# St. Mirren vs Dundee United > Premiership · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/947) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **St. Mirren win:** 31% - **Draw:** 46% - **Dundee United win:** 23% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 2.14 | Unibet | 70% | +23.0 pp | | h2h | Draw | 3.65 | Dafabet | 45% | +18.0 pp | | btts | No | 2.30 | Unibet | 61% | +17.4 pp | | h2h | Home | 2.25 | bet365 | 62% | +17.1 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Tight, low-scoring draw looks likeliest outcome ## The stage This is a straight Premiership kick-off at 13:00 UTC on Sun 17 May 2026, a fixture where neither side carries a numbers-backed heavy favourite tag[^fact-1]. The model assigns the single most likely result to the draw, with a 46% probability that neither side takes all three points[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum On raw recent form, St. Mirren have struggled: WLLLL across their last 10 matches, a 3-1-6 W-D-L split, yielding 1.00 points per game and averaging 0.80 goals scored while conceding 1.20 per match[^fact-4]. Dundee United’s recent sequence reads DLLWW, a 4-2-4 split, producing 1.40 points per game and an average of 1.40 goals scored against 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Elo gives St. Mirren a small edge once home advantage is applied, a +33 point differential in the hosts’ favour[^fact-3]. Taken together, form slightly favours Dundee United but the model’s probabilistic framework still prefers a stalemate[^fact-2]. ## Personnel St. Mirren’s most-noted in-form contributor is Killian Phillips, who has 1 goal and 0 assists in his last five appearances and an average match rating of 6.94 over that span[^fact-9]. The hosts are without Ryan Mullen through injury; Mullen had logged 58 minutes in his recent run before the absence was noted[^fact-11]. Dundee United’s eye-catcher is Will Ferry, a substantive attacking influence with 3 goals and 2 assists across his last five outings and an average rating of 8.09[^fact-10]. United will also be missing L. Stephenson to injury; Stephenson had accumulated 443 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence[^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market inefficiencies stand out versus the model. First, the under 2.5 goals market is heavily favoured by the model at 70% probability, while the available market price sits at 2.14 at Unibet; that represents a 23.0 percentage-point edge to the model and a high-confidence divergence[^fact-6]. Second, the match-winner market shows a large model-on-market gap for the draw: the model puts the draw at 45% while Dafabet offers 3.65, an 18.0 percentage-point edge to the model and again flagged with high confidence[^fact-7]. Third, the model projects No for Both Teams to Score at 61%, whereas the market price at Unibet is 2.30, yielding a 17.4 percentage-point model edge with high confidence[^fact-8]. These three markets were compared against the model as part of the market analysis (3 market(s) compared)[^fact-13]. All three signals point toward a lower-scoring game and a significant chance that one side fails to score. ## Verdict The model’s central lean is the draw at 46%, with the home win and away win sitting at 31% and 23% respectively — a distribution that underlines the model’s caution and a 15 percentage-point gap to the runner-up probability, signalling high internal confidence in that ranking[^fact-2]. Converging evidence from Elo, recent form and player availability suggests a tight, low-scoring affair rather than an open, goal-laden contest: the Elo edge nudges St. Mirren forward at home[^fact-3], but ordinary attacking outputs and absences on both sides limit the fixture’s goal potential[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-11][^fact-12]. The strongest model-versus-market edges are clustered around low-scoring outcomes and a draw result[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 13:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 31% / Draw 46% / Away 23% (source: model; confidence high, 15 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — STM vs DUD — Elo differential +33 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **STM recent form** — WLLLL last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **DUD recent form** — DLLWW last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 70% vs market price 2.14 at Unibet, edge 23.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Draw in Match Winner — model 45% vs market price 3.65 at Dafabet, edge 18.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 61% vs market price 2.30 at Unibet, edge 17.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **STM in-form player** — Killian Phillips — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.94. [^fact-10]: **DUD in-form player** — Will Ferry — 3 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 8.09. [^fact-11]: **STM key absence** — Ryan Mullen out (injury), 58 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **DUD key absence** — L. Stephenson out (injury), 443 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .