# DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC > 2. Bundesliga · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/951) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** DSC Arminia Bielefeld 6–1 Hertha BSC ## Model verdict - **DSC Arminia Bielefeld win:** 27% - **Draw:** 21% - **Hertha BSC win:** 52% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Away side tipped by the model as clear match favourite ## The stage A late‑season 2. Bundesliga fixture kicks off Sun 17 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC, with home advantage nominally to Bielefeld[^fact-1]. The match sits inside a campaign context the model reads decisively: an away lean that the market and punters will need to reckon with[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences point in opposite directions. Bielefeld arrive with a LDWDL string in their last 10 and a 2-3-5 W‑D‑L split across that sample, managing 0.90 points per game, scoring 1.10 and conceding 1.80 on average[^fact-4]. Hertha show the hotter profile: WLLDL in their last 10 with a 5-2-3 W‑D‑L split across that window, earning 1.70 points per game while scoring 1.40 and conceding 1.00[^fact-5]. The Elo map also favours the visitors after adjusting for home advantage: Bielefeld sit 26 Elo points behind Hertha when the home boost is applied[^fact-3]. That gap is consistent with the model’s match probabilities, which assign the away side a 52% chance against a 27% probability for the hosts and a 21% chance of a draw; the model reports high confidence with a 25 percentage‑point margin to the runner‑up outcome[^fact-2]. Put simply: recent form and Elo both skew to the traveller, while Bielefeld’s numbers suggest a side vulnerable to conceding more than they create[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Two in‑form players to watch: Tim Handwerker has produced 1 goal and 2 assists in his last four appearances with an average rating of 7.29[^fact-9]; Fabian Reese has 1 goal and 1 assist across his last five outings with an average rating of 7.25[^fact-10]. Those output lines identify players carrying current attacking form for each team[^fact-9][^fact-10]. Availability issues matter. Bielefeld will be missing Mael Corboz to suspension; Corboz accounted for 849 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-11]. Hertha will be without Márton Dárdai due to injury; Dárdai logged 661 minutes in the same recent stretch[^fact-12]. Both absences remove significant minutes from their respective squads and should influence midfield and defensive structure decisions[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Markets were compared across three offerings against the model’s probabilities[^fact-13]. The clearest discrepancy is the match winner market: the model gives the away side a 52% probability while the market price at Unibet implies a much lower chance via odds of 4.50, creating an edge of 29.7 percentage points in favour of the away win (high confidence)[^fact-6]. On totals, the model favours Under 2.5 goals at 56% versus a market priced at 3.10 on bet365, yielding a 23.7 percentage‑point edge (high confidence)[^fact-7]. That aligns with Hertha’s tighter goals‑conceded figure and Bielefeld’s modest goals‑scored rate in recent matches[^fact-5][^fact-4]. A complementary angle is Both Teams to Score: the model assigns a 49% probability to "No" while the market at 1xbet prices the opposite at 2.90, giving a 14.8 percentage‑point edge for the No selection (high confidence)[^fact-8]. The BTTS signal dovetails with the Under 2.5 lean, and both are coherently grounded in the recent defensive and attacking numbers[^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The quantitative read is straightforward: a clear model lean to the away side (52%) with high confidence and supporting edges in lower‑scoring markets[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7]. Elo, form and recent defensive returns all point toward a match that favours the traveller and the probability of a tight scoreline[^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — 2. Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 27% / Draw 21% / Away 52% (source: model; confidence high, 25 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BIE vs BCS — Elo differential -26 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BIE recent form** — LDWDL last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **BCS recent form** — WLLDL last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 52% vs market price 4.50 at Unibet, edge 29.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 56% vs market price 3.10 at bet365, edge 23.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 49% vs market price 2.90 at 1xbet, edge 14.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **BIE in-form player** — Tim Handwerker — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.29. [^fact-10]: **BCS in-form player** — Fabian Reese — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.25. [^fact-11]: **BIE key absence** — Mael Corboz out (suspension), 849 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **BCS key absence** — Márton Dárdai out (injury), 661 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .