# Deportivo La Coruña vs FC Andorra > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/928) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Deportivo La Coruña win:** 79% - **Draw:** 12% - **FC Andorra win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Home | 1.64 | Dafabet | 75% | +14.2 pp | | totals | Under | 2.15 | bet365 | 56% | +9.6 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Elo gap and model favour home, under 2.5 lurks as value ## The stage This La Liga 2 fixture kicks off Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC and pits Deportivo La Coruña against FC Andorra[^fact-1]. The match sits in the league calendar with clear implications for both sides, but the model hands a pronounced home preference ahead of kickoff[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Deportivo (COR) arrives on the back of a WWDWD sequence in their last 10, producing 2.20 points per game with an average of 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per match in that span[^fact-4]. FC Andorra (AND) have been compact but more attack-minded over their last 10 with a WLWWW profile, 2.00 points per game and a higher scoring rate of 2.50 goals while conceding 0.90 on average[^fact-5]. Despite Andorra’s recent scoring, the model applies a substantial Elo edge to the hosts — COR hold a +170-point differential once home advantage is factored in[^fact-3]. That Elo cushion translates into the model’s strong probability split: Home 79%, Draw 12%, Away 9%[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Deportivo’s most noticeable in-form contributor is Yeremay Hernández with 1 goal and 2 assists in his last five appearances and an average match rating of 7.36[^fact-8]. For Andorra, Dani Villahermosa has been influential in chance creation with 0 goals and 3 assists across his last five outings and a 6.99 average rating[^fact-9]. Each side will be missing a defensive figure: Deportivo are without David Mella through injury[^fact-10], while Andorra will be without Théo Le Normand, who has featured for 224 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-11]. These absences reduce depth in either backline and deserve consideration when assessing how both teams might balance attack and cover. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies two market edges after comparing three markets to its own probabilities[^fact-12]. First, the Match Winner market shows value on the home win: the model prices the Home at 75% versus a market price of 1.64 at Dafabet, yielding an edge of 14.2 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, the Goals O/U 2.5 market tilts toward Under: the model assigns Under a 56% probability against a market price of 2.15 at bet365, producing an edge of 9.6 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Both edges are grounded in the model’s heavy home lean and the recent defensive numbers: Deportivo’s conceded rate of 0.80 and Andorra’s 0.90 per match in recent form underpin the plausibility of a lower-scoring game[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model’s verdict is unambiguous: a strong lean to the home side (79% model probability) supported by a +170 Elo advantage and a clear market edge on the home match-winner, with secondary value on Under 2.5 goals — the projection prioritises Deportivo’s home advantage and defensive solidity over Andorra’s recent attacking output[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 79% / Draw 12% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 67 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — COR vs AND — Elo differential +170 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **COR recent form** — WWDWD last 10: 6-4-0 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **AND recent form** — WLWWW last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 2.50 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 75% vs market price 1.64 at Dafabet, edge 14.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 56% vs market price 2.15 at bet365, edge 9.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **COR in-form player** — Yeremay Hernández — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.36. [^fact-9]: **AND in-form player** — Dani Villahermosa — 0 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.99. [^fact-10]: **COR key absence** — David Mella out (injury). [^fact-11]: **AND key absence** — Théo Le Normand out (injury), 224 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .