# Sporting Charleroi vs OH Leuven > Pro League · Kickoff Tue 19 May 2026, 18:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/991) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Sporting Charleroi 1–1 OH Leuven ## Model verdict - **Sporting Charleroi win:** 78% - **Draw:** 12% - **OH Leuven win:** 10% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear home edge as chances point toward a low-scoring finish ## The stage This is a Pro League fixture kicking off on Tue 19 May 2026, 18:30 UTC. [^fact-1] The model assigns a dominant Home probability of 78% with Draw 12% and Away 10%, reflecting a high-confidence gap to the runner-up. [^fact-2] ## Form & momentum Sporting Charleroi arrive with a sequence of results shown as LWWWD in their last 10 matches (4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses) and an output of 1.30 points per game, scoring 0.90 goals and conceding 1.00 per match in that run. [^fact-4] OH Leuven’s recent ten shows WLDLL (3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses) and a points-per-game of 1.10, with 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5] The underlying rating picture reinforces the gap: Sporting Charleroi carry an Elo edge of +191 points after home advantage has been applied. [^fact-3] Between the raw recent numbers and Elo, the momentum picture is tilted clearly toward the host, even if Charleroi’s goals-per-game is under one. [^fact-4] [^fact-3] ## Personnel Charleroi’s in-form conduit is Kevin Van Den Kerkhof, who has contributed 1 goal and 3 assists in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.40. [^fact-9] Leuven counterpoints with Abdoul Karim Traoré, who has 2 goals and 1 assist across his last three appearances and an average rating of 7.22. [^fact-10] Availability questions matter: Charleroi will be without Yassine Titraoui due to injury after 546 minutes in the recent run. [^fact-11] Leuven will be missing Roggerio Nyakossi, also sidelined with injury after contributing 810 minutes in the recent run. [^fact-12] Those absences strip minutes from each side’s recent rotation and slightly narrows options for both managers. [^fact-11] [^fact-12] ## Where the model sees value Across three markets analysed against public lines, the model identifies multiple edges versus market prices. [^fact-13] Primary value: Home in Match Winner — the model gives Charleroi 74% probability while the market lists 1.80 at Coral, producing an edge of 18.6 percentage points with high confidence. [^fact-6] Goal profile: the model favours Under 2.5 goals at 58% versus the market price 2.07 at bet365, an edge of 9.3 percentage points with high confidence, signalling a tilt toward a low-scoring game. [^fact-7] Both teams: the model puts No on Both Teams to Score at 54% against a 2.05 market price at bet365, an edge of 5.3 percentage points with mid confidence. [^fact-8] Those three value calls map to the model’s overall probabilities and the defensive skew of the recent per-match numbers: Charleroi’s 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded, Leuven’s 1.10 scored and 1.40 conceded. [^fact-4] [^fact-5] ## Verdict The model’s lean is emphatic: a home victory is the clear baseline given a 78% model probability and a +191 Elo advantage at home; the data also favours a low-scoring fixture with edges on Under 2.5 and No for both teams to score. [^fact-2] [^fact-3] [^fact-7] [^fact-8] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Tue 19 May 2026, 18:30 UTC — Pro League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 78% / Draw 12% / Away 10% (source: model; confidence high, 66 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SPC vs OHL — Elo differential +191 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SPC recent form** — LWWWD last 10: 4-1-5 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **OHL recent form** — WLDLL last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 74% vs market price 1.80 at Coral, edge 18.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 58% vs market price 2.07 at bet365, edge 9.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 54% vs market price 2.05 at bet365, edge 5.3 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **SPC in-form player** — Kevin Van Den Kerkhof — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.40. [^fact-10]: **OHL in-form player** — Abdoul Karim Traoré — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.22. [^fact-11]: **SPC key absence** — Yassine Titraoui out (injury), 546 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **OHL key absence** — Roggerio Nyakossi out (injury), 810 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .