# FC København vs Randers FC > Superliga · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/933) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **FC København win:** 78% - **Draw:** 13% - **Randers FC win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 2.45 | Betfair | 54% | +13.6 pp | | h2h | Home | 1.59 | 1xbet | 68% | +5.3 pp | | btts | No | 2.30 | Betfair | 47% | +3.1 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear home advantage, tempered by key absences and low-scoring tilt ## The stage Kickoff is set for Sun 17 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC in a Superliga fixture that the numbers treat as strongly one-sided[^fact-1][^fact-2]. The model places a dominant probability on the home side, and that shapes expectations for both game plan and market inefficiencies[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Form lines are distinct. Copenhagen carry a run summarised as WDWWW over the last 10 outings, translating to 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 1.90 points per game and an attacking output of 2.80 goals scored against 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Randers arrive in a mixed spell, DWLDL across their last 10 for 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, averaging 1.20 points per game with 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo comparison widens the gap further: Copenhagen have an applied Elo edge of +289 points after home advantage is factored in[^fact-3]. Combine that with the model assigning a 78% chance to the home win (with the model reporting high confidence and a 64 percentage-point gap to the next outcome), and the statistical narrative is one of clear Copenhagen control[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Copenhagen’s forward impetus has a clear focal point in Jordan Larsson, who has returned 3 goals and 1 assist across his last five appearances while posting an average rating of 7.32[^fact-9]. That form lines up with Copenhagen’s elevated goals-per-game figure in recent matches[^fact-4]. On Randers’ side, John Björkengren has been an in-form contributor with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five and an average rating of 7.17—but his availability is a major question, with Björkengren listed out through suspension after 900 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10][^fact-12]. The absence of Mohamed Elyounoussi is also material for Copenhagen, with Elyounoussi sidelined through injury after contributing 854 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. Those personnel bullet points cut both ways: Copenhagen lose an established minutes-earner, while Randers lose one of their best recent performers[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market contrasts stand out after comparing model probabilities to available prices across 3 markets[^fact-13]. First, the model favours Under 2.5 goals at 54% probability versus a 2.45 market price on Betfair, producing an edge of 13.6 percentage points and rated high confidence by the model[^fact-6]. Second, the model’s home-match-winner projection sits at 68% versus a 1.59 price on 1xBet, an edge of 5.3 percentage points with mid-level confidence[^fact-7]. Third, the model assigns a 47% chance to “No” on Both Teams to Score against a 2.30 Betfair price, an edge of 3.1 percentage points but with low confidence[^fact-8]. All three comparisons derive from the set of markets analysed and show different confidence bands from the model, which matters when weighting exposure[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The composite signal is unambiguous: model and Elo both point to Copenhagen as clear favourites, reflected in a 78% home-win projection and a +289 Elo margin with home advantage applied, though absences on both sides slightly complicate personnel matchups[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-11][^fact-12]. The model’s strongest single-market deviation is toward a low-scoring outcome (Under 2.5), followed by a substantive lean to the home win and a weaker signal for both teams not scoring[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 78% / Draw 14% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 64 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — COP vs RDF — Elo differential +289 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **COP recent form** — WDWWW last 10: 6-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 2.80 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **RDF recent form** — DWLDL last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.45 at Betfair, edge 13.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 68% vs market price 1.59 at 1xbet, edge 5.3 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 47% vs market price 2.30 at Betfair, edge 3.1 pp (low confidence). [^fact-9]: **COP in-form player** — Jordan Larsson — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.32. [^fact-10]: **RDF in-form player** — John Björkengren — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.17. [^fact-11]: **COP key absence** — Mohamed Elyounoussi out (injury), 854 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **RDF key absence** — John Björkengren out (suspension), 900 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .