# Arsenal vs Burnley > Premier League · Kickoff Mon 18 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/988) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Arsenal 1–0 Burnley ## Model verdict - **Arsenal win:** 67% - **Draw:** 26% - **Burnley win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Huge Elo edge drives model to home-side confidence ## The stage This fixture kicks off Mon 18 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC in Premier League competition.[^fact-1] The model assigns a heavy probability to the home side, listing Home 67% / Draw 26% / Away 7%, a clear separation with a 41 percentage-point gap to the runner-up and high confidence in that ranking.[^fact-2] ## Form & momentum The underlying numbers place a stark contrast between the two teams. The home team arrives with a recent record of WWWLL over the last 10 matches (6-0-4 W-D-L), averaging 1.80 points per game, 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match.[^fact-4] The visitors have a patchier run: DLLLL in the same span (0-3-7 W-D-L), averaging 0.30 points per game, 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per match.[^fact-5] That gulf is reinforced by the Elo metric: an Elo differential of +495 points in favour of the home side after applying home advantage.[^fact-3] An edge of that magnitude is unusual and consistent with the model's strong home bias in the probability split.[^fact-2] ## Personnel The home side leans on Viktor Gyökeres as the principal in-form figure, with three goals and one assist across his last five appearances and an average match rating of 6.92 in that period.[^fact-7] His recent output is the clearest attacking indicator available in the facts for the hosts.[^fact-7] The visitors' most notable contributor in the brief sample is Jaidon Anthony, who has one goal and one assist in his last five outings and an average rating of 6.63.[^fact-8] That level of involvement is modest compared with the hosts' cited attacking numbers but is the principal creative outlet reported for the away side.[^fact-8] Availability issues matter here. The home side will be without Eberechi Eze through injury; he contributed 516 minutes in the recent run referenced by the data.[^fact-9] The visitors are missing Mike Tresor, who logged 18 minutes in the same recent sample before his absence.[^fact-10] Both absences are short-form facts supplied; their minutes offer a crude guide to how disruptive each loss might be.[^fact-9][^fact-10] ## Where the model sees value Markets analysed against the model total three comparisons.[^fact-11] The clearest single market edge identified is on Both Teams to Score — a Yes selection — where the model gives 44% probability versus a Betfair market price implying lower probability at 2.55; the stated edge is +4.4 percentage points, though with low confidence flagged by the model.[^fact-6] That is the top edge the model surfaces relative to available market pricing.[^fact-6][^fact-11] No other specific market edges are supplied in the facts; the broader model verdict and the large Elo advantage form the analytic backbone for match expectations rather than granular market divergences beyond the BTTS spot.[^fact-3][^fact-2] ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side (Home 67% / Draw 26% / Away 7%), a stance supported by a +495 Elo edge and contrasting form lines: the hosts’ 1.80 PPG, 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match versus the visitors’ 0.30 PPG, 0.90 scored and 2.20 conceded.[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5] The only market-level value flagged in the supplied facts is a low-confidence edge on Both Teams to Score Yes at 44% versus 2.55 in the market.[^fact-6][^fact-11] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 18 May 2026, 19:00 UTC — Premier League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 67% / Draw 26% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 41 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ARS vs BUR — Elo differential +495 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ARS recent form** — WWWLL last 10: 6-0-4 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **BUR recent form** — DLLLL last 10: 0-3-7 (W-D-L), 0.30 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 2.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 44% vs market price 2.55 at Betfair, edge 4.4 pp (low confidence). [^fact-7]: **ARS in-form player** — Viktor Gyökeres — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.92. [^fact-8]: **BUR in-form player** — Jaidon Anthony — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.63. [^fact-9]: **ARS key absence** — Eberechi Eze out (injury), 516 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **BUR key absence** — Mike Tresor out (injury), 18 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .