# Fredericia vs Silkeborg IF > Superliga · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/932) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Fredericia win:** 55% - **Draw:** 19% - **Silkeborg IF win:** 25% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 2.75 | Unibet | 54% | +18.0 pp | | btts | No | 2.85 | Unibet | 50% | +14.7 pp | | h2h | Away | 3.27 | Cashpoint | 41% | +10.2 pp | | h2h | Home | 2.20 | Sbo | 55% | +9.8 pp | | btts | Yes | 1.44 | 888Sport | 74% | +4.1 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and low-scoring profile dominate pre-match read ## The stage Sunrise in Denmark brings a Superliga fixture with kickoff set for Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC. [^fact-1] The match carries routine league significance; the model gives Fredericia the clear narrow edge in probability terms, with the home side on 55% versus a 25% chance for the away win and 19% for a draw. [^fact-2] ## Form & momentum Recent results paint contrasting trajectories. Fredericia have managed two wins, four draws and four defeats in their last ten, a 2-4-4 run that yields 1.00 points per game and an attacking output of 1.30 goals while conceding 1.90 per match. [^fact-4] Silkeborg IF arrive with a healthier sequence: five wins, two draws, three defeats in their last ten (5-2-3), producing 1.70 points per game with 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded on average. [^fact-5] The Elo sheet favours the hosts once home advantage has been applied: Fredericia hold a +28-point Elo differential over Silkeborg IF after that adjustment. [^fact-3] That gap aligns with the model’s preference for the home side, but Silkeborg’s superior recent points per game suggests a side trending better in form even if Elo and home bias tilt the balance. [^fact-2][^fact-5][^fact-3] ## Personnel Fredericia’s most notable recent attacking form comes from Jonatan Holm Lindekilde, who has three goals and no assists in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 6.99 across that run. [^fact-9] A key absence for Fredericia is Emilio Simonsen, suspended after 442 minutes in the recent run; his unavailability removes a chunk of minutes from the squad. [^fact-11] Silkeborg’s in-form outlet is Callum McCowatt, who has two goals and three assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.66 across those matches. [^fact-10] There are no other named personnel changes in the supplied facts; analysis must therefore weigh form numbers and the suspension above tactical speculation. [^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11] ## Where the model sees value Three market contrasts against the model stand out, with marketplaces specified for each. First, the model projects Under 2.5 goals at 54% probability versus the market line priced at 2.75 with Unibet listed, producing an 18.0 percentage-point edge and a high-confidence signal. [^fact-6] Second, a No on Both Teams to Score carries a 50% model probability against a market price of 2.85 at Unibet, an edge of 14.7 percentage points flagged with high confidence. [^fact-7] Third, despite the home lean from the model, the model still sees an Away match-winner probability of 41% versus a market price of 3.27 at Cashpoint, creating a 10.2 percentage-point edge and again tagged with high confidence. [^fact-8] All three contrasts were part of the markets analysed prior to this piece. [^fact-12] Note the pattern: two of the model’s highest-confidence edges point toward lower-scoring outcomes and matches where both teams do not score, while the third identifies value on the away side at a specific market price despite the model’s nominal home tilt. [^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8] ## Verdict The model leans to the home side, Fredericia, at 55% with a clear Elo edge once home advantage is applied (+28 Elo), but the underlying form metrics favour Silkeborg’s momentum; the clearest model-market value sits with lower-scoring outcomes (Under 2.5 and No BTTS) while an elevated away-win probability versus market price also registers as a high-confidence anomaly. [^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-12] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 55% / Draw 19% / Away 25% (source: model; confidence high, 30 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Fredericia vs SIL — Elo differential +28 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Fredericia recent form** — LDLDD last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SIL recent form** — LWWWD last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.75 at Unibet, edge 18.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 50% vs market price 2.85 at Unibet, edge 14.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Away in Match Winner — model 41% vs market price 3.27 at Cashpoint, edge 10.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **Fredericia in-form player** — Jonatan Holm Lindekilde — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.99. [^fact-10]: **SIL in-form player** — Callum McCowatt — 2 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.66. [^fact-11]: **Fredericia key absence** — Emilio Simonsen out (suspension), 442 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .