# St. Gallen vs Thun > Super League · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 14:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/967) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** St. Gallen 1–1 Thun ## Model verdict - **St. Gallen win:** 51% - **Draw:** 17% - **Thun win:** 32% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### St. Gallen slight favourites, model backs a low-scoring affair ## The stage This is a Super League fixture kicking off on Sun 17 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC, with St. Gallen hosting Thun in what reads as a routine late-season match in the domestic campaign[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum St. Gallen head into the game with form that reads more steady than spectacular: five wins, four draws and one loss in their last ten matches (5-4-1), averaging 1.90 points per game and scoring 1.80 while conceding 1.30 goals per match[^fact-4]. Thun, by contrast, arrive on a noticeably weaker run — only three wins, one draw and six defeats in their last ten (3-1-6), managing 1.00 point per game and a goals profile of 1.70 scored and 2.20 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model applies a home advantage and still gives St. Gallen an Elo edge of +150 points over Thun, underlining a clear quality gap between the sides[^fact-3]. That quality gap shows up in the probabilistic assessment: the model favours the home side at 51%, with the draw at 17% and the away win at 32% — a lean towards St. Gallen but not an overwhelming slam dunk[^fact-2]. ## Personnel St. Gallen’s most in-form attacking outlet in recent matches has been Aliou Baldé, who has netted three goals in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.32 across that run[^fact-9]. Thun’s primary form player is Elmin Rastoder, who has three goals and one assist in his last four outings with an average rating of 7.31 in that spell[^fact-10]. On the injury front, St. Gallen will be without Jozo Stanic, who has accounted for 659 minutes in the recent run and is listed out injured[^fact-11]. Thun are missing Michael Heule, who contributed 720 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-12]. Those absences strip both sides of regular minutes from their recent rotations, a factor worth noting for defensive shape and substitutions planning given the minutes lost from the XI blocks[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model[^fact-13]. 1) Under 2.5 goals: the model assigns a 54% probability to Under 2.5, while the market on Betfair prices the outcome at 3.25, producing a model-market edge of 23.6 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. 2) Both Teams to Score — No: the model gives a 50% probability to both teams not scoring, against a Betfair market price of 3.10, yielding an edge of 17.5 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. 3) Match winner — Away: the model still allocates 40% probability to an away win despite the overall home lean, versus a 10Bet market price of 3.85 for the away side, producing an edge of 14.4 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. The trio of edges points in two complementary directions: the match is modelled as tighter and lower-scoring than price implies, with a meaningful chance that one side fails to score; concurrently, the market overprices a Thun upset relative to the model view even though an away result is not dismissed by the model[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s baseline lean is toward the home side at 51% while still respecting a sizeable away probability of 32%, backed by an Elo cushion of +150 for St. Gallen with home applied[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Combine the form lines, the in-form creators on both teams, and the injury absences, and the clearest signal is for a low-scoring, tight contest where St. Gallen are marginal favourites but Thun retain a live underdog chance[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 14:30 UTC — Super League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 51% / Draw 17% / Away 32% (source: model; confidence high, 19 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — St. Gallen vs THU — Elo differential +150 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **St. Gallen recent form** — WWLWD last 10: 5-4-1 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **THU recent form** — LLLLW last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 2.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.25 at Betfair, edge 23.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 50% vs market price 3.10 at Betfair, edge 17.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Away in Match Winner — model 40% vs market price 3.85 at 10Bet, edge 14.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **St. Gallen in-form player** — Aliou Baldé — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.32. [^fact-10]: **THU in-form player** — Elmin Rastoder — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.31. [^fact-11]: **St. Gallen key absence** — Jozo Stanic out (injury), 659 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **THU key absence** — Michael Heule out (injury), 720 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .