# Sønderjyske Fodbold vs Nordsjælland > Superliga · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 16:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/970) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Sønderjyske Fodbold 1–4 Nordsjælland ## Model verdict - **Sønderjyske Fodbold win:** 40% - **Draw:** 37% - **Nordsjælland win:** 22% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home Elo edge meets a model that prizes a draw ## The stage This fixture kicks off on Sun 17 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC in the Danish Superliga[^fact-1]. The ordering of the pairing places Sønderjyske at home against Nordsjælland, making this a home assignment for Sønderjyske and an away trip for Nordsjælland[^fact-1][^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Recent runs point to contrasting profiles. Sønderjyske have managed a WLWLL sequence in their last ten league matches, recorded as 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses, producing 1.10 points per game and averaging 1.00 goals scored while conceding 1.70 per match[^fact-4]. Nordsjælland carry a steadier set of results: DDLDW in their last ten, recorded as 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses, with 1.60 points per game and a much tighter goal profile of 1.10 scored and 0.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Elo adjusts the narrative slightly in favour of the hosts: the Elo differential, with home advantage applied, gives Sønderjyske a +37 edge over Nordsjælland[^fact-3]. That edge sits alongside a probabilistic model that still places the highest single probability on a home result but with an unusual clustering — Home 40%, Draw 37% and Away 22% — and the model flags its confidence as low because the top two outcomes are separated by only 3 percentage points[^fact-2]. In plain terms: Elo thinks the hosts have a measurable quality edge, form and defensive steadiness point to Nordsjælland as harder to break down, and the model’s probabilities are finely balanced between a home win and a draw[^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Sønderjyske’s most notable in-form contributor is O. Hyseni, who has produced 2 goals and 2 assists across his last 5 appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.45 for that period[^fact-9]. The club’s most significant current absence is T. Sommer, sidelined by injury after contributing 630 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence[^fact-11]. For Nordsjælland, Prince Amoako Junior is the clearest attacking form player, with 2 goals in his last 5 outings and an average rating of 7.14[^fact-10]. They will, however, be missing Alexander Lind through suspension; Lind accounted for 392 minutes in the recent run before that suspension came into effect[^fact-12]. Those availability notes matter: Sønderjyske lose a regular contributor in minutes terms, while Nordsjælland lose a suspended player who had a non-negligible share of minutes[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model flags three clear market inefficiencies across three markets compared with prices observed at Betfair and notes that three markets were analysed[^fact-13]. The strongest single edge is on Under 2.5 goals: model probability 62% versus a market price of 2.55 at Betfair, yielding an edge of 23.0 percentage points and marked as high confidence[^fact-6][^fact-13]. A related, corroborating angle is the “No” on Both Teams to Score: model 56% versus a market price of 2.63 at Betfair, an 18.4 percentage point edge and also high confidence[^fact-7][^fact-13]. That pair of recommendations aligns with the teams’ recent defensive numbers — Sønderjyske conceding 1.70 per match and Nordsjælland 0.80 per match — and the model’s lower expected aggregate scoring for this fixture[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. Finally, the model highlights value in the draw in the Match Winner market: a 42% model probability against a market price of 3.90 at Betfair, an edge of 16.0 percentage points and denoted high confidence[^fact-8][^fact-13]. This sits consistently with the model’s own overall distribution, where the draw is only narrowly behind the home outcome (Home 40% / Draw 37% / Away 22%) and the model’s confidence is described as low due to the small gap between the top two outcomes[^fact-2][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The picture is compact: Elo gives Sønderjyske a clear quality uplift at home, but form and defensive evidence make Nordsjælland a tough proposition, and the model’s probabilities reflect a tight contest with a substantial draw probability[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-2]. The strongest objective model signals are for a low-scoring game — Under 2.5 goals and No on Both Teams to Score — while the market prices make the draw the single item with the clearest quoted edge relative to model probabilities[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 16:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 40% / Draw 37% / Away 22% (source: model; confidence low, 3 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SON vs FCN — Elo differential +37 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SON recent form** — WLWLL last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **FCN recent form** — DDLDW last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 62% vs market price 2.55 at Betfair, edge 23.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 56% vs market price 2.63 at Betfair, edge 18.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Draw in Match Winner — model 42% vs market price 3.90 at Betfair, edge 16.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **SON in-form player** — O. Hyseni — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.45. [^fact-10]: **FCN in-form player** — Prince Amoako Junior — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.14. [^fact-11]: **SON key absence** — T. Sommer out (injury), 630 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **FCN key absence** — Alexander Lind out (suspension), 392 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .