# Brest vs Angers SCO > Ligue 1 · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/981) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Brest 1–1 Angers SCO ## Model verdict - **Brest win:** 77% - **Draw:** 14% - **Angers SCO win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans heavy to home as goals and BTTS trend down ## The stage This late-May Ligue 1 fixture kicks off Sun 17 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC and is framed as a home assignment for Brest[^fact-1][^fact-3]. The calendar spot and the home tag feed directly into the model’s picture for the contest[^fact-1][^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Recent results underline a jagged run for both sides. Brest arrive with a 2-2-6 record across their last 10 matches (W-D-L), collecting 0.80 points per game and averaging 1.10 goals scored while conceding 2.00 per match[^fact-4]. Angers’s last-10 reads 1-3-6 (W-D-L), worth 0.60 points per game and yielding 0.60 goals scored against 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo gap is sizable: Brest hold a +210-point edge over Angers after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Those three data streams — form, per-game output and Elo — push the expectation toward a dominant home side[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Brest’s in-form attacking figure is Ludovic Ajorque, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.01 in that span[^fact-9]. A notable absence for Brest is Soumaïla Coulibaly, ruled out injured after 275 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. For Angers, Lilian Raolisoa had contributed 0 goals and 2 assists across his last five outings with an average rating of 6.72 before suspension removes him for this match; Raolisoa accounted for 755 minutes in the recent run prior to missing this game[^fact-10][^fact-12]. Those personnel shifts — a frontline presence for Brest and the loss of Raolisoa for Angers — map onto the form lines and magnify the home side’s edge[^fact-9][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model gives the home match-winner a 77% probability, with draw and away at 14% and 9% respectively; the model’s confidence gap to the runner-up is 63 percentage points[^fact-2]. Market comparisons show specific edges: the model projects Home in Match Winner at 70% against a market price of 1.89 at 1xbet, an edge of 17.1 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. For totals, the model favors Under 2.5 goals at 59% versus the market 2.05 at 1xbet, an edge of 10.1 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. On both teams to score, the model prefers No at 57% versus the market price 2.07 at Unibet, an edge of 9.1 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. These three market comparisons were the ones analysed against the model[^fact-13]. Together, they signal both a strong single-outcome lean and a lower-scoring expectation: the model’s win probability, its Under 2.5 projection and the No BTTS stance align across the same basic themes[^fact-2][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The quantitative picture is unambiguous: a pronounced home lean driven by a +210 Elo differential with home advantage applied and a model that assigns 77% to the home win (14% draw, 9% away) — a view reinforced by the three market edges identified on match winner, Under 2.5 and No BTTS[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. Personnel notes sharpen that profile: Ajorque is the home side’s recent focal point while Angers lose Raolisoa to suspension, a removal of 755 minutes of recent involvement[^fact-9][^fact-12]. Expect a game tilted toward the hosts with a lower overall-goal tenor and a meaningful gap between model and market on the straight home outcome and low-scoring options[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 19:00 UTC — Ligue 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 77% / Draw 14% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 63 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — B29 vs ANG — Elo differential +210 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **B29 recent form** — LLLDD last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ANG recent form** — DLLDL last 10: 1-3-6 (W-D-L), 0.60 PPG, 0.60 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 70% vs market price 1.89 at 1xbet, edge 17.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 59% vs market price 2.05 at 1xbet, edge 10.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 57% vs market price 2.07 at Unibet, edge 9.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **B29 in-form player** — Ludovic Ajorque — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.01. [^fact-10]: **ANG in-form player** — Lilian Raolisoa — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.72. [^fact-11]: **B29 key absence** — Soumaïla Coulibaly out (injury), 275 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **ANG key absence** — Lilian Raolisoa out (suspension), 755 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .