# Odense BK vs Vejle Boldklub > Superliga · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/931) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Odense BK win:** 75% - **Draw:** 17% - **Vejle Boldklub win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Home | 1.57 | Dafabet | 75% | +11.8 pp | | totals | Under | 2.90 | Unibet | 45% | +10.6 pp | | btts | No | 2.55 | Betfair | 47% | +7.7 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Odense favoured heavily as Vejle arrive on the ropes ## The stage Kickoff is set for Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC in a Superliga fixture that hands Odense the home role against Vejle Boldklub[^fact-1]. This is a domestic-league meeting where the model gives a clear home tilt: 75% for the hosts, 14% for a draw and 11% for the away win, with a high-confidence 61 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form lines draw a stark contrast. Odense’s sequence reads DLWLW across the last 10 results, recorded as 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats with 1.40 points per game, 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Vejle arrive on a far weaker run: WLLLL across their last 10, recorded as 1 win, 4 draws and 5 defeats with 0.70 points per game, 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model’s underlying strength assessment applies a sizable Elo edge to Odense — +241 points after home advantage is applied — which helps explain the magnitude of the home lean[^fact-3]. Taken together, the recent outputs and the Elo differential give Odense both the form profile and the underlying rating advantage heading into the game[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Odense’s in-form figure to watch is Fiete Arp, who has 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.42 across that span[^fact-9]. That attacking return is part of why Odense look sharper going forward in recent matches[^fact-9]. The biggest available concern for Odense is the suspension of goalkeeper Viljar Myhra, who misses out after 839 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. Vejle’s situation is compromised by the loss of Lasse Flø: he registered 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances and averaged a 6.92 rating, yet he is unavailable due to injury after 900 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10][^fact-12]. In short, Odense retain a clear attacking reference in Arp while Vejle lose their noted recent contributor in Flø; at the same time Odense must reshuffle a goalkeeper position due to Myhra’s suspension[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were assessed against the model’s probabilities[^fact-13]. The clearest value sits on the home Match Winner: the model prices the home at 75% while the market price of 1.57 at Dafabet implies a lower probability, leaving an edge of 11.8 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-6]. Second, the model points to an Under 2.5 goals angle: the model assigns 45% to Under 2.5 while Unibet’s 2.90 market implies a different probability, producing an edge of 10.6 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-7]. Third, the model sees middling value on Both Teams to Score — No: the model has 47% for No versus Betfair’s 2.55 price, an edge of 7.7 percentage points and only mid-level confidence[^fact-8]. All three recommendations come from a direct model-vs-market comparison of the three markets analysed[^fact-13][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s verdict is unequivocal: a strong home lean with Odense favoured at 75%, supported by a +241 Elo edge and contrasting form lines, while market prices leave measurable edges on Home, Under 2.5 and Both Teams No — the highest-confidence advantages are the home match-winner and the under 2.5 market[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 75% / Draw 14% / Away 11% (source: model; confidence high, 61 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ODE vs Vejle Boldklub — Elo differential +241 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ODE recent form** — DLWLW last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Vejle Boldklub recent form** — WLLLL last 10: 1-4-5 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 75% vs market price 1.57 at Dafabet, edge 11.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 45% vs market price 2.90 at Unibet, edge 10.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 47% vs market price 2.55 at Betfair, edge 7.7 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **ODE in-form player** — Fiete Arp — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.42. [^fact-10]: **Vejle Boldklub in-form player** — Lasse Flø — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.92. [^fact-11]: **ODE key absence** — Viljar Myhra out (suspension), 839 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Vejle Boldklub key absence** — Lasse Flø out (injury), 900 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .