# Sturm Graz vs SK Rapid > Admiral Bundesliga · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 12:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/945) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Sturm Graz win:** 74% - **Draw:** 17% - **SK Rapid win:** 10% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Home | 2.10 | 888Sport | 74% | +26.7 pp | | totals | Under | 2.11 | Pinnacle | 63% | +15.1 pp | | btts | No | 2.25 | Betfair | 59% | +15.0 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home side emphatically favoured as model pins clear edges ## The stage This is a Sunday lunchtime fixture with kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 12:30 UTC in the Admiral Bundesliga[^fact-1]. The match pits Sturm Graz[^fact-3] against SK Rapid[^fact-3] and arrives with clear competitive leverage for the hosts in the model’s eyes[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form profiles point to a home team carrying steadier output. Sturm Graz have a last-10 sequence of WDDDD (4 wins, 6 draws, 0 losses) and are earning 1.80 points per game while scoring 1.80 and conceding 0.90 per match in that run[^fact-4]. SK Rapid’s last-10 reads LLWLD (4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses) with 1.40 points per game, 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo comparison — with home advantage applied — shows a sizeable edge of +286 points for Sturm Graz over SK Rapid[^fact-3]. Those three lenses together explain why the model lands heavily on the home side[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Sturm Graz’s attacking rhythm has a clear focal point in Otar Kiteishvili, who has 3 goals and 1 assist across his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.28 in that span[^fact-9]. SK Rapid’s most notable recent contributor is Ercan Kara, with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.01[^fact-10]. Absences matter here. Sturm Graz will be without Filip Rózga, who featured for 242 minutes in the recent run before his injury-enforced absence[^fact-11]. SK Rapid face the loss of Matthias Seidl through suspension, a player who accumulated 810 minutes in the lead-up to this game[^fact-12]. Those personnel voids remove familiar minutes for both sides and tilt the headache toward the visitors, given the broader team metrics already favour the home side[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Where the model sees value Markets were compared across three outcomes against the model[^fact-13], and the model flags multiple significant edges. - Match winner — Home: the model assigns a 74% probability to a Sturm Graz victory, versus a market price of 2.10 at 888Sport; that equates to an edge of 26.7 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-2][^fact-6]. - Goals O/U 2.5 — Under: the model gives Under 2.5 a 63% probability, compared with a market price of 2.11 at Pinnacle; the edge is 15.1 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. - Both Teams to Score — No: the model assigns a 59% probability to BTTS = No, versus a market price of 2.25 at Betfair; the edge here is 15.0 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. These three value signals align with the underlying match signals: Sturm Graz’s defence has conceded 0.90 goals per match in the recent run[^fact-4], while SK Rapid concede 1.40 per match in theirs[^fact-5], supporting the model’s tilt toward a low-scoring affair[^fact-7][^fact-8]. The model’s conviction in the home win is also consistent with the Elo gap[^fact-3] and the comparative points-per-game figures[^fact-4][^fact-5]. All market comparisons above were part of the set of three markets analysed[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is clear: a strong probability on a home win (74%) backed by an Elo advantage of +286 and cleaner defensive numbers for the home side, coupled with value signals on under 2.5 goals and BTTS = No[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-7][^fact-8]. Key absences — Filip Rózga for Sturm Graz and Matthias Seidl for SK Rapid — alter minutes but do not erase the model’s sizable home edge[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 12:30 UTC — Admiral Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 74% / Draw 17% / Away 10% (source: model; confidence high, 57 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — STU vs SCR — Elo differential +286 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **STU recent form** — WDDDD last 10: 4-6-0 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SCR recent form** — LLWLD last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 74% vs market price 2.10 at 888Sport, edge 26.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 63% vs market price 2.11 at Pinnacle, edge 15.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 59% vs market price 2.25 at Betfair, edge 15.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **STU in-form player** — Otar Kiteishvili — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.28. [^fact-10]: **SCR in-form player** — Ercan Kara — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.01. [^fact-11]: **STU key absence** — Filip Rózga out (injury), 242 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **SCR key absence** — Matthias Seidl out (suspension), 810 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .