# AZ vs NAC Breda > Eredivisie · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 12:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/934) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** AZ 3–3 NAC Breda ## Model verdict - **AZ win:** 78% - **Draw:** 15% - **NAC Breda win:** 8% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy Home Favourite Backed by Strong Model Edge Today ## The stage A late-May Eredivisie fixture kicks off Sun 17 May 2026, 12:30 UTC, with the home side expected to set the tone from the off.[^fact-1] This match sits against a backdrop where the predictive model assigns a decisive probability to the home outcome: Home 78% / Draw 15% / Away 8%, a split that signals one clear favourite on the ledger.[^fact-2] ## Form & momentum Recent results underline that gap. The home side arrive in a patch of mixed-but-recovering form: DDDWW over the last 10 matches, a run that the summary converts to 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats and an average of 1.50 points per game; their attacking and defensive outputs read 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match in the sample.[^fact-4] The visitors are noticeably cooler. Their last 10 show WLLDD, a 2-3-5 balance and 0.90 points per game, with a goals profile of 0.80 scored and 1.90 conceded per match.[^fact-5] Those form lines are reflected in an Elo differential that leaves little doubt: the home side hold an Elo edge of +324 points after home advantage is applied — a margin that historically equates to substantial superiority on paper.[^fact-3] Bringing those three indicators together — model probabilities, recent form metrics and a large Elo gap — establishes a clear narrative hierarchy: the home side control both expectation and underlying strength.[^fact-2][^fact-4][^fact-3] ## Personnel Two players stand out for their immediate influence. For the home side, Sven Mijnans has been the in-form attacking figure, with 3 goals and no assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.42 across that span.[^fact-9] For the visitors, Boy Kemper has been the most effective recent performer, contributing 2 goals and no assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.22.[^fact-10] Availability will shape selection: the home side will be without Jordy Clasie due to injury, a player who logged 214 minutes in the recent run and whose absence removes a piece of recent rotation.[^fact-11] The visitors are missing Mohamed Nassoh through suspension; Nassoh provided 511 minutes in the recent run and his enforced absence is the heaviest personnel loss on that side.[^fact-12] These absences are significant only to the degree that they truncate minutes from each side’s recent patterns: the home side lose a contributor with 214 minutes, the visitors lose a 511-minute regular.[^fact-11][^fact-12] ## Where the model sees value The model-versus-market comparison highlights three clear edges across three markets analysed.[^fact-13] - Under in Goals O/U 2.5: the model assigns 57% probability to under 2.5 goals versus a market price implying lower likelihood at Betfair 3.10; the quoted edge is 24.7 percentage points and the model flags this as a high-confidence value pick.[^fact-6] - No in Both Teams to Score: the model marks a 61% probability that both teams will not score, with the market price at 888Sport standing at 2.40; the edge here is 19.0 percentage points and is presented with high confidence.[^fact-7] - Home in Match Winner: the model gives the home side a 77% chance, versus a market price at Dafabet of 1.39; the edge is 4.6 percentage points and carries mid confidence.[^fact-8] These three edges map cleanly onto the reading of the contest: a large Elo gap and a home-dominant model output push the match-winner line strongly home, while the modest scoring outputs and defensive profile of the visitors drive the under and no-BTS leanings.[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8] Note that the analysis compared three markets in total when generating these edges.[^fact-13] ## Verdict The model’s verdict is clear and consistent: a dominant home lean (77–78% territory) backed by a +324 Elo differential, recent form that favours the home side, and three market edges that converge on a low-scoring, home-controlled outcome.[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 12:30 UTC — Eredivisie [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 78% / Draw 15% / Away 8% (source: model; confidence high, 63 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — AZ vs NAC — Elo differential +324 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **AZ recent form** — DDDWW last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **NAC recent form** — WLLDD last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 57% vs market price 3.10 at Betfair, edge 24.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 61% vs market price 2.40 at 888Sport, edge 19.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Home in Match Winner — model 77% vs market price 1.39 at Dafabet, edge 4.6 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **AZ in-form player** — Sven Mijnans — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.42. [^fact-10]: **NAC in-form player** — Boy Kemper — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.22. [^fact-11]: **AZ key absence** — Jordy Clasie out (injury), 214 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **NAC key absence** — Mohamed Nassoh out (suspension), 511 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .