# Sturm Graz vs SK Rapid > Admiral Bundesliga · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 12:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/945) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Sturm Graz 2–0 SK Rapid ## Model verdict - **Sturm Graz win:** 74% - **Draw:** 16% - **SK Rapid win:** 10% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans heavily home as goals and both-teams flags tilt low ## The stage Admiral Bundesliga action on Sun 17 May 2026 kicks off at 12:30 UTC, with Sturm Graz hosting SK Rapid at home[^fact-1]. The fixture sits in the league context as a routine domestic meeting with implications determined more by form and squad availability than calendar drama in the supplied facts[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Sturm Graz arrive on a steady run: their last 10 read WDDDD (four wins, six draws, zero losses), yielding 1.80 points per game and an attacking/defensive profile of 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. SK Rapid's sequence is patchier at LLWLD in the last 10 (four wins, two draws, four losses), producing 1.40 points per game with 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model applies a large Elo advantage to the home side — a +286-point differential after home advantage is included — signalling a substantial quality gap in the ratings used for the projection[^fact-3]. That raw rating gap underpins the model verdict: Home 73%, Draw 18%, Away 9%, with the model reporting a high confidence margin of 55 percentage points over the runner-up forecast[^fact-2]. Taken together, form and ratings point the game toward a controlled home performance rather than a high-variance shootout: Sturm Graz combine steady scoring with a notably low concession rate, while Rapid concede more than they score across the recent sample[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Sturm Graz's attacking rhythm has a clear focal point in Otar Kiteishvili, who has three goals and one assist in his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.28 over that span[^fact-9]. That recent productivity helps explain why the home side's shot at control feels credible given the team's scoring rate[^fact-4][^fact-9]. SK Rapid's most notable current contributor is Ercan Kara, who has one goal and one assist in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.01[^fact-10]. The numbers supplied show Rapid's attacking returns are less frequent than Sturm Graz's in the recent window[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-5]. Availability alters the picture: Sturm Graz will be without Filip Rózga through injury; Rózga has logged 242 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes a piece of the minutes distribution documented in the facts[^fact-11]. SK Rapid are missing Matthias Seidl through suspension; Seidl had accumulated 810 minutes in the recent run and his absence represents the heavier single-minute loss listed for either side[^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies three clear market edges compared with the markets analysed (three markets compared)[^fact-13]. First, the Match Winner market: the model places a 74% probability on a home victory against a market price of 2.10 at 888Sport, producing an edge of 26.7 percentage points and labelled with high confidence[^fact-6][^fact-13]. Second, goals: the model favours Under 2.5 goals with a 63% probability versus a market price of 2.11 at Pinnacle, yielding a 15.1 percentage-point edge and high confidence[^fact-7][^fact-13]. That aligns with Sturm Graz's low conceded rate (0.90 per match) and Rapid's moderate scoring (1.10 per match) across the supplied samples[^fact-4][^fact-5][^7]. Third, the Both Teams to Score market: the model rates "No" at 59% against a market price of 2.25 at Betfair, an edge of 15.0 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-8][^fact-13]. The BTTS stance coheres with the team's defensive figures — Sturm Graz conceding less than one per match — and the model's overall lean toward a controlled home win[^fact-4][^fact-2]. Each value pick is explicitly backed by the model probability versus the specific odds source cited in the facts, and the declared confidence for all three edges is high in the provided data[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model's pulse is emphatic: a strong home lean (73% Home / 18% Draw / 9% Away) driven by a +286 Elo gap and a recent Sturm Graz profile that mixes consistent scoring with tight defending; the most coherent match outcomes are a controlled home win with a lower-scoring match and a reasonable chance that both sides do not score[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 12:30 UTC — Admiral Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 73% / Draw 18% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 55 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — STU vs SCR — Elo differential +286 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **STU recent form** — WDDDD last 10: 4-6-0 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SCR recent form** — LLWLD last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 74% vs market price 2.10 at 888Sport, edge 26.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 63% vs market price 2.11 at Pinnacle, edge 15.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 59% vs market price 2.25 at Betfair, edge 15.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **STU in-form player** — Otar Kiteishvili — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.28. [^fact-10]: **SCR in-form player** — Ercan Kara — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.01. [^fact-11]: **STU key absence** — Filip Rózga out (injury), 242 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **SCR key absence** — Matthias Seidl out (suspension), 810 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .