# AGF vs Viborg FF > Superliga · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 16:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/969) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** AGF 6–2 Viborg FF ## Model verdict - **AGF win:** 76% - **Draw:** 14% - **Viborg FF win:** 10% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Hosts carry heavy statistical edge into decisive Superliga clash ## The stage Kickoff is Sun 17 May 2026, 16:00 UTC in the Superliga[^fact-1]. AGF are the home side in this fixture[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum The model gives a clear home verdict: Home 76% / Draw 14% / Away 10%, a wide gap and a high-confidence lean toward the hosts[^fact-2]. That backing is consistent with an Elo differential of +231 points in AGF’s favour after applying home advantage[^fact-3]. Recent results underline the gap on paper. AGF’s ten-match string reads WWDDL, yielding 1.70 points per game with 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded on average[^fact-4]. Viborg’s last ten are LDWLL (listed as four wins, two draws, four losses in the provided summary), producing 1.40 points per game with 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The contrast is clearest defensively: AGF’s conceded rate of 0.80 per match compares to Viborg’s 1.10 in the same span[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel AGF’s most-notable recent contributor in the data is Henrik Dalsgaard — two goals and no assists across his last five appearances, with an average rating of 7.11[^fact-9]. Viborg’s in-form name in the supplied facts is Dorian Hanza, with one goal and one assist in his last four outings and an average rating of 6.72[^fact-10]. Viborg will be missing Mads Søndergaard through injury; he logged 503 minutes in the recent run before this absence[^fact-11]. That is the only specific absence noted in the dataset supplied. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model[^fact-12]. The strongest single-market edge is on Home in Match Winner: the model rates Home at 72% while the market price listed is 2.15 at Unibet, producing an edge of 25.9 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. The model also finds value on Under 2.5 goals: model 52% versus a market price of 2.38 at Betfair, an edge of 9.9 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Relatedly, the model flags No on Both Teams to Score at 49% versus a market price of 2.55 at Betfair, an edge of 9.8 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. Each of these edges is presented with a confidence tag in the supplied facts; the Home match-winner edge is the largest both in probability delta and stated confidence[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is strongly toward the home side, supported by a 76% match probability and a +231 Elo differential with home advantage applied, while recent form and defensive numbers favour the hosts as well[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. The clearest market inefficiency in the analysed set is the Home match-winner price versus the model’s 72% rating, followed by modest value flagged on low-scoring outcomes and on no BTTS across the three markets compared[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 16:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 76% / Draw 14% / Away 10% (source: model; confidence high, 62 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — AGF vs Viborg FF — Elo differential +231 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **AGF recent form** — WWDDL last 10: 4-5-1 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Viborg FF recent form** — LDWLL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 72% vs market price 2.15 at Unibet, edge 25.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 52% vs market price 2.38 at Betfair, edge 9.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 49% vs market price 2.55 at Betfair, edge 9.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **AGF in-form player** — Henrik Dalsgaard — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.11. [^fact-10]: **Viborg FF in-form player** — Dorian Hanza — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.72. [^fact-11]: **Viborg FF key absence** — Mads Søndergaard out (injury), 503 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .