# Fredericia vs Silkeborg IF > Superliga · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/932) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Fredericia 4–1 Silkeborg IF ## Model verdict - **Fredericia win:** 55% - **Draw:** 20% - **Silkeborg IF win:** 25% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Slight home edge, market pricing tight on goals ## The stage This Superliga meeting kicks off Sun 17 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC, with Fredericia hosting the visitors from Silkeborg IF[^fact-1]. The fixture sits inside a short domestic calendar window and reads as a mid-table battle on paper given the market and model splits[^fact-2]. The model assigns the home side the single largest probability at 55%, with a draw on 20% and an away win on 25%[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form sketches two different shapes. Fredericia arrive on a run summarised as LDLDD over the last 10, registering a 2-4-4 record (W-D-L), 1.00 points per game and averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Silkeborg IF’s last 10 reads LWWWD, a 5-2-3 return with 1.70 points per game and averages of 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo ledger gives Fredericia an applied home advantage edge of +28 points over Silkeborg IF, which supports a home-leaning probability when translated into matchup expectation[^fact-3]. Taken together, the model’s 30 percentage-point gap to the next runner-up underlines confidence in the home verdict — the projection favours Fredericia while also implying a contest that could be decided by fine margins[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Fredericia’s most salient attacking spark in recent weeks has been Jonatan Holm Lindekilde, who has three goals and no assists across his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 6.99 in that window[^fact-9]. That return constitutes a meaningful share of Fredericia’s scoring given the team-level 1.30 goals per match figure noted above[^fact-4][^fact-9]. Silkeborg IF’s form player is Callum McCowatt, who arrives with two goals and three assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.66 over that span[^fact-10]. McCowatt’s direct contributions underpin Silvaeborg IF’s higher goals-per-game figure relative to Fredericia, and his creative output is a clear focal point for the away side’s chance creation[^fact-5][^fact-10]. The largest single personnel absence mentioned for this tie is Fredericia’s suspension of Emilio Simonsen, who has accumulated 442 minutes in the recent run and will be missing here[^fact-11]. That suspension removes a regularly used player from Fredericia’s rotation and is an important contextual datapoint given the model still favours the hosts[^fact-11][^fact-2]. ## Where the model sees value Three market edges emerge when the model is compared against available prices across three markets analysed[^fact-12]. First, the model prefers Under 2.5 goals: model probability 54% versus an offered market line priced at 2.75 (Unibet), yielding an 18.0 percentage-point edge and labelled with high confidence[^fact-6]. This aligns with both teams’ defensive concession rates and the modest scoring rates at the team level[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. Second, the model shows value on Both Teams to Score — No: model probability 50% versus a market price of 2.85 (Unibet), an edge of 14.7 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-7]. The combination of Fredericia’s 1.30 goals per match and Silkeborg IF’s 1.70 suggests that matches between these profiles can tip toward single-sided scoring, particularly with Fredericia missing a suspended player[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-11]. Third, despite the model favouring the home side overall, there is a model-market divergence on the Away Match Winner line: the model assigns Silkeborg IF a 41% chance versus a market price of 3.27 at Cashpoint, producing a 10.2 percentage-point edge (high confidence)[^fact-8]. That contrast—model favouring home in the match verdict yet assigning a substantive away probability in this specific market—signals a nuanced risk-reward profile if markets misprice the away upside[^fact-2][^fact-8]. All three edges were derived from the three markets analysed against the model framework referenced here[^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model leans toward Fredericia to take the three points while flagging a compact game shape: home advantage and a +28 Elo differential feed the 55% home probability, but underlying scoring rates and personnel dynamics make Under 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score — No the clearest model-backed value angles, with a secondary note that the away side carries a non-trivial chance in the market-specific Match Winner view[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 55% / Draw 20% / Away 25% (source: model; confidence high, 30 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Fredericia vs SIL — Elo differential +28 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Fredericia recent form** — LDLDD last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SIL recent form** — LWWWD last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.75 at Unibet, edge 18.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 50% vs market price 2.85 at Unibet, edge 14.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Away in Match Winner — model 41% vs market price 3.27 at Cashpoint, edge 10.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **Fredericia in-form player** — Jonatan Holm Lindekilde — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.99. [^fact-10]: **SIL in-form player** — Callum McCowatt — 2 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.66. [^fact-11]: **Fredericia key absence** — Emilio Simonsen out (suspension), 442 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .