# PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord > Eredivisie · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 12:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/939) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** PEC Zwolle 0–2 Feyenoord ## Model verdict - **PEC Zwolle win:** 15% - **Draw:** 18% - **Feyenoord win:** 68% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Feyenoord clear favourites as Zwolle face uphill task ## The stage Kickoff is on Sun 17 May 2026 at 12:30 UTC in the Eredivisie[^fact-1]. The fixture sits late in the domestic calendar; no venue is specified in the supplied facts, so team logistics and pitch specifics cannot be assessed here[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model assigns a pronounced probability to an away win: Away 68%, Draw 18%, Home 15% — a 50 percentage-point gap to the runner-up and a high-confidence verdict[^fact-2]. That aligns with a substantial Elo edge for Feyenoord: PEC vs FEY shows an Elo differential of -147 points with home advantage applied, a margin that typically signals a clear class gap[^fact-3]. Recent results amplify the difference in trajectories. PEC Zwolle's 10-match sequence reads LWLDL (2-5-3 W-D-L), producing 1.10 points per game, with 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per match over that span[^fact-4]. Feyenoord's last ten are DWWDD (4-5-1 W-D-L), worth 1.70 points per game, with 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those underlying numbers show Feyenoord both scoring more and leaking less across recent matches, which complements the Elo gap and the model's probabilities[^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Personnel PEC's principal form note is Thijs Oosting: one goal and two assists in his last five appearances, carrying an average rating of 7.02 in that run[^fact-9]. PEC also face the absence of Shola Shoretire, who is out injured after contributing 325 minutes in the recent run — a minutes total that removes a specific chunk of game time from PEC's rotation[^fact-11]. Feyenoord's most notable recent contributor is Ayase Ueda, with three goals and no assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.22 across those games[^fact-10]. However, Ueda is listed as out injured, and the supplied facts show he provided 823 minutes in the recent run before his absence — a sizeable share of attacking minutes Feyenoord will miss[^fact-12]. Both sides therefore approach the match with offensive personnel questions, but the model still leans heavily to the away side despite Ueda's unavailability[^fact-2][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model[^fact-13], producing clear edges where market prices diverge from model probabilities: - Home in Match Winner: the model projects Home at 44% against a market price of 4.50 at Unibet, an edge of 21.6 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Note that this model home probability (44%) sits well above the model's match-level home probability cited elsewhere; the standalone market comparison identifies value on the home selection relative to the specific book price[^fact-6][^fact-2]. - Under 2.5 goals: the model gives Under a 54% chance versus a market price of 3.00 at 10Bet, an edge of 21.0 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. That aligns with both teams' recent goals-per-game metrics: PEC averaging 1.10 and Feyenoord 1.50 in the supplied recent-run figures[^fact-4][^fact-5]. - Both Teams to Score — No: the model rates No at 50% against a market price of 2.88 at Betfair, an edge of 15.0 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. The No projection is consistent with PEC's recent concession rate of 2.00 goals per match and Feyenoord's 1.20 conceded per match; those figures point to an expectation of goals but not necessarily both sides scoring in every match, and the model highlights value on BTTS No relative to the market[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Each of these edges is flagged with high confidence in the supplied comparisons[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8], and they come from three markets examined against the model[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to Feyenoord with a 68% away probability and a clear Elo advantage of 147 points in their favour, despite Feyenoord missing Ayase Ueda's 823 minutes from the recent run[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-12]. PEC's recent form and personnel notes — 1.10 PPG and the absence of Shoretire after 325 minutes — help explain why the home side is a long shot in the model's view[^fact-4][^fact-11]. The market contains three identifiable edges to the model on Home match winner, Under 2.5 goals, and BTTS No, each reported with high confidence in the supplied analysis[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 12:30 UTC — Eredivisie [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 15% / Draw 18% / Away 68% (source: model; confidence high, 50 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — PEC vs FEY — Elo differential -147 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **PEC recent form** — LWLDL last 10: 2-5-3 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **FEY recent form** — DWWDD last 10: 4-5-1 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 44% vs market price 4.50 at Unibet, edge 21.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.00 at 10Bet, edge 21.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 50% vs market price 2.88 at Betfair, edge 15.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **PEC in-form player** — Thijs Oosting — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.02. [^fact-10]: **FEY in-form player** — Ayase Ueda — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.22. [^fact-11]: **PEC key absence** — Shola Shoretire out (injury), 325 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **FEY key absence** — Ayase Ueda out (injury), 823 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .