# SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf > 2. Bundesliga · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/957) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf ## Model verdict - **SpVgg Greuther Fürth win:** 23% - **Draw:** 40% - **Fortuna Düsseldorf win:** 37% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Away edge, draw risk and low‑scoring lean from model[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-8] ## The stage Kickoff is Sun 17 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC in the 2. Bundesliga[^fact-1]. This is a late‑season fixture with both sides carrying metrics that suggest a tight outcome rather than a runaway result[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum The model gives the fixture a split profile: Home 23% / Draw 40% / Away 37%, and it flags low confidence — a 3 percentage‑point gap to the runner‑up outcome[^fact-2]. Elo, with home advantage applied, still favours the home side by +47 points[^fact-3], suggesting a nontrivial underlying quality edge for the hosts despite the model's spread of outcomes[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Recent form paints a picture of two teams producing similar returns. Greuther Fürth have a last‑10 sequence of LDLWD (3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses), averaging 1.20 points per game, scoring 1.20 and conceding 1.40 per match[^fact-4]. Fortuna Düsseldorf sit on WLWLL (4 wins, 0 draws, 6 losses) over ten, also at 1.20 points per game, with 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match[^fact-5]. That parity in points per game and attacking output helps explain the model's relatively high draw probability[^fact-2][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Greuther Fürth's in‑form threat is Noel Futkeu — six goals and no assists in his last five appearances, with an average rating of 7.45 across that run[^fact-9]. His recent finishing form is a clear attacking asset for the hosts[^fact-9]. Fürth will be missing Lukas Reich through injury; Reich logged 194 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-11]. Fortuna Düsseldorf lose their own in‑form forward: Cedric Itten has four goals and one assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.54, but he is suspended and therefore absent after contributing 778 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10][^fact-12]. Losing Itten removes Düsseldorf's primary recent source of goals while Fürth manage without Reich, shifting matchups in the final third without changing the broader model outlook[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market discrepancies stand out after comparison with three markets analysed against the model[^fact-13]. - Away in Match Winner: the model prices the away win at 60% while Pinnacle offers market odds equivalent to 2.63; that is an edge of 21.9 percentage points flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. - Draw in Match Winner: the model assigns the draw a 47% probability while Betfair's 3.90 implies a materially lower market probability; the model reports a 21.6 percentage‑point edge here with high confidence[^fact-7]. - Under in Goals O/U 2.5: the model gives under 2.5 goals a 57% chance while Betfair prices the line at 2.55; the model records a 17.4 percentage‑point edge and labels this pick high confidence[^fact-8]. Those three edges align with the on‑paper balance: similar points per game and modest attacking returns for both sides, an away‑side market underpricing despite the home Elo edge, and notable absences in attack[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model leans narrowly toward the away side while keeping the draw as the single most likely result (Draw 40% / Away 37% / Home 23%) and flags low overall confidence in the primary ranking[^fact-2]. Market comparisons highlight three high‑confidence value spots — away match winner, draw, and under 2.5 goals — that reflect the underlying parity in recent form, the removal of Fortuna's top recent scorer, and an expectation of a lower‑scoring contest[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-10][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — 2. Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 23% / Draw 40% / Away 37% (source: model; confidence low, 3 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — GRF vs DU — Elo differential +47 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **GRF recent form** — LDLWD last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **DU recent form** — WLWLL last 10: 4-0-6 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 60% vs market price 2.63 at Pinnacle, edge 21.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Draw in Match Winner — model 47% vs market price 3.90 at Betfair, edge 21.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 57% vs market price 2.55 at Betfair, edge 17.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **GRF in-form player** — Noel Futkeu — 6 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.45. [^fact-10]: **DU in-form player** — Cedric Itten — 4 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.54. [^fact-11]: **GRF key absence** — Lukas Reich out (injury), 194 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **DU key absence** — Cedric Itten out (suspension), 778 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .