# Örgryte vs IFK Göteborg > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Tue 19 May 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/985) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Örgryte 2–3 IFK Göteborg ## Model verdict - **Örgryte win:** 33% - **Draw:** 30% - **IFK Göteborg win:** 36% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Defensive tightness and small margins set to decide outcome ## The stage Allsvenskan action arrives on Tue 19 May 2026 with kickoff at 13:00 UTC; this fixture sits squarely in the domestic campaign and carries the short-term weight of league momentum and points redistribution[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences point to two sides without sustained winning runs. Örgryte arrive on a run summarised as LLDLL across their last seven matches, producing a 1-2-4 record (W-D-L) and just 0.71 points per game; their attack averages 0.86 goals scored while the defence concedes 2.57 per match[^fact-4]. Gäteborg’s recent ten-game ledger reads LLDDD — a 2-4-4 line good for 1.00 point per game, with an average of 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded[^fact-5]. Model and market signals are closely matched. The model gives the home side a 33% chance, a draw 30%, and the away win 36% — a distribution flagged with low confidence and only a 3 percentage-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. That narrow spread is consistent with the underlying Elo relationship; after applying home advantage the Elo edge sits at +50 points in favour of Örgryte[^fact-3]. The table of signals therefore describes a fixture where form threads and a modest Elo advantage point one way, while outcome probabilities remain finely balanced[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Örgryte’s most noticeable contributor over recent weeks has been Christoffer Styffe, who has scored twice in his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 6.80[^fact-9]. That output is one of the few attacking constants on a team whose goals-per-game average is under one[^fact-4][^fact-9]. For Gäteborg, David Kruse is the in-form presence: one goal and one assist in his last five matches, with an average rating of 7.24[^fact-10]. Gäteborg also cope without Arbnor Mucolli due to injury, an absence noted as a key availability issue for the away side[^fact-11]. All named players and their recent returns are reflected in the model’s short-range assessments[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Markets were explicitly compared in three areas against the model[^fact-12], and the clearest divergences sit around low-scoring outcomes and shared points. - Under 2.5 goals: the model assigns a 60% probability versus a market price of 2.10 at 10Bet, producing an edge of 12.9 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. Given both teams’ sub-1.0 goals-per-game averages across recent runs, the model’s lean toward fewer goals is coherent with the underlying data[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. - Draw in Match Winner: the model gives a 37% chance to a draw versus the market price of 3.86 at 1xbet, generating an 11.0 percentage-point edge and high confidence[^fact-7]. The narrow model distribution between home, draw and away probabilities supports why a stalemate is a notable market inefficiency here[^fact-2][^fact-7]. - Both Teams to Score — No: the model’s 55% probability contrasts with a market price of 2.16 at Unibet, an 8.8 percentage-point edge marked with high confidence[^fact-8]. That view aligns with the low scoring outputs and the model’s emphasis on a likely conservative pattern of goals in the fixture[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-8]. Each of these edges is reported with the model’s confidence annotation; the biggest single numeric discrepancy is the Under 2.5 goals value, where the model’s 60% sits markedly above the market line[^fact-6]. All three value opportunities are those the quantitative process has highlighted after comparing three markets to model probabilities[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is towards a tightly contested game with an elevated chance of low scoring and a significant probability mass on a draw, even as Örgryte retain a modest Elo advantage after home adjustment; the overall model split — Home 33%, Draw 30%, Away 36% — underlines how small margins are likely to decide the outcome[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Tue 19 May 2026, 13:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 33% / Draw 30% / Away 36% (source: model; confidence low, 3 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Örgryte vs GOT — Elo differential +50 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Örgryte recent form** — LLDLL last 7: 1-2-4 (W-D-L), 0.71 PPG, 0.86 goals scored / 2.57 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **GOT recent form** — LLDDD last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 60% vs market price 2.10 at 10Bet, edge 12.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Draw in Match Winner — model 37% vs market price 3.86 at 1xbet, edge 11.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 55% vs market price 2.16 at Unibet, edge 8.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **Örgryte in-form player** — Christoffer Styffe — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.80. [^fact-10]: **GOT in-form player** — David Kruse — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.24. [^fact-11]: **GOT key absence** — Arbnor Mucolli out (injury). [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .