# Livingston vs Kilmarnock > Premiership · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/948) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Livingston win:** 17% - **Draw:** 53% - **Kilmarnock win:** 30% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Draw | 3.55 | 10Bet | 49% | +20.5 pp | | h2h | Home | 2.95 | Pinnacle | 44% | +9.9 pp | | totals | Under | 2.16 | Unibet | 54% | +8.1 pp | | totals | Over | 1.73 | Betfair | 65% | +7.5 pp | | btts | No | 2.35 | Unibet | 50% | +7.2 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw edges and low-scoring lean frame a nervy midday contest ## The stage This is a Premiership fixture kicking off at Sun 17 May 2026, 13:00 UTC; the line on the match is being set against the closing weeks of the domestic season[^fact-1]. No venue detail is supplied in the source facts, so focus remains on the kickoff timing and competition context[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Kilmarnock arrive with the clearer momentum over the last 10 league outings: their sequence reads WWWLD, a 5-2-3 W-D-L split and 1.70 points per game, with 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Livingston’s last 10 are more jittery: DLDWL, a 1-6-3 W-D-L split and 0.90 points per game, averaging 1.10 goals for and 1.50 against[^fact-4]. The Elo comparison — with home advantage already applied — gives Kilmarnock a 50-point edge over Livingston[^fact-3]. Those metrics land a clear ranking: Kilmarnock are the hotter side on form and Elo, while Livingston present a weaker recent profile in both results and goal differential[^fact-5][^fact-4][^fact-3]. That said, the model’s match verdict is not a unilateral away pick: it sits 17% home, 53% draw, 30% away, with a high-confidence 23 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. The draw probability dominates the model’s view despite Kilmarnock’s superior recent form and Elo edge[^fact-2][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Livingston’s most notable in-form contributor in the supplied data is Lewis Smith: 2 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances, carrying an average rating of 7.36 across those games[^fact-9]. For Kilmarnock, Joe Hugill brings finishing form — 4 goals in his last five outings with an average match rating of 7.14[^fact-10]. Kilmarnock also have a key absence in the supplied facts: Matty Kennedy is out injured, which removes a named option from their available personnel pool[^fact-11]. No further injury list or starting-X detail is provided, so conclusions must be limited to the supplied in-form profiles and the single recorded absence[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model flags multiple market inefficiencies across three analysed markets[^fact-12]. First, the single strongest edge is the Draw in Match Winner: the model assigns a 49% probability while the market price at 10Bet is 3.55, yielding an edge of 20.5 percentage points and high confidence in that discrepancy[^fact-6]. Second, the model shows upside on Home in Match Winner: a 44% model probability versus a Pinnacle market price of 2.95, representing a 9.9 percentage-point edge with high confidence[^fact-7]. Third, goal expectation skews to the low side — Under 2.5 is favoured by the model at 54% versus a 2.16 market price at Unibet, an 8.1 percentage-point edge with high confidence[^fact-8]. All three value calls are explicitly tagged high confidence in the supplied facts and come from the three markets that were compared against the model[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-12]. The model’s internal probabilities tilt toward a draw outcome even as team form and Elo give Kilmarnock the nominal edge; that tension explains why the draw line looks especially soft relative to market pricing[^fact-2][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Verdict The model leans to parity: a draw is the single most likely outcome at 53% according to the model’s verdict, despite Kilmarnock’s superior recent form and a 50-point Elo advantage[^fact-2][^fact-5][^fact-3]. Supporting signals include a strong model probability for Under 2.5 goals and the model’s notable pricing edges across three markets, most sharply on the draw priced at 3.55 by 10Bet[^fact-8][^fact-6][^fact-12]. The narrative is clear — Kilmarnock are the form side, Livingston carry an in-form attacker in Lewis Smith, and the model expects a tight game where the draw and fewer goals are more probable than the market currently reflects[^fact-5][^fact-9][^fact-8][^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 13:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 17% / Draw 53% / Away 30% (source: model; confidence high, 23 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LIV vs KIL — Elo differential -50 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LIV recent form** — DLDWL last 10: 1-6-3 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **KIL recent form** — WWWLD last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 49% vs market price 3.55 at 10Bet, edge 20.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 44% vs market price 2.95 at Pinnacle, edge 9.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.16 at Unibet, edge 8.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **LIV in-form player** — Lewis Smith — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.36. [^fact-10]: **KIL in-form player** — Joe Hugill — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.14. [^fact-11]: **KIL key absence** — Matty Kennedy  out (injury). [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .