# Livingston vs Kilmarnock > Premiership · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/948) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Livingston 1–4 Kilmarnock ## Model verdict - **Livingston win:** 16% - **Draw:** 54% - **Kilmarnock win:** 31% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw market and low-goals projection dominate model thinking ## The stage Kickoff is at 13:00 UTC on Sun 17 May 2026 in the Premiership[^fact-1]. The fixture pits a home side on a modest run against a visiting team with clearer recent momentum, and the model assigns a majority probability to a draw scenario[^fact-2]. Three markets were analysed against the model for this preview[^fact-12]. ## Form & momentum Livingston arrive with a ten-match sequence reading DLDWL, totalling 1-6-3 (W-D-L) and averaging 0.90 points per game; their attacking output stands at 1.10 goals per match while they concede 1.50[^fact-4]. Kilmarnock’s last ten read WWWLD, a 5-2-3 split with 1.70 points per game; they are scoring 1.60 and conceding 1.30 on average[^fact-5]. The Elo comparison, already adjusted for home advantage, gives Kilmarnock the edge: Livingston sit 50 Elo points behind Kilmarnock[^fact-3]. The model’s match probabilities reinforce that gap but also highlight a heavy draw lean: Home 16% / Draw 54% / Away 31% and the model reports high confidence with a 23 percentage-point gap to the runner-up probability[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Livingston’s most noticeable recent form player is Lewis Smith — two goals and one assist in his last five appearances, carrying an average rating of 7.36 over that span[^fact-9]. Kilmarnock’s attacking form is concentrated around Joe Hugill, who has hit four goals in his last five appearances and carries a 7.14 average rating in that window[^fact-10]. On absences, Kilmarnock will be without Matty Kennedy through injury, a named unavailability that alters selection options for the visitors[^fact-11]. Those are the in-form names and the single flagged absence from the supplied facts; no other personnel claims are made here because they are not provided. ## Where the model sees value Three market edges stand out when the model is compared to prices. First, the model’s probability for a draw in the Match Winner market is 49% versus a market price implying an alternative probability at 3.55 with 10Bet, producing a 20.5 percentage-point edge according to the model’s calculation (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, despite the Elo deficit and Livingston’s weaker recent numbers, the model still assigns 44% to Home in the Match Winner market versus a Pinnacle price of 2.95, amounting to a 9.9 percentage-point edge (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Third, the model prefers Under 2.5 goals with a 54% probability while the Unibet market priced the alternative at 2.16, leaving an 8.1 percentage-point edge (high confidence)[^fact-8]. All three edges are reported as high confidence and come from the three markets analysed[^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is conservative and draw-centric: a strong single-line probability for a draw (54%) sits alongside a clear under-2.5 preference (54%), while Kilmarnock retains an Elo and form edge that explains the away probability (31%) and thin home chance (16%)[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4][^fact-8]. The market contains disconnects on three greens for model value — draw, home and under 2.5 — and the most pronounced divergence is the model’s 49% draw call against the 3.55 priced market point[^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 13:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 16% / Draw 54% / Away 31% (source: model; confidence high, 23 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LIV vs KIL — Elo differential -50 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LIV recent form** — DLDWL last 10: 1-6-3 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **KIL recent form** — WWWLD last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 49% vs market price 3.55 at 10Bet, edge 20.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 44% vs market price 2.95 at Pinnacle, edge 9.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.16 at Unibet, edge 8.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **LIV in-form player** — Lewis Smith — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.36. [^fact-10]: **KIL in-form player** — Joe Hugill — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.14. [^fact-11]: **KIL key absence** — Matty Kennedy  out (injury). [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .