# Monza vs Juve Stabia > Serie B · Kickoff Tue 19 May 2026, 18:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/989) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Monza 2–1 Juve Stabia ## Model verdict - **Monza win:** 70% - **Draw:** 22% - **Juve Stabia win:** 8% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Monza odds and model edge point to a clear home dominance ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Tue 19 May 2026, 18:00 UTC in a Serie B fixture that shapes final table impressions for both sides[^fact-1]. The model places a clear probability advantage on the home side — Home 70% / Draw 22% / Away 8% — with a high-confidence 48 percentage-point gap to the runner-up, signalling an asymmetric outcome expectation[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form paints Monza as the steadier outfit over the last 10 matches: their sequence reads DDLWW and is summarised as 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss in that window, delivering 1.70 points per game and averaging 1.70 goals scored while conceding 0.90 per match[^fact-4]. Juve Stabia arrive with a DWDLD sequence — 3-5-2 in wins-draws-losses across the last 10 — and a 1.40 points-per-game return, scoring 1.40 and conceding 1.20 on average[^fact-5]. The underlying quality gap is stark: Monza holds an Elo edge of +208 points after accounting for home advantage, a margin that typically maps to a substantive superiority on paper[^fact-3]. Taken together, form numbers and the Elo differential favour Monza both in recent outputs and in longer-run strength assessments[^fact-4][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Monza’s in-form attacking outlet in the short run is Patrick Cutrone, who has contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances and carries an average rating of 6.96 across those games[^fact-9]. On the other flank, Juve Stabia’s most notable recent creative work has come from Alessio Cacciamani, with 0 goals, 2 assists in his last 4 appearances and an average rating of 6.99 in that span[^fact-10]. The absence lists sharpen the contrast. Monza will be without Pedro Obiang due to suspension; Obiang logged 580 minutes in the recent run prior to his unavailability[^fact-11]. Juve Stabia miss Salim Diakité through injury, a player who accumulated 601 minutes in the recent period before his absence[^fact-12]. These two absences remove substantial minutes from each midfield/defensive group and are the most prominent personnel changes referenced in the model’s inputs[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s market comparisons cover 3 markets in total[^fact-13]. The clearest edge is on the Home Match Winner line: the model assigns the home outcome 72% versus a market price implying 1.67 at 1xbet, producing an edge of 12.0 percentage points and labelled with high confidence[^fact-6]. That is the dominant statistical mismatch between model and market in both magnitude and confidence[^fact-6]. Secondary value sits on the Under 2.5 goals market. The model gives Under 2.5 a 57% probability against a market price of 1.97 at 1xbet, an edge of 5.9 percentage points with mid confidence[^fact-7]. This aligns with Monza’s recent defensive profile of conceding 0.90 goals per match and Juve Stabia’s 1.20 conceded per match, suggesting a lower-scoring outcome is plausible given recent outputs[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7]. A lower-confidence, smaller edge appears on Both Teams to Score: the model favours No at 56% versus a market price of 1.91 at WilliamHill, an edge of 3.2 percentage points and labelled low confidence[^fact-8]. That view is consistent with the combination of Monza’s tighter goals-against rate and the model’s overall lean toward a home win[^fact-4][^fact-2][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is emphatic: a strong home probability (70%) supported by a +208 Elo edge, recent form advantages, and a clear market mismatch on the Home Match Winner line — the model’s highest-confidence value pick[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Tue 19 May 2026, 18:00 UTC — Serie B [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 70% / Draw 22% / Away 8% (source: model; confidence high, 48 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — MON vs JUV — Elo differential +208 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **MON recent form** — DDLWW last 10: 4-5-1 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **JUV recent form** — DWDLD last 10: 3-5-2 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 72% vs market price 1.67 at 1xbet, edge 12.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 57% vs market price 1.97 at 1xbet, edge 5.9 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 56% vs market price 1.91 at WilliamHill, edge 3.2 pp (low confidence). [^fact-9]: **MON in-form player** — Patrick Cutrone — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.96. [^fact-10]: **JUV in-form player** — Alessio Cacciamani — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.99. [^fact-11]: **MON key absence** — Pedro Obiang out (suspension), 580 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **JUV key absence** — Salim Diakité out (injury), 601 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .