# Odense BK vs Vejle Boldklub > Superliga · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/931) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Odense BK 0–1 Vejle Boldklub ## Model verdict - **Odense BK win:** 76% - **Draw:** 14% - **Vejle Boldklub win:** 10% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home heavy: Clear quantitative edge and low-scoring lean ## The stage This is a Superliga fixture kicking off Sun 17 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC, tied to the regular-season calendar rather than a cup one[^fact-1]. The timing and competition label frame it as a standard league match; specifics about venue or table implications are not provided in the supplied facts[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent form separates the sides sharply. Odense’s ten-match snapshot reads DLWLW, a sequence treated as 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in the same window and producing 1.40 points per game, with an average of 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Vejle’s ten-match picture reads WLLLL, recorded as 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses for 0.70 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.70 per match[^fact-5]. The model places a large home probability on Odense — 76% for a home win, 14% for a draw and 10% for an away win — underlining the gap in recent trajectories[^fact-2]. That quantitative gap is reinforced by the Elo differential once home advantage is applied: Odense sits +241 Elo points clear of Vejle in the head-to-head comparison used by the model[^fact-3]. In short, both form-based rates and Elo point separation point to a clear momentum edge for the home side[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Attack-wise, Odense’s notable in-form contributor is Fiete Arp, who has delivered 2 goals and 1 assist across his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.42 in that span[^fact-9]. Vejle’s most recently productive player in the supplied facts is Lasse Flø, with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five and an average rating of 6.92 — but that profile is complicated by a key availability issue[^fact-10][^fact-12]. Absences reshape the picture. Odense will miss Viljar Myhra through suspension; Myhra logged 839 minutes in the recent run before his ban[^fact-11]. Vejle will be without Lasse Flø due to injury; Flø had accumulated 900 minutes in the recent period prior to being ruled out[^fact-12]. The combination of Odense losing a regular-minute player to suspension and Vejle losing its noted recent contributor to injury is a material personnel dynamic drawn directly from the minute totals and availability facts provided[^fact-11][^fact-12][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value Market comparisons were performed across three markets in total[^fact-13]. The clearest edge is on the home Match Winner line: the model assigns 75% to the home victory while the market price quoted at Dafabet converts to an implied probability around the 1.57 price level, leaving an edge of 11.8 percentage points in the model’s favour (high confidence in that signal)[^fact-6]. A secondary signal points down on overall scoring. The model gives Under 2.5 goals a 45% chance versus a market price at Unibet of 2.90, leaving an edge of 10.6 percentage points and indicating a tilt toward a lower-scoring outcome relative to the market (high confidence)[^fact-7]. A third, more moderate discrepancy concerns both teams to score: the model’s No sits at 47% against a Betfair price of 2.55, an edge of 7.7 percentage points and a mid-confidence signal suggesting the market may be overestimating the likelihood of both sides finding the net[^fact-8]. Those three value signals — home win, Under 2.5, and No on both teams to score — line up cohesively. The home-win signal is dominant in probability terms and is supported by Elo and recent-form differentials, while the two lower-scoring signals fit the goals-for/goals-against rates and the model’s lower expectation for an away scoring surge[^fact-6][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward the home side, assigning a 76% chance to a home win and a 62 percentage-point confidence gap to the next-best outcome, a level flagged as high confidence in the model verdict summary[^fact-2]. That lean is coherent with the +241 Elo edge and the divergent form lines; the scoring indicators also push toward a contained, lower-scoring match profile rather than a shootout[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 76% / Draw 14% / Away 10% (source: model; confidence high, 62 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ODE vs Vejle Boldklub — Elo differential +241 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ODE recent form** — DLWLW last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Vejle Boldklub recent form** — WLLLL last 10: 1-4-5 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 75% vs market price 1.57 at Dafabet, edge 11.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 45% vs market price 2.90 at Unibet, edge 10.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 47% vs market price 2.55 at Betfair, edge 7.7 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **ODE in-form player** — Fiete Arp — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.42. [^fact-10]: **Vejle Boldklub in-form player** — Lasse Flø — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.92. [^fact-11]: **ODE key absence** — Viljar Myhra out (suspension), 839 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Vejle Boldklub key absence** — Lasse Flø out (injury), 900 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .