# St. Mirren vs Dundee United > Premiership · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/947) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** St. Mirren 1–1 Dundee United ## Model verdict - **St. Mirren win:** 61% - **Draw:** 21% - **Dundee United win:** 18% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Tight, low-scoring contest favours draw and under 2.5 goals ## The stage This fixture is scheduled for Sun 17 May 2026, 13:00 UTC in the Premiership[^fact-1]. St. Mirren host Dundee United, which the model rates as a contest most likely to finish level rather than produce an away shock[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form gives a mixed picture. St. Mirren have scraped 1.00 points per game across their last ten, recorded as WLLLL (3-1-6) with an average of 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Dundee United arrive marginally sharper on raw form with 1.40 points per game from a DLLWW (4-2-4) sequence and averages of 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Elo numbers slightly favour the hosts once home advantage is applied: St. Mirren hold a +33-point Elo differential over Dundee United[^fact-3]. Taken together with the recent form lines, this positions the fixture as narrowly tilted to the home side but functionally poised for a low-margin game rather than a goal-laden shootout[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel St. Mirren’s most notable in-form attacking reference is Killian Phillips, who has registered 1 goal and 0 assists in his last five appearances, with an average rating of 6.94 over that sample[^fact-9]. On the other flank of momentum, Dundee United’s Will Ferry boasts 3 goals and 2 assists in his last five, carrying an average rating of 8.09 across those matches[^fact-10]. Availability issues are straightforward: St. Mirren will be missing Ryan Mullen through injury; his recent involvement was 58 minutes in his latest run[^fact-11]. Dundee United are without L. Stephenson due to injury; the player had accumulated 443 minutes in recent appearances prior to this absence[^fact-12]. These absences are the clearest personnel headlines the model incorporates into its projections[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market edges stand out when comparing the model to market prices across the three markets analysed[^fact-13]. First, the model places a strong probability on Under 2.5 goals at 70%, while the market price at Unibet sits at 2.14, generating an edge of 23.0 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, the model assigns a 45% chance to a Draw in Match Winner versus a market price of 3.65 at Dafabet, producing an 18.0-percentage-point edge (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Third, the model favours ‘No’ on Both Teams to Score at 61% against a market price of 2.30 at Unibet, yielding a 17.4-percentage-point edge (high confidence)[^fact-8]. Each of these edges converges on the same thematic expectation: a low-scoring game with a strong probability of a level scoreline[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. The market comparison covers three markets in total, which is the scope used to flag these discrepancies[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model’s primary lean is towards a draw, with a 43% match-winner probability and a mid confidence level reflecting a 10-percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome; home win and away win probabilities are 33% and 24% respectively[^fact-2]. Complementary signals — a +33 Elo edge for the hosts, modest scoring averages for both sides, and three high-confidence market edges — all point to a tight, low-scoring affair where a draw and Under 2.5 goals are the dominant expectations[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 13:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 33% / Draw 43% / Away 24% (source: model; confidence mid, 10 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — STM vs DUD — Elo differential +33 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **STM recent form** — WLLLL last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **DUD recent form** — DLLWW last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 70% vs market price 2.14 at Unibet, edge 23.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Draw in Match Winner — model 45% vs market price 3.65 at Dafabet, edge 18.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 61% vs market price 2.30 at Unibet, edge 17.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **STM in-form player** — Killian Phillips — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.94. [^fact-10]: **DUD in-form player** — Will Ferry — 3 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 8.09. [^fact-11]: **STM key absence** — Ryan Mullen out (injury), 58 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **DUD key absence** — L. Stephenson out (injury), 443 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .