# Mjällby vs Häcken > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 14:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/964) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Mjällby 0–1 Häcken ## Model verdict - **Mjällby win:** 69% - **Draw:** 23% - **Häcken win:** 8% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy home-edge backed by model and Elo advantage ## The stage Allsvenskan action arrives with kickoff on Sun 17 May 2026, 14:30 UTC[^fact-1]. The fixture sits in the regular-season calendar; the supplied facts do not specify a stadium or broader table context, so attention falls onto match-level signals[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The quantitative picture is strongly tilted toward the home side. The model gives a clear Home probability of 69% against a Draw at 23% and an Away chance of 8%[^fact-2]. That confidence gap to the runner-up is large, explicitly stated as 46 percentage points in the model's output[^fact-2]. The Elo comparison amplifies the gap: an applied home advantage produces an Elo differential of +299 points in favour of the home team[^fact-3]. Recent-trend data underlines the same narrative. The home side carries a string of results labelled WWWDW over their last 10 games — a 7-1-2 record (W-D-L), delivering 2.20 points per game and an attacking return of 2.00 goals while conceding 0.90 per match[^fact-4]. The visitors are steadier but less convincing: WDDDW across their last 10 fixtures, a 3-6-1 record (W-D-L), 1.50 points per game, 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those per-game differentials align with the model and Elo signals: the home side is hotter both in raw outcomes and in goal differential[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Two in-form players stand out in the supplied facts. Jacob Bergström has four goals and zero assists across his last five appearances, posting an average rating of 7.53 in that span[^fact-9]. Adrian Svanbäck brings a different profile for the visitors: one goal and three assists in his last five appearances, with an average rating of 6.91[^fact-10]. These are the only named player form snapshots in the dataset; lists of absences or broader squad notes are not supplied in the facts provided[^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model[^fact-11], and they point to consistent edges in markets that lean toward goals and a home win. - Match Winner — Home: the model rates the home win at 72% versus a market price implying approximately 47.6% (evinced by the offered price 2.10 at bet365), producing an edge of 24.3 percentage points, flagged by the model as high confidence[^fact-6]. - Goals O/U 2.5 — Over: the model assigns a 68% probability to over 2.5 goals, while the market odds at Unibet (1.76) imply a lower probability; the model's edge here is 11.4 percentage points and also carries high confidence[^fact-7]. - Goals O/U 2.5 — Under: interestingly, the model still assigns a non-trivial 54% probability to under 2.5 goals against a market price of 2.15 at Betfair that implies a different market view; this specific edge is smaller at 7.9 percentage points and the model notes it with mid confidence[^fact-8]. Those three market comparisons are the entire set of quantified market edges supplied for this fixture[^fact-11]. The model's primary conviction is a home victory, and the goal-line markets show a split signal: a strong tilt toward more goals in one comparison and a narrower tilt toward fewer goals in another, which reflects contrasting market pricing across different bookmakers[^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model's lean is unambiguous: a home favourite with a 69% chance, backed by a +299 Elo edge and stronger recent form metrics for goals scored and defensive solidity[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. The available market comparisons underline value on the home win and give conflicting but actionable signals around the 2.5-goal line, with the clearest quantitative conviction on a home victory[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 14:30 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 69% / Draw 23% / Away 8% (source: model; confidence high, 46 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Mjällby vs HAC — Elo differential +299 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Mjällby recent form** — WWWDW last 10: 7-1-2 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 2.00 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HAC recent form** — WDDDW last 10: 3-6-1 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 72% vs market price 2.10 at bet365, edge 24.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 68% vs market price 1.76 at Unibet, edge 11.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.15 at Betfair, edge 7.9 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **Mjällby in-form player** — Jacob Bergström — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.53. [^fact-10]: **HAC in-form player** — Adrian Svanbäck — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.91. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .