# FC København vs Randers FC > Superliga · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/933) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** FC København 5–0 Randers FC ## Model verdict - **FC København win:** 78% - **Draw:** 13% - **Randers FC win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy favourite backed by Elo and recent form ## The stage This Superliga fixture kicks off on Sun 17 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC and will be played with FC København as the home side. [^fact-1] The match carries the routine pressure of late-season league football: a home team expected to consolidate position and a visiting side with fewer recent returns to change momentum. The model gives a clear probability split for the 90 minutes. [^fact-2] ## Form & momentum Form lines point decisively towards the hosts. FC København have produced a WDWWW sequence in their last 10 matches, translating to a 6-1-3 W-D-L record and 1.90 points per game, while scoring 2.80 and conceding 1.20 per match in that span. [^fact-4] By contrast, Randers FC arrive on a DWLDL run across 10 games, a 3-3-4 record and 1.20 points per game, with 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5] Beyond form snapshots, the quantitative gap is large: with home advantage applied, the Elo differential sits at +289 points in favour of the hosts. [^fact-3] Taken together, the recent performances and the Elo edge explain why the predictive model assigns a heavy home probability and only a single-digit chance to the visitors. [^fact-2] ## Personnel FC København’s leading on-field spark in recent weeks has been Jordan Larsson, who has 3 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average match rating of 7.32. [^fact-9] The hosts will be without Mohamed Elyounoussi through injury; Elyounoussi has logged 854 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes a sizeable chunk of attacking minutes. [^fact-11] For Randers, John Björkengren had been an in-form contributor with 1 goal and 1 assist across his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.17, but he is suspended and unavailable after contributing 900 minutes in the recent run. [^fact-10] [^fact-12] Those two unavailabilities are the most consequential personnel notes the data provides: Copenhagen lose a regular attacking option while Randers lose their most consistent recent performer. [^fact-11] [^fact-12] ## Where the model sees value The model identifies multiple edges relative to market prices across three markets analysed. [^fact-13] - Under 2.5 goals: the model gives the Under a 54% probability versus a market price implying a lower chance (market price 2.45 at Betfair), producing an edge of 13.6 percentage points and flagged with high confidence. [^fact-6] - Home match-winner: the model rates the home side at 68% probability against a market price of 1.59 offered at 1xBet, an edge of 5.3 percentage points and judged with mid confidence. [^fact-7] - Both Teams to Score — No: the model places a 47% probability on No, versus the market priced at 2.30 at Betfair, an edge of 3.1 percentage points with lower confidence attached. [^fact-8] These three edges cover outcomes that are internally consistent with the form and personnel picture: Copenhagen’s superior goals-for rate and Elo lead sit next to a model expectation that the fixture can still fall on the low-scoring side, while Randers’ defensive vulnerability and loss of their in-form midfielder reduce the likelihood of a two-way scoring affair. [^fact-4] [^fact-5] [^fact-3] [^fact-12] ## Verdict The model’s lean is clear: a strong home probability (78%) with a material confidence gap to the runner-up outcome, supporting a home win as the primary forecast, while also seeing value in markets that expect a lower-scoring game or a clean sheet for one side. [^fact-2] [^fact-7] [^fact-6] [^fact-8] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 78% / Draw 13% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 65 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — COP vs RDF — Elo differential +289 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **COP recent form** — WDWWW last 10: 6-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 2.80 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **RDF recent form** — DWLDL last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.45 at Betfair, edge 13.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 68% vs market price 1.59 at 1xbet, edge 5.3 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 47% vs market price 2.30 at Betfair, edge 3.1 pp (low confidence). [^fact-9]: **COP in-form player** — Jordan Larsson — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.32. [^fact-10]: **RDF in-form player** — John Björkengren — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.17. [^fact-11]: **COP key absence** — Mohamed Elyounoussi out (injury), 854 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **RDF key absence** — John Björkengren out (suspension), 900 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .