# Schalke 04 vs Eintracht Braunschweig > 2. Bundesliga · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/953) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Schalke 04 1–0 Eintracht Braunschweig ## Model verdict - **Schalke 04 win:** 81% - **Draw:** 12% - **Eintracht Braunschweig win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Schalke heavy favourites as model spots big quality gap ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sun 17 May 2026, 13:30 UTC in the 2. Bundesliga[^fact-1]. This fixture sits squarely in the closing stretch where short-term form and squad availability carry oversized influence on outcomes[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Schalke come into the game with the stronger recent run: their last-10 line reads LWWWW and the underlying numbers show 2.10 points per game, 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Braunschweig offer a more mixed picture, with WLWDL across their last 10, 1.20 points per game, 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model applies a substantial Elo edge to Schalke — an advantage of +289 points after home adjustment — signalling a marked quality gap between the sides[^fact-3]. That edge is reflected in the model’s win probability: Home 81% / Draw 12% / Away 7% (model; confidence high, 69 pp gap to runner-up)[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Schalke’s most conspicuous in-form contributor listed by the model is Dejan Ljubicic, who has 2 goals and 3 assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.51 in that spell[^fact-9]. For Braunschweig, Florian Flick is the in-form player highlighted, with 1 goal, 2 assists in his last five and an average rating of 6.83[^fact-10]. Availability issues matter: Nikola Katic is absent for Schalke due to injury and has 270 minutes in the recent run when fit[^fact-11]. Braunschweig are missing Aaron Opoku through injury; Opoku accounts for 298 minutes in the recent sample when available[^fact-12]. Those absences remove continuity in each side’s defensive and attacking patterns, emphasising the value of depth in the squad list already reflected in the model’s margin[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were compared against the model[^fact-13]. The clearest single-market edge is Home in Match Winner: the model prices the home win at 78% versus the Betfair market price of 1.91, translating to an edge of 25.3 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. On goal patterns, the model identifies a tilt toward fewer goals: Under 2.5 goals is assessed at 53% by the model versus a market price of 2.30, an edge of 9.1 pp (high confidence)[^fact-8]. This dovetails with the secondary Both Teams to Score view: the model gives “No” 53% probability versus the Betfair market price of 2.38, an edge of 10.8 pp (high confidence)[^fact-7]. All three edges are reported against markets analysed by the model that total three comparisons[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model leans heavily toward a Schalke victory, driven by a +289 Elo differential with home advantage applied and an 81% model win probability (confidence gap to the runner-up 69 percentage points), while market prices leave notable edges on the home win, under 2.5 goals and no on both teams to score[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-8][^fact-7][^fact-13]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — 2. Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 81% / Draw 12% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 69 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — S04 vs EBR — Elo differential +289 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **S04 recent form** — LWWWW last 10: 6-3-1 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **EBR recent form** — WLWDL last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 78% vs market price 1.91 at Betfair, edge 25.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 53% vs market price 2.38 at Betfair, edge 10.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 53% vs market price 2.30 at Betfair, edge 9.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **S04 in-form player** — Dejan Ljubicic — 2 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.51. [^fact-10]: **EBR in-form player** — Florian Flick — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.83. [^fact-11]: **S04 key absence** — Nikola Katic out (injury), 270 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **EBR key absence** — Aaron Opoku out (injury), 298 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .