# Djurgården vs Sirius > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Mon 18 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/986) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Djurgården 2–3 Sirius ## Model verdict - **Djurgården win:** 63% - **Draw:** 23% - **Sirius win:** 14% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and attacking profile set the narrative ahead of kick-off ## The stage This fixture kicks off on Mon 18 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC in Allsvenskan[^fact-1]. The contest registers as a clear home-favourite projection from the model, which assigns the home side a 63% chance, with a draw on 23% and the away team on 14%[^fact-2]. The model’s confidence is substantive: there is a 40 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent results paint a paradox. The nominal home side has compiled a WWDLL run across their last 10 matches, translating into 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats with 2.00 points per game, averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visitors, by contrast, arrive on a much hotter streak: WWDWW across their last 10, recorded as 9 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats with 2.80 points per game, averaging 2.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Elo analysis, with home advantage applied, gives the home side an edge of +111 points, a sizable single-metric advantage that helps explain why the model strongly favours the hosts[^fact-3]. In short: form figures reward the away team’s recent surge, but Elo and the model both lean to the home side[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Two individual runs stand out. For the home side, B. Hegland has contributed 1 goal and 6 assists in his last 5 appearances, carrying an average rating of 7.99 across that spell[^fact-9]. For the visitors, Isak Bjerkebo has been a consistent finisher with 6 goals and 0 assists in his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 7.71[^fact-10]. A significant unavailability affects the away team: Henrik Castegren is out through suspension after contributing 810 minutes in the recent run, a loss that removes a heavily-used defensive presence[^fact-11]. Those two in-form profiles and the suspension combine to shape where each side looks strongest and most vulnerable on match day[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Three market edges stand out when the model’s probabilities are compared to available prices across three markets[^fact-12]. - Match Winner — Home: the model implies a 68% probability against a market price of 2.20 at bet365, creating an edge of 22.4 percentage points and described with high confidence[^fact-6]. - Goals Over/Under 2.5 — Over: the model rates Over 2.5 at 74% while the market price shown at 10Bet is 1.67, yielding a 14.2 point edge and high confidence[^fact-7]. - Both Teams to Score — Yes: the model sits at 74% versus a market price of 1.55 at WilliamHill, an edge of 9.2 points and again flagged as high confidence[^fact-8]. All three edges are explicit comparisons between model probability and market prices across markets that were analysed[^fact-12]. The combination of a home favourite in the match-winner market and strong probabilities for goals and both teams scoring points toward a particular game shape: a fixture expected to produce chances and goals despite the home-side advantage[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side (63% model probability) while acknowledging the visitor’s hotter recent run on form; Elo supports the home edge with a +111 differential and the market-comparison analysis surfaces high-confidence value on a home win, Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. The contest should be viewed as a home-favourite clash likely to produce goals, with individual form lines for B. Hegland and Isak Bjerkebo and the absence of Henrik Castegren all important for how that narrative plays out[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 18 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 63% / Draw 23% / Away 14% (source: model; confidence high, 40 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — DJU vs SIR — Elo differential +111 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **DJU recent form** — WWDLL last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 2.50 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SIR recent form** — WWDWW last 10: 9-1-0 (W-D-L), 2.80 PPG, 2.80 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 68% vs market price 2.20 at bet365, edge 22.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 74% vs market price 1.67 at 10Bet, edge 14.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 74% vs market price 1.55 at WilliamHill, edge 9.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **DJU in-form player** — B. Hegland — 1 goals, 6 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.99. [^fact-10]: **SIR in-form player** — Isak Bjerkebo — 6 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.71. [^fact-11]: **SIR key absence** — Henrik Castegren out (suspension), 810 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .