confidence[^fact-7]. Given Deportivo’s 0.80 goals conceded per match and Andorra’s 0.90 conceded per match in the recent samples, the under lean coheres with both teams’ defensive numbers in the supplied window[^fact-4][^fact-5]. A third, lower-confidence signal is No for Both Teams to Score: the model at 49% versus a market price of 2.25 at bet365, an edge of 4.4 percentage points but marked as low confidence[^fact-8]. That line sits between the decisive home-win projection and the under-goals view and is the least certain of the three model-market discrepancies[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. All three market comparisons are drawn from the set of lines analysed for this report[^fact-13]. The strongest statistical contrasts are the large home-win probability and the under-2.5 goals projection, both carried with high model confidence[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is emphatically local: a 79% probability on a home result with a 67-point confidence gap to the runner-up, backed by a +170-point Elo advantage and complementary lower-total projections — the clearest signal in the supplied data is that Deportivo should control the match while the market underprices that control[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 79% / Draw 12% / Away 8% (source: model; confidence high, 67 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — COR vs AND — Elo differential +170 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **COR recent form** — WWDWD last 10: 6-4-0 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **AND recent form** — WLWWW last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 2.50 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 75% vs market price 1.64 at Dafabet, edge 14.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 56% vs market price 2.15 at bet365, edge 9.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 49% vs market price 2.25 at bet365, edge 4.4 pp (low confidence). [^fact-9]: **COR in-form player** — Yeremay Hernández — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.36. [^fact-10]: **AND in-form player** — Dani Villahermosa — 0 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.99. [^fact-11]: **COR key absence** — David Mella out (injury). [^fact-12]: **AND key absence** — Théo Le Normand out (injury), 224 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .