# AZ vs NAC Breda > Eredivisie · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 12:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/934) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **AZ win:** 78% - **Draw:** 14% - **NAC Breda win:** 8% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 3.10 | Betfair | 57% | +24.7 pp | | btts | No | 2.40 | 888Sport | 61% | +19.0 pp | | h2h | Home | 1.39 | Dafabet | 77% | +4.6 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear home ascendancy, low-scoring edges dominate the model view ## The stage This is an Eredivisie fixture with AZ hosting NAC Breda; kickoff is Sun 17 May 2026 at 12:30 UTC[^fact-1][^fact-3]. The scheduling makes this a single-match snapshot rather than part of a prolonged midweek cluster[^fact-1]. The model rates the home side decisively ahead, placing AZ as the strong favourite[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum AZ arrive on a run that reads DDDWW over the last 10 matches, translating to a 4-3-3 (W‑D‑L) split and 1.50 points per game, with 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-4]. NAC Breda’s sequence is WLLDD across 10, a 2-3-5 (W‑D‑L) record with 0.90 points per game, scoring 0.80 and conceding 1.90 on average[^fact-5]. The Elo differential, already adjusted for home advantage, sits at +324 in AZ’s favour, a gap that aligns with the model’s heavy home lean[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Taken together, form and Elo point to a clearer momentum advantage for AZ rather than a tight toss-up[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel AZ’s key in-form contributor in recent matches is Sven Mijnans, who has 3 goals and 0 assists in his last five appearances and an average match rating of 7.42[^fact-9]. NAC Breda’s most notable performer in the same window is Boy Kemper with 2 goals, 0 assists and an average rating of 7.22[^fact-10]. On absences, AZ will be missing Jordy Clasie due to injury; Clasie logged 214 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-11]. NAC will be without Mohamed Nassoh through suspension; Nassoh had 511 minutes in the recent sequence prior to that suspension[^fact-12]. These availability notes compress options for both sides and help explain parts of the model’s projections[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s market comparisons cover three markets in total[^fact-13]. First, the model flags the Under 2.5 goals market as the best single edge: the model assigns a 57% probability to Under 2.5 while the Betfair market price is 3.10, producing an edge of 24.7 percentage points and high confidence from the model[^fact-6][^fact-13]. Second, the model sees a strong chance that both teams will not score: a 61% model probability for “No” in Both Teams to Score versus a 2.40 market price at 888Sport yields a 19.0 percentage-point edge, again with high confidence[^fact-7][^fact-13]. Third, the Match Winner market favours the home win: the model gives Home a 77% probability compared with a 1.39 market price at Dafabet, an edge of 4.6 percentage points and mid confidence[^fact-8][^fact-13]. These three edges map cleanly onto the broader story — a heavy home favourite paired with a reasonable expectation of low scoring and at least one clean sheet[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s verdict is unambiguous: Home 78%, Draw 14%, Away 8% — a 64 percentage-point gap between the top pick and the runner-up — and the combined indicators (Elo, recent form, personnel) all reinforce AZ’s dominance[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. The probabilistic picture also tilts toward a low-scoring affair and a likely clean sheet for at least one side, which underpins the model’s most confident value recommendations[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 12:30 UTC — Eredivisie [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 78% / Draw 14% / Away 8% (source: model; confidence high, 64 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — AZ vs NAC — Elo differential +324 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **AZ recent form** — DDDWW last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **NAC recent form** — WLLDD last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 57% vs market price 3.10 at Betfair, edge 24.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 61% vs market price 2.40 at 888Sport, edge 19.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Home in Match Winner — model 77% vs market price 1.39 at Dafabet, edge 4.6 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **AZ in-form player** — Sven Mijnans — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.42. [^fact-10]: **NAC in-form player** — Boy Kemper — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.22. [^fact-11]: **AZ key absence** — Jordy Clasie out (injury), 214 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **NAC key absence** — Mohamed Nassoh out (suspension), 511 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .