# Darmstadt 98 vs Paderborn > 2. Bundesliga · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/952) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Darmstadt 98 0–2 Paderborn ## Model verdict - **Darmstadt 98 win:** 32% - **Draw:** 27% - **Paderborn win:** 41% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Tight game expected as away side holds slight statistical edge ## The stage A late-May 2. Bundesliga fixture kicks off Sun 17 May 2026, 13:30 UTC[^fact-1]. The timing compresses a season of small margins into a single Sunday kick, with both sides still collecting form points that matter in the table run-in[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model gives the away side the advantage: Away 41%, Home 32%, Draw 27%[^fact-2]. The margin between favourite and runner-up sits at a mid confidence level with a 9 percentage-point gap to the runner-up in the model's output[^fact-2]. On Elo, the home team carries a slim edge after applying home advantage: +8 Elo points[^fact-3]. Recent form tells a tighter story. The home side’s 10-match sequence reads DLDLL (one win, four draws, five losses), translating to 0.70 points per game with 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visitors have been steadier: DLLDW (four wins, four draws, two losses) for 1.60 points per game and a goal profile of 1.90 scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those underlying rates explain why the model leans to the away team despite the slim Elo advantage for the hosts[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Isac Lidberg is the most notable in-form figure for the home side, producing three goals and one assist across his last four appearances with an average match rating of 7.07[^fact-9]. For the visitors, Filip Bilbija arrives on superior attacking form — five goals in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.32[^fact-10]. Availability issues bite both teams. The hosts will be without Patric Pfeiffer due to suspension; he logged 545 minutes in the recent run before missing out[^fact-11]. The visitors are missing Raphael Obermair through injury; Obermair contributed 568 minutes during the same recent stretch[^fact-12]. The absences remove continuity minutes on both sides and will influence selection and defensive stability for teams that otherwise post nearly identical goals conceded rates in recent matches[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market contrasts stand out when the model is pitted against currently available odds — three markets were analysed in total[^fact-13]. - Under 2.5 goals: the model assigns 54% probability versus a market price implying a much lower probability at Betfair odds of 3.25, producing an edge of 23.6 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. - Both Teams to Score — No: the model gives a 50% probability against the market price shown by Betfair at 3.25, producing an edge of 19.0 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. - Match winner — Home: the model places 44% on the home win whereas Cashpoint offers home odds at 3.54, generating an edge of 15.6 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. Taken together, the model is signalling a lower-scoring game with a real chance one side keeps a clean sheet, even while still showing a measurable probability for a home victory relative to market prices[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model’s lean favours the visitors overall (Away 41% vs Home 32% vs Draw 27%), but the contest projects tight margins: a small Elo edge sits with the hosts (+8 after home adjustment) even as form and goal rates tilt toward the away side[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. The clearest model signals are for a low-scoring game and a decent chance of one side not conceding, outcomes that offer the largest statistical edges versus the market[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — 2. Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 32% / Draw 27% / Away 41% (source: model; confidence mid, 9 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SVD vs PAD — Elo differential +8 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SVD recent form** — DLDLL last 10: 1-4-5 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **PAD recent form** — DLLDW last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.25 at Betfair, edge 23.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 50% vs market price 3.25 at Betfair, edge 19.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Home in Match Winner — model 44% vs market price 3.54 at Cashpoint, edge 15.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **SVD in-form player** — Isac Lidberg — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.07. [^fact-10]: **PAD in-form player** — Filip Bilbija — 5 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.32. [^fact-11]: **SVD key absence** — Patric Pfeiffer out (suspension), 545 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **PAD key absence** — Raphael Obermair out (injury), 568 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .