# LOSC Lille vs Auxerre > Ligue 1 · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/974) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** LOSC Lille 0–2 Auxerre ## Model verdict - **LOSC Lille win:** 77% - **Draw:** 16% - **Auxerre win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Lille’s momentum and Elo edge make under 2.5 the smart lean ## The stage This Ligue 1 fixture kicks off Sun 17 May 2026, 19:00 UTC, with LOSC at home.[^fact-1] The model gives a commanding Home probability of 77% against a 7% away chance, placing a very large confidence gap of 61 percentage points over the nearest runner-up.[^fact-2] The underlying Elo picture reinforces that stance: Lille carry a +296-point Elo differential once home advantage is applied.[^fact-3] ## Form & momentum LOSC arrive on a steady run: WDWDW in their last 10, an effective 7-3-0 record, worth 2.40 points per game and producing 1.60 goals while conceding 0.40 on average.[^fact-4] Auxerre’s last 10 are more mixed at WWLDD, a 3-5-2 split, delivering 1.40 points per game with 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match.[^fact-5] That combination — superior recent results for Lille and a near-300 Elo buffer — signals clear momentum toward the home side and a structural defensive advantage for the hosts.[^fact-3][^fact-4] ## Personnel LOSC’s offensive form has a local highlight in Hákon Arnar Haraldsson, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.33 over that span.[^fact-9] Auxerre’s most productive recent performer is Lassine Sinayoko, with 3 goals and 1 assist in his last five outings and an average rating of 7.40.[^fact-10] Injuries bite both squads: Lille will be without Nabil Bentaleb, who has contributed 503 minutes in the recent run, while Auxerre will miss Bryan Okoh, who had provided 821 minutes in his recent involvement.[^fact-11][^fact-12] Those absences are not minor: losing a midfielder like Bentaleb and a defensive presence like Okoh reshapes how each side balances risk and control, and they are embedded in the model’s projections.[^fact-11][^fact-12] ## Where the model sees value Three specific market comparisons were analysed against the model.[^fact-13] - Under 2.5 goals: the model places a 71% probability on under 2.5, versus a market price implying a lower chance at 2.22 on 1xBet — an edge of 25.5 percentage points and flagged with high confidence.[^fact-6] - Both Teams to Score — No: the model rates ‘No’ at 66% while the market prices that outcome at 1.83 on 888Sport, producing a 10.9-point edge with high confidence.[^fact-7] - Match winner — Home: the model’s Home probability is 78% against a market price of 1.41 on 1xBet, an edge of 7.1 percentage points (mid confidence).[^fact-8] Each edge aligns with the narrative from form and Elo: a strong Lille side, conservative conceded-goals numbers, and Auxerre’s more modest output make low-scoring outcomes and a home winner the areas where model and market diverge most.[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8] ## Verdict The model’s lean is emphatic: home favoured at roughly 77–78% while the clearest market inefficiencies sit on under 2.5 goals (model 71%) and ‘both teams to score — No’ (model 66%); those insights ride on Lille’s recent defensive solidity and a near-300 Elo advantage with the listed absences already built into projections.[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-11][^fact-12] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 19:00 UTC — Ligue 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 77% / Draw 16% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 61 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LOSC vs AUX — Elo differential +296 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LOSC recent form** — WDWDW last 10: 7-3-0 (W-D-L), 2.40 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 0.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **AUX recent form** — WWLDD last 10: 3-5-2 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 71% vs market price 2.22 at 1xbet, edge 25.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 66% vs market price 1.83 at 888Sport, edge 10.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Home in Match Winner — model 78% vs market price 1.41 at 1xbet, edge 7.1 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **LOSC in-form player** — Hákon Arnar Haraldsson — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.33. [^fact-10]: **AUX in-form player** — Lassine Sinayoko — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.40. [^fact-11]: **LOSC key absence** — Nabil Bentaleb out (injury), 503 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **AUX key absence** — Bryan Okoh out (injury), 821 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .